[QUOTE=Pleonast]
(Color removed.) And now all four power roles are voting for Idle.
Townies, even if you don’t trust me, even if you think one of us was recruited, there’s still at least two trusted Town players voting for Idle.
[/QUOTE]
Don’t say that Pleonast, the town should make the decision for themselves. It should not be a case of look who is voting for him, each townies should take the facts and make their own decisions.
[QUOTE=sachertorte]
Oh just shut it for a while. It’s easy for you to say.
[/QUOTE]
Easy? Most don’t seem to believe ME. 
But yeah, you’re right. I don’t know what else going back and forth will do. I think we’ve both said our halves a million times.
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
Good question.
My thoughts: if they can convince the Town that MHaye was recruited earlier, we would misinterpret to Night’s recruitment as a block. Or, since they still have a large number of Cultists, they thought it was worth a gamble to get the Town to dunk a true Monk. Or, they may have misunderstood MHaye’s classification of sachertorte and presumed Cookies was the only one (I need to reread those posts to double-check the timeline; zuma’s inebriated posts and then is late claim are suspicious, too).
On preview: Idle, you are as responsible as anyone for making this game emotional. There’s a reason I try to play coldly.
[/QUOTE]
Yeah, I know. But mine is purely self motivated. I never lash out at others though. That’s just not worth it over just a game. I try to keep mine all centered and just manic that people aren’t believing me.
I’m also feeling drained right now. Maybe I’ll just take it easy the rest of the day and leave it to fate and people’s own minds.
Besides. It’s time for lunch.
On a lighter note:
Idle Thoughts - if you are scum, then your plaintive wail speech of
**“Oh no - its not me, I swear on everything” **
is never going to be believed again 
Damn shame as well, its always so much fun to watch from the sidelines - although as a player I admit it is grating.
PS: I don’t think the font is big enough, what do you think 
There are about 7 1/2 hours left in the Day. A total of 11 out of 14 players have voted.
** Idle Thoughts ** (6) - MHaye, Hockey Monkey, Pleonast, FlyingCowOfDoom, CatinaSuit, USCDiver
** Kyrie Eleison ** (2) - Queuing, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
** sachertorte ** (2) - Idle Thoughts, NAF1138
** NAF1138 ** (1) - sachetorte
[QUOTE=CatinaSuit]
Occam’s Razor.
ie. The simplest solution is often the correct one. aka. **CatinaSuit ** goes back to basics.
Before all this started I posted a couple a few thoughts on the result of the night kill herein this post .
It effectively comes down to 2 points.
**
Then** Idle Thoughts** and **Cookies ** started claiming and counterclaiming and I will admit to having been caught up in it.
However, the only way I can see Idle Thought’s claim being correct is that the recruitment has taken place on Day 6 and I could compose several reams on how this is possible.
And in doing so, I completely contradict my initial thoughts that were made without all this going on.
So where does that leave us.
Applying Occam’s Razor.
**Idle Thoughts ** claim revolves around **MHaye ** being recruited. This is the unlikely option so **Idle Thoughts ** is a Cultist.
From this, if **Idle Thoughts ** is a cultist, so is zuma v.2
Neither of these two are the Prophet.
So vote Idle Thoughts
[/QUOTE]
I don’t see or understand why 1. is so unlikely. It’s certainly plausible. 
It IS what happened or rather what had to have happened…so what will/are you going to say then when I’m dunked and turn up Monk? You’re just giving the real scum feed and excuse to go after YOU next or others voting for me that REALLY ARE town.
[QUOTE=CatinaSuit]
Don’t say that Pleonast, the town should make the decision for themselves. It should not be a case of look who is voting for him, each townies should take the facts and make their own decisions.
[/QUOTE]
Voting based solely on others’ votes is not smart, but it’s silly to ignore how the votes are going.
It’s good for them to point out other people they find scummy (and lends credence to them being true Monks), but ultimately if they are Monks, they know Idle is not and need to vote for him to help protect the power roles.
True.
Well it looks like I am going to go down as the only person who thinks it makes less sense for Idle and Zuma to be scum.
So be it.
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
ultimately if they are Monks, they know Idle is not and need to vote for him to help protect the power roles.
[/QUOTE]
Pleonast, you are correct.
unvote NAF
vote Idle Thoughts
zuma will presumably vote for me which will make it
3 sachertorte
7 idle thoughts
Since the dunk the unknown 5 idea is fizzling out, cookies should probably join the Idle Thoughts vote to make it 8 to 3.
