Ok so we kill Kyrie tonight and we find out 1 of two things:
Kyrie is a cultist: Hockey Monkey’s claim of blocking her that night gives us a reasonable explanation for the no kill night, the scum were blocked, no recruitment occured. This does a couple of things; it means Hockey Monkey is good, still a believer. It also says mhaye is the apprentice and his readings can be trusted. This in turn confirms cookies and sach as monks. The next 2 Days we dunk Idle and then we dunk Zuma, or whatever order we want.
Kyrie is a believer: This does nothing for Hockey Monkey, however it removes teh possibility of the miller block for the no-night kill. This lends some weight to the idea that a recruitment happened. This is what Idle and Zuma are saying happened. This doesn’t clear them the way it would clear the other monk group, but it does add a significant amount of likelihood to their theory. The next day we dunk Sach or Cookies and find out more.
Yes this not 100%. I am well aware of that. However right now we have 2 groups of people claiming the exact opposite. I think a number of us have no idea whom is telling the truth, and it would basically be a guess on who to go for. I think my plan of killing kyrie makes the guess more like 60-40.
I am also well aware that tomorrow I will be attacked by a lot of you for this plan if it is not followed through. I am willing to do that as I think it gives my side the best chance to win. I like to win.
ON preview: The avatar will get one of us at somepoint, I don’t see the point in worrying about it. It is a complete unknown to everyone but BM.
Okay, I get it now. I’m not thrilled with the odds, but I agree that one of the unknowns is best, and Kyrie makes as decent a candidate as any and the whole Hockey Monkey thing tips the scales. got it.
I’m onboard with the Kyrie dunk. But I don’t want to shift my vote until MHaye and CatinaSuit are safe. (If I switch now, IT is still in the lead, leaving CatinaSuit and MHaye less cover).
Vote count (I think)
Idle Thoughts (6): MHaye Pleonast(possibly can be convinced of unknown 5 plan) FCOD CatinaSuit USCDiver sachertorte(willing to switch to Kyrie Eleison)
Kyrie Eleison (3): Queuing Cookies Hockey Monkey
sachertorte (2): Idle Thoughts NAF (presumably zuma will join making the total 3)
NAF(1): Kyrie Eleison
Not voting: Pygmy Rugger
If at least 2 of FCOD, Pleonast and USCDiver assent to a Kyrie dunk then I will switch, and I encourage the unknown 5 to join the majority to give cover.
If they do not agree, then I would ask Cookies, Queuing, Kyrie, and Pygmy Rugger to join the Idle Thoughts vote to give better cover for powerroles and an Avatar hit on one of the unknown 5 is preferable for Town.
I would ask NAF to join as well but he seems to hate me.
Basically, the unknown 5 should all be voting for whoever ends up with the majority, so lets try and sort out the decision ASAP.
Totally not following this. Kyrie being scum doesn’t confirm that Hockey Monkey blocked her. There’s less than 20% chance that an Alchemist targeting scum causes a block. (nitpick: Hockey Monkey is a non-believer)
I’m not liking where this is going. While I say I’m on board with a Kyrie dunk, I’m not willing to stake my life on her being a cultist. My view on dunking one of the unknown 5 is to eliminate unknowns. I don’t like the idea of assuming a recruit happened simply because Kyrie turns out to be a believer or vice versa.
Another thought: Scum know the cult status of Kyrie.
If Queuing is scum then he is setting up a Kyrie (non-cultist) kill followed by me or Cookies; not good.
I think I’m going to have to withdraw my support for the Kyrie Dunk. I do think that dunking one of the unknown 5 is the optimal town move, but Queuing’s plan is starting to look scummy to me. Cookies, what do you say?
On top of that, I really do believe you are scum at this point sach. Your behavior today (note not toDay) doesn’t make sense unless you are scum. You have been all over the place.
