Check out post 2162 above. I think we’re in danger of overlooking a very good point: SCL says she’s going to “do work-ups on” Nava and MHayeToNight. In short order, Night falls, Dawn breaks and SCL turns up dead. If we accept the possibility that the scum thought SCL was the Apprentice, do we construe her kill as a protective one? If so, it gives us two fairly obvious suspects.
Of the two, Nava has given us virtually nothing. MHaye has posted more, but in a very cautious style - see Fretful’s earlier work-up. IIRC, Fretful felt that the abstention vote on MTS was a sign of honest conscientiousness, hence probably town. I’m not so sure - it’s also an excellent way to come out smelling of roses. (Yes, this wine in front of me is dashed hard to put down, since you ask.)
So, FOS MHaye and Nava
I don’t know who to vote for yet - I may just pick someone quiet, because we do need people to post if we’re going to get anywhere.
I’m pointing out a possibility, not advocating your death. One of the reasons I’ve been harping on it so much is to see if I can get anyone to agree with me–kinda like the Mad strategy of trying to get scum out and visible, except I actually have an exit strategy (being a Monk and all).
Let me try and save you the trouble, at least for a couple of things that are likely to be included in any case against me.
I have two non-votes on my record, both due to the game taking a backseat to life at key moments. Not much else I can say in my defense about them. Unfortunately, they provide an opportunity for scum to try and build or support a case in a way that is difficult to refute. I would expect scum to at least swing at such softballs that happen to fly their way. I would also expect town not to like them very much either. If they end up contributing to me being at the least suspected and at the most dunked, that’s just the way it goes.
Then there was the little spurt of FOSing and counter-suspicion from early yesterDay, involving myself, IdleThoughts, FlyingCowOfDoom, and NAF. It seemed to rub some people the wrong way. YMMV. What sticks out the most in that exchange, to me, is NAF’s commentary. The exchange didn’t last long, but my gut reaction was that NAF was pouncing on a perceived weakness, as he was not mentioned in or otherwise the target of my FOS. Whether he was pouncing as town or as scum remains to be seen, but he pounced.
Well, it didn’t take too long to go back through her posts.
The only one that set my scumdar atilt was when she said she wasn’t going to be looking very hard for scum in the **Mtgman ** bandwagon. Other than that, I guess it’s been her suspicion of me that’s making me suspicious of her. Although I dislike no-votes, she seems to have an out-of-game reason for it, not that she can’t decide or wants to keep her hands clean kind of thing. **Cookies ** smells a little better to me now that I re-read. MMMMMMMMMMMMM, Cookies…
Huh. Well, not a whole lot TO catch up on but thanks for clearing that up amrussell. I still find it odd that Diggit, however, didn’t correct you at all. Seems to me, at the time, you could have meant either A. “I will take a closer look at zuma now” thinking he was the sub for Auto or B. “I will take a closer look at Auto now” thinking that it was zuma who is the “new” version of him. Could have gone both ways and it just adds on to the suspicions I have of him (Diggit) that he posted a few times after that mistake yet didn’t correct you. Didn’t want to draw more attention to himself if it was B that you meant, maybe?
Come on, Diggit, you haven’t replied to me yet, yet you’ve been replying to all that Kyrie says. I realize this is because he’s your best suspect right now but you are mine so, what’s going on? Do you have any explanations or retorts?
ummm… about the confusion thingy? What should I explain there? I think I didn’t see it until you corrected amrussell.
And what kind of tactic do you think that would be? I mean, if he had posted a review combining my and zuma’s posts (or maybe Autolycus’s and zuma’s), I’m sure someone would have told him. And… what would I have gained? Or lost?
It’s one of those cases where I simply have nothing to add/substract. Anyway, as far as I can tell, nobody else corrected him either (and that includes zuma, by the way).
Or is there something else you wanted me to address?
Yes, but I already am finding you suspicious from other things on past Days so I only noticed you. Call it biasness if you will, I suppose, but it just seemed like another thing added on in what I seem to see as shady behavior. If I’m mistaken, then I guess time will tell, but as of right now, especially being how you were the only other name that I was left over with yesterDay, you are the only player I have even remote strong suspicions on.
Having said that, I still find it hard to let go of Pleonast but that’s because of something having built up for so long, I think. It’s really hard to believe him, especially after he’s still in the game after last Night, but that isn’t shady in itself and certainly not attributed to him from his own doings.