That leaves two not voting, and Queuing voting for Kyrie.
At least one of MHaye or CatinaSuit should unvote to be protected from an Avatar event, if someone else decides to vote Idle Thoughts, then both can unvote (I think).
I’ve thought it over, and I agree with Queuing and sachertorte. Here’s my thinking, neglecting the possibility of a lucky block.
7 scum:
game over already, not possible (7/14 now.)
6 scum, no recruitment:
lynch scum: scum recruit, 6/13 tomorrow, lynch or lose tomorrow
lynch town: scum kill, 6/12 tomorrow, scum win.
6 scum, recruitment used:
lynch scum: scum kill, 5/12 tomorrow, lynch or lose tomorrow
lynch town: scum kill, 6/12 tomorrow, scum win
5 scum, no recruitment:
lynch scum: scum recruit, 5/13 tomorrow.
lynch town: scum recruit, 6/13 tomorrow.
5 scum, recruitment used:
lynch scum: scum kill, 4/12 tomorrow
lynch town: scum kill, 5/12 tomorrow
There can’t be seven scum, and if there are fewer than 6, then it’s not lynch-or-lose today, and this monk gambit becomes foolish. It only makes sense to try this if there are six scum, and the consequences of it can be ignored since it’s an end-game move.
So among sachertorte/Idle/zuma/Cookies there are two scum. Choosing randomly from this group gives a 1/2 chance of picking scum.
FCoD was cleared by the Apprentice, but he might be the Prophet. And one of the scum might be a recruit. So among USCDiver/NAF/Kyrie/Pygmy/FCoD/Queuing, there are 3 or 4 scum, putting the odds of selecting scum out of this group somewhere between 1/2 and 2/3, depending on whether one of the six is a recruit of an uncontested claimed role. So it’s actually better to select someone not involved in this monk business.
And for me, personally, it’s somewhere between 3/5 and 4/5, because I can eliminate one of the possibilities. I’m not going to be joining Queuing and Cookies in voting for me, obviously, so I’ll pick the other person from this group that seems to have a real shot: Vote NAF1138.
Oh, if we can protect Hockey Monkey we probably should do that too since after the dunk Hockey Monkey will know for sure who to target each night.
Which brings me to my last point. Keep one confirmed scum alive until the endgame (zuma). That way Hockey Monkey can target zuma each night and hope to block the night kill. As we dunk more scum, the probability of a block will go up… it’s better than nothing, and once zuma is confirmed scum, we need to turn our attention to the unknowns.
[QUOTE=sachertorte]
Since the dunk the unknown 5 idea is fizzling out, cookies should probably join the Idle Thoughts vote to make it 8 to 3.
[/QUOTE]
Gah, my timing is execrable. I’ll be around before nightfall. If no one seems to be convinced by the logic of this, I’ll change my vote to provide cover from any avatar event. I’m also willing to pick just about anyone from that group other than FCoD and myself.
Oh Kyrie.
Like I said I’m fine with a NAF dunk, but if Idle Thoughts is getting dunked, I’ll support that too and give cover to the investigative and blocking power roles. If the town decides to shift tactics to address the unknown 5 today instead of tomorrow, I’m game for that.
Hmmm, Interesting Kyrie…I wondered which side you would fall toward. I was just writing out some thoughts involving the 3 who had not voted yet…you, zuma, and Pygmy.
Since you voted, I’ll do you first. Of course you aren’t going to vote for yourself. You can’t vote for **zuma ** or **cookies ** because that would look like an obvious cop out. Why vote for **Idle ** as it seems he’s going down anyway, and if he’s the Avatar, he might get you too. A vote for **Sach ** would put you in agreement and alignment with Idle…can’t do that either. **Queuing ** is making sense, so scratch him. Ah, **NAF ** looks like a good safe place to land your vote. He’s been voted for by Sach, so it will look good when **Idle ** comes up Cult. Kyrie, I think you are the Prophet. I don’t know if my magic potion worked on you or not, but I’m going to go back with my gut feeling from this morning. Even if no recruitment was attempted, I still could have blocked a cult action, albeit that would be very lucky. **Idle ** can wait I think one more day.
zuma, hasn’t voted yet because he has to wait to see which way the wind will blow. I would imagine he would vote for **Kyrie ** if it looks like **Idle ** is going to get dunked, so he can try to establish a Cultist vote for **Kyrie ** in hopes of dispelling suspicion that he’s the Prophet. If it looks like **Kyrie ** is going to go down, he’ll probably vote for Sach.