I’m still not changing my vote at this point, but I think this is a best-case scenario. Working with my original assumptions, sach’s or my death would expose Idle and zuma as scum, and maybe there will still be an ice cube’s chance in hell that the town will survive the loss of at least two townies (Kyrie + sach or myself) possibly three (if the scum kill instead of convert)…and the ickiest end of the spectrum (recruitment) is the net loss of three townies with the cult increasing by 1.
But if we kill a believing Kyrie tonight, and the scum can somehow manipulate the votes away from sach and I, toward one of the unknown townies who voted for Kyrie, the next Day, I don’t think there will be any icecube’s chance in hell of town victory.
If Kyrie ends up being town, I think there will plenty of “WTF???” going on for the scum to somehow find a way to kill a townie who’s death won’t prove that Idle and zuma are scum.
Thanks for indulging me in my contemplation of the consequences.
I’m not comfortable switching my vote from Idle. I think it’s best we take the scum we’re certain of, rather than a risky dunk. If the power roles want to vote elsewhere to avoid the Avatar, I will understand, but I think dunking Idle is our best move. We need to beware of last minute vote changes by scum, since we only have a few more than them.
We will gain information on the unknown five, based on how they end up voting.
Sach, cookies, mhaye, idle and zuma are all in the same boat. Some percentage of these people are scum, some are believers. Only they know who is who. Look at it from a perspective not your own, ie one that doesn’t know the truth of these 5. Ask yourself, what is the best way to find out which of these 5 are lieing and which are telling the truth?
If you can come up with a way that any death other then Kyrie’s can do this, I am listening. I am not saying my idea is perfect. I am well aware of the holes in the plan, in that regardless of what way it comes out it could mean jackshit. I am willing to risk that it will mean something to avoid doing 1 thing and 1 thing only:
Choosing between the groups which is exactly what the scum want us to do. Basically fuck you all, I ain’t doing it sort of thing.
I love the way you always put in a thinly veiled threat. Why would I vote for Idle if I think he is telling the truth? As I have stated if I am forced to choose I am choosing for Idle and Zuma, and against sach/cookies/mhaye. In my mind I want all 3 of those to go for Idle (if Kyrie does not go instead) because IMO it improves the chance that we get a scum anyway.
In fact if we are all so damn worried about the avatar, and Idle is the one who is going down, why don’t the above 3 vote for him, zuma and Idle vote for sach (or whomever) and the rest of sit and watch. Or not. People just do what they want and vote for who they think helps win the game.
Of course you would rather threaten us while refusing to listen to anyones but your own counsel. So basically I don’t give a crap what you say O secret role.
ok, well I am off for the rest of the night. (Not that anyone seems to care what I think anymore.)
I will see you in the Morning, I hope the rest of the town makes a smart decision. So far it all sounds like you are being lead around by the nose, but hey, team game and all that.
**Queuing ** is right, the scum want us to choose between the two groups for a reason. Their claiming has effectively become the chaffe to divert the heat-seeking missle. If we are all looking at them, then noone is looking for the Prophet. There *has * to be a reason for this. If they have used their recuitment abilities, then the Prophet is no longer valuable for his power…only for his presence in the over all number of Cult, so this play would make no sense. Ergo, I don’t think they have used their recruit ability yet. If we kill Idle, zuma, Cookies, or sachertorte, they will recruit.
Am I right about it being Kyrie? I DON’T KNOW! The Prophet is among these people:
Kyrie - person I administered sleeping potion to Night 6
FCOD - possible but unlikely
USC Diver - smells clean to me
Pygmy - stinks to high heaven
Queuing - has been advocating this plan all day
NAF1138 - have no clear feel
If **Kyrie ** turns up scum, the conclusion can be drawn that I blocked a kill or a recruitment. There is still a possiblity that there was a protection that night that had nothing to do with me. I still advocate that the recruit ability has not been played yet, and that was the whole reason for the false claiming Monks to get involved. If we kill **Kyrie ** we will get info.