And Mal I still never quite gave the ghost up on either…but right now, I only have the strongest pings on Diggit. As I said yesterday in my very long post, CK was actually VOTING for him, so I felt that said either it was scum/town or scum/scum. And while it COULD be town/town, like I said in the same post (that post can be found here by the way for all you Cookies of the world) I just don’t feel that two players who would both be town would give of such bad vibes. Maybe my meter is broken but I don’t feel it is… at least not in the duo there.
My point is, going back to replying to you, personally, Diggit, is that a noncorrection just looks really off to me.
You also said you missed it before, even though it was just one sentence in the post. What do you usually do, just skip over posts and read certain ones that may apply to you? I find the game is even more confusing without giving each post at least two read overs. But I guess that’s just me.
You still get a demerit, Idle. I’m only anal about including or linking to analysis in a post that contains a vote. Now you’re just cluttering up the thread.
It’s not like it hasn’t happened before, though. In M3, after I miscounted the votes at the end of a Day I posted a gentle reminder to Gadarene if he had followed established procedure when there was a tie in votes. tirial took that to be an elaborate plan to… dunno. Confuse everyone?
And this time I didn’t even make the original mistake.
You can’t twist “didn’t seem to leave any breadcrumbs indicating it” and “might be a small point in Malacandra’s favor” into “Having initially thought Mal was cleared, he changes his mind…”
And while we’re at it, Vote: Malacandra. Those pile-on votes with no analysis after Queuing and I posted our Hal analysis early on day 4, before anyone had a good reason to vote MtS are still bugging me, and Mal’s bugs the most, along with all the other reasons already mentioned.
I’ll be going back and looking at Diggit’s history regarding his alleged crusader plot. I initially thought it was odd that he kept bringing that up, as I feel that the crusader would be low on scum’s list of priorities. I remember getting into an argument in M2 with JSexton about whether the vig was good for the town or bad for the town. JSexton claimed it was bad for the town.
I still hold that it’s a benefit to the town, but since M2 (my first game), I now believe it’s a role fraught with complications, at least early in the game, and far less valuable to the town than investigative or protective roles. I think it may be just a case of Diggit over-valuing his original role in this game and I didn’t think too much of it at the time. It may deserve another look though.
Looking back, I think you’ve got a point - you were not emphatic that Mal was clear. That said, your assessment of Hal’s change of vote possibly clearing Malacandra was strong enough that when your suspicions emerged, you felt the need to revisit the Oracle’s posts - so if you didn’t change your mind, per se, you certainly had to recheck your thinking:
I will put my hand up and say that in the absence of obvious scum tells, I’m looking for more subtle ones - which necessarily means a higher risk of false positives. I think that’s OK, provided that (as you’ve done) people are prepared to defend themselves. In fact, anything that generates more substantive posts is probably on balance a good thing.
Hey all, still working up a bit of analysis. What I am trying to do is take a look at all of the players that were Night Killed and see if there is a common theme amongst them. It may prove fruitless, but it is slow going and my time is more limited this week than it was before. So thanks to sach for posting the post listings. That will speed things up quite a bit.
Some other data I have collected that may be interesting, may be not.
Player’s post counts for today as of about 5 minutes before I started writing this.
Some interesting things in here.
USCDiver 1
Idle Thoughts 11
Hockey Monkey 4
NAF1138 4 (including this one I think. I may be off I didn’t keep track of myself too closely)
sachertorte 6
Malacandra 0
Kyrie Eleison 6
Pleonast 0
Fretful Porpentine 3
Pygmy Rugger 17
amrussel 7
FCOD 3
Queuing 14
Zeriel 10
zuma 1
Cometothedarksidewehavecookies 2
Diggit 10
MHaye 0
fluiddruid 2
Some of the above posts have nothing directly to do with the game. (USCDiver, for instance, only posted to yell at sach for going on vacation.)
Personally I am interested in the people at the very low end Malacandra, fluiddruid, USCDiver etc. Anyone will less than 3 posts. At this point we can’t have this much non participation. Also, people who only posted about sach’s absense (FCOD, USCDiver I am looking at you) are suspect.
My highest suspicion still is with fluid. But I am going to hold off on voting until I finish my “what is the common thread” analysis.
Frankly, I personally want to hear
A) a current vote count (at work or I’d do it myself)
B) a ruling on sach while there’s enough time in the Day for it to matter.
C) from Pleonast.
Although I dislike no-votes, she seems to have an out-of-game reason for it, not that she can’t decide or wants to keep her hands clean kind of thing. **Cookies ** smells a little better to me now that I re-read. MMMMMMMMMMMMM, Cookies…