**Pygmy ** is a wild card in this race. Gut feeling right now is he is Cult and like **zuma ** biding his time to see where his vote should go.
So there you have it. If there are 4 scum left this is them. Kyrie, Idle, zuma, and pygmy. If there are 5 scum left, add **NAF ** to that, because **Kyrie’s ** vote for him kinda smells fishy.
**Queuing ** and USC Diver, I believe are town.
I don’t think the scum would have risked the Prophet on this ruse, because a recruitment probably has not happened. I know it looks like I am flip flopping worse than a politician today, but I’m responding to my thoughts and theories as they come to me. If we don’t dunk the Prophet today, they will attempt a recruitment tonight. This whole ruse was intended to be a flash bomb, diverting attention from the Prophet. That’s how I see it anyway.
unvote Idle Thoughts
Vote Kyrie Eleison
[QUOTE=sachertorte]
Oh Kyrie.
Like I said I’m fine with a NAF dunk, but if Idle Thoughts is getting dunked, I’ll support that too and give cover to the investigative and blocking power roles. If the town decides to shift tactics to address the unknown 5 today instead of tomorrow, I’m game for that.
[/QUOTE]
I’m game for this too, and fscked up as it might sound, I’d even be willing to unvote Kyrie and join him in voting for NAF. The “evidence” I have against Kyrie is purely circumstantial on the no-kill night. I’m willing to consider any degree of consensus of a dunk candidate among The Five. If we cannot find the Prophet in The Five toDay, our chance of a Town win hangs by the thought of the skin of our teeth.
What evidence is there to dunk NAF? While the evidence is very small to dunk Kyrie the information gained could be large. What the hell do we gain from dunking NAF?
We also gain a lot of information from dunking one of the monk claimers. However that move is a potential game ending move, and one I would prefer to make with as much information as possible, hence my desire to dunk Kyrie.
Beyond the idea that it is unlikely, and unlikely for the most part just because (with a sprinkling of math), I have not seen any good reason to not go forth with the dunking of Kyrie.
The next Day we will have more information, including whatever the heck mhaye says, to base our move on. I find it very odd Cookies that you are willing to consider a dunk candidate of the 5 with a degree of consensus yet unvoting the one who has the votes on her to do so.
Hockey, your theory of the remaining Cult sounds reasonable. Are you more confident in Idle being Cult or in Kyrie being the Prophet? I think voting the obvious Cultist is better than going with a hunch on the Prophet. Do you really think we should dunk Kyrie to Day, or is your vote just to show the strength of your hunch?
I could be convinced to vote for Kyrie, but at this point I’d rather go for the obvious, Idle.
When I posted, it was you and me with votes on Kyrie.
[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
When I posted, it was you and me with votes on Kyrie.
[/QUOTE]
you = Queuing
[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey]
Since you voted, I’ll do you first. Of course you aren’t going to vote for yourself. You can’t vote for **zuma ** or **cookies ** because that would look like an obvious cop out. Why vote for **Idle ** as it seems he’s going down anyway, and if he’s the Avatar, he might get you too. A vote for **Sach ** would put you in agreement and alignment with Idle…can’t do that either. **Queuing ** is making sense, so scratch him. Ah, **NAF ** looks like a good safe place to land your vote. He’s been voted for by Sach, so it will look good when **Idle ** comes up Cult. Kyrie, I think you are the Prophet. I don’t know if my magic potion worked on you or not, but I’m going to go back with my gut feeling from this morning. Even if no recruitment was attempted, I still could have blocked a cult action, albeit that would be very lucky. **Idle ** can wait I think one more day.
[/QUOTE]
It’s nice that you’re voting for one of the group of six I suggested. Thanks. It would be nicer still if you would point out the flaw in the logic led me to my vote, rather than ignoring it entirely. If you want to offer an alternative explanation for my vote, at least have the courtesy to address the one I offered.
Logically, it makes sense to dunk one of the group of six; I picked the only one that wasn’t me that had a vote at the time I composed that post, in the hope of seeing it happen. Yeah, sachertorte and I cross-posted, so the vote wasn’t there any more when my post went up, but that’s the long and the short of why I picked NAF. Like I said, I’m willing to change to anyone in the group who’s not me or FCoD, and I’ll change my vote to Idle if enough people aren’t convinced to elect a dunkee out of this group before nightfall draws near.