Wait a second. If you are so sure that Idle is a believer, then how would the three of us voting for Idle increase the odds of getting a scum anyway. The only thing that would get anything anyway would be if Idle is the Avatar and you might be able to get the Apprentice or a Monk anyway. Queuing is looking more and more scummy to me.
Also, pro-town players, especially those of the unknown 5, should vote for the vote leader, regardless of who it is, to protect power roles.
Nicely played, sach, I’ll give you that. As it appears that we’re going to lose this game tonight (I highly doubt we’ll be around tomorrow… as I said, this is obviously their endgame), I do hope we can take a few lessons from this disaster.
I’m probably not going to be around for the rest of the day, and I don’t have a lot of time right now, but if anyone is still in doubt, consider this:
If MHaye hasn’t been converted, explain:
His ONLY results ended up with a townie getting killed
The mafia suddenly reversing course after the non-kill night. What else explains that?
Cookies “forgetting” who MHaye investigated (come on… any real townies out there also actually forget that FCOD was cleared? That “investigation” was meaningless to Cookies as Cookies knew it was made up)
What about the fact that it was sach HIMSELF who probably led to the oracle and apprentice being outed on day one? Dividing people up by lists, continually hammering THAT discussion even when everyone told him to give it up? I guess we don’t care about that anymore…
Who of the potential prophet list was most in danger of getting dunked before any Monk roleclaims happened? Was it Kyrie? Should we be killing to get info or killing the best candidate for scum/prophet? While info is needed, we are past the point where we have the luxury of killing just for information. Plus I’m still worried that Queuing is scum and leading the town toward a townie kill.
Hockey Monkey, I’m also worried that if Kyrie turns up Believer, that you will block me tonight instead of Idle Thoughts. If this is the case, I’d rather dunk Idle so that you know for sure who to target this evening (that is useful information too). I’d even go so far as to say that if Hockey Monkey intends to block me or Cookies based on a dead believer Kyrie, that I should be dunked instead of Kyrie.
Sure? Sure?! Whatever buddy. Do you even reads things or do you just post?
I am not fucking sure of anything except for 2 things. I will repeat them because you seem to require that.
I am vanilla believer
Hockey Monkey tried to block Kyrie
2a) Hockey Monkey could be lieing, if so she is scum.
2b) Hockey Monkey is the miller.
2c) there is a chance of miller blockage.
2d) miller blockage could explain what happened the no-kill night.
All you do sachertorte is take small bits of peoples posts and try to turn them around. This would be useful if you didn’t try to say things that they themselves did not say.
Do I have to spell it out for you?
2 groups are claiming monk.
1 of these 2 groups is lieing
The only ones who know are the people in the 2 groups
The scum did this for a reason. The only reason I can think of is they want us to choose.
Believers should not do anything the scum want us to.
I am not doing something the scum want us to do
You sir are a complete jackass.
I am not sure of anything. The scum want us to choose. You want us to choose. Pleonast wants us to choose. All the people who want us to choose are hiding something, or ignoring requests (you know like the one where I asked you doing what you want us to do how it helps find out what happened that no-kill night. Really not very surprising that instead of doing that you accuse me of being scum. Why not offer another possibility? Could it be because people are actually beginning to consider my idea and voting for Kyrie which would maybe blow the scum plan out of the water?)
To take a page out of Idle;s books:
Why are we doing what the scum want us to do?
Sachertorte can’t give one good reason why I am scum. I can’t give one good reason why he is scum. Sach/cookie can’t give one good reason why Idle is scum. Idle can’t give one good reason why sach is scum. yet we continue to listen to these lieing jackasses?
Well Pleonast is out of the unknown 5 plan, which is just as well since I don’t trust Queuing anymore. I’ll stick with my vote for Idle Thoughts and encourage Cookies to join me.
The rest of you do whatever you like, but protecting CatinaSuit is clearly a good idea.
Forgot add- My vote stands, You don’t like it, lynch me tomorrow all you want. Just ask yourself why the hell you are falling for such an obvious scum plan.