Mafia V: The Cult of Sekham

[Blaster_Master]

Alive
2 USCDiver
5 Hockey Monkey
7 NAF1138
10 CatinaSuit
12 Kyrie Eleison
14 Pleonast
17 Pygmy Rugger
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
27 MHaye

Dead
11 Mtgman - Non-Believer - Day One
4 zuma [Ver. 1] - Citizen - Night One
1 Kat - Cultist - Day Two
6 storyteller0910 - Monk - Night Two
15 DiggitCamara [Ver. 1] - Crusader - Night Two
20 Scuba_Ben - Citizen - Day Three
13 Hal Briston - Oracle - Night Three
29 MadTheSwine - Citizen - Day Four
9 SnakesCatLady - Citizen - Night Four
30 Captain Klutz - Non-Believer - Day Five
26 HazelNutCoffee - Citizen - Night Five
28 fluiddruid - Citizen - Day Six
18 amrussell - Psychopath - Day Seven
16 Fretful Porpentine - Priest - Night Seven
25 DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] - Citizen - Day Eight
22 Zeriel - Monk - Night Eight
3 Idle Thoughts - Cultist - Day Nine
8 sachetorte - Monk - Day Nine

Substitutions
** Kyrie Eleison **(Repl. ** Clockwork Jackal **)
** Nava **(Repl. ** Captain Carrot **)
** Kat **(Repl. ** ArizonaTeach **)
** DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] **(Repl. ** Autolycus **)
** Zuma [Ver. 2] **(Repl. ** MonkeyMensch **)
** amrussell **(Repl. ** Pasta **)
** Pygmy Rugger **(Repl. ** Nava **)
** CatinaSuit **(Repl. ** Malacandra **)

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@Pleonast

My suspicions are now on primarily Pygmy for not voting and secondarily on NAF and Queuing for not voting for Idle.

Does your suspicion also extend to Hockey, who also didn’t vote for Idle?

[Santo_Rugger]

@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

I’ve skimmed the Roles and Rules posts from early in the game, but I’d still like some clarity from BM.

BM: At night, for kill attempts, is one of the Cultists randomly selected (by you) to be the one to carry out the attack on the target who received the majority of Cult votes?

It doesn’t matter if one Cultist is selected, or if the probability is multiplied by 1/C.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@Pygmy Rugger

That, and I play rugby… (how’s that for a sexist comment?)

I was gonna pipe up on that, if he’d cited rugby.

Blood makes the grass grow, and I still have my old bite guards.

[Santo_Rugger]

Concerning my no-vote yesterday, I believed the counter claim yesterDay, mostly because of the theory that the false Monks would come out in the beginning of the Day. After the votes piled on Idle, there was really no reason for me to vote for him, he already had plenty to take him out. In retrospect, I should have voted for him to give MHaye and the real Monks a better chance of living had Idle been the Avatar. However, I thought MHaye may have been converted, so didn’t think that was a possibility at the time.

[Blaster_Master]

@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

I’ve skimmed the Roles and Rules posts from early in the game, but I’d still like some clarity from BM.

BM: At night, for kill attempts, is one of the Cultists randomly selected (by you) to be the one to carry out the attack on the target who received the majority of Cult votes?

In a sense, yes. Each night, a cultist is selected at random and placed in my spreadsheet as the “actor” for that role. That selection is only used if the Alchemist selects that individual as his target.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@Pygmy Rugger

It doesn’t matter if one Cultist is selected, or if the probability is multiplied by 1/C.

It matters if

[list=a]
[li]a) a single cultist carries our the kill attempt.[/li][li]b) our Alchemist hasn’t been converted.[/li][/list]

By keeping zuma alive, we have a chance of the Alchemist blocking any kills that he would be selected to carry out.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Then I don’t think we should kill zuma, just ignore him and make sure he doesn’t meddle with any close votes.

[Pleonast]

@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

Does your suspicion also extend to Hockey, who also didn’t vote for Idle?

No, because I believe it is unlikely Hockey was recruited the first No Kill Night, and the possible recruitment of last Night wouldn’t have affected her vote. I think it unlikely she was recruited last Night as well.

I think the Cult is likely to have recruited one of FlyingCow, Queuing, Kyrie, NAF, USCDiver, and Pygmy (in no particular order). So I would guess about 4 of those players are now Cult-aligned.

I also think it’s unlikely Pleonast was recruited either. Too unknown, too risky, when the Cult knows who is definitely susceptible to recruitment.

[USCDiver]

@Pygmy Rugger

Concerning my no-vote yesterday, I believed the counter claim yesterDay, mostly because of the theory that the false Monks would come out in the beginning of the Day. After the votes piled on Idle, there was really no reason for me to vote for him, he already had plenty to take him out. In retrospect, I should have voted for him to give MHaye and the real Monks a better chance of living had Idle been the Avatar. However, I thought MHaye may have been converted, so didn’t think that was a possibility at the time.

None of that excuses the fact that you didn’t vote AT ALL. If you believed the counterclaim, then you should have placed your vote on sachertorte or Cookies. We’ve discussed this several times before; no-votes give the Town no information about you and is inherently Culty… particularly in the situation Yesterday

[NAF1138]

Well then. I have been thinking again. I have come to some new decisions, and become reconfirmed in some of my old beliefs.

I think we have to start with the very real possibility that there was a recruit last night.

To this end, I think we need to keep zuma alive until he no longer is useful. We know he is scum, and HM can block him. If he keeps talking, we can get more info out of him. If he clams up we dunk him.

I think that IF the cult recruited last night, 99% they went after MHaye. I don’t know how to have MHaye prove that he wasn’t recruited, but I do think that his no read last night is a bad sign. That being said, we should keep him around for a bit too, give him a chance to prove himself.

I also think that it is vitally important that the town start reaching some sort of concensus before a dunk from now on. It doesn’t need to be 100% but we need at least 50% of the town agreeing. The shortened time frame of these upcoming Days is going to hurt us in that respect, but we can make things work out.

Pleonast I trust, more or less because MHaye verified him as a believer. Although I supose part of his role could be to be an innocent child, I really do think that it would balance the game too far to the cult side if that were the case.

Right now I would say that the most likely candidates for Profit in my mind are FCoD and Kyrie. FCoD has been confirmed, but I felt his play yesterDay was…soft and self protecting at best. Kyrie hasn’t got a read from MHaye yet, but I generally agree with the case against him at the momenst. In particular the possibility that Hockey might have blocked him earlier. Who did you block last night Hockey, Kyrie or zuma?

Queuing I want to believe is town, because he plays a lot like I do in many respects. BUT…he is playing mostly like I did in the pirates game. As time is going by I am leaning further and furthur away from him being town.

USC has given us exactly nothing to go on. We are nine Days in and I still don’t feel like I have a read on him.

Pygmy, I don’t know. I kind of feel like Pygmy is town. Just a gut thing I guess. He just isn’t reading like scum to me, I know that this is an unpopular opinion, but there you have it.

Has anyone done an analysis on what zuma and Idle have said over the course of the game? Maybe we can get some firmer ideas in place.

[Queuing]

@Blaster Master

In a sense, yes. Each night, a cultist is selected at random and placed in my spreadsheet as the “actor” for that role. That selection is only used if the Alchemist selects that individual as his target.

Wait, so if the alchemist guesses right and selected a cultist to block her chances of blocking are 100% if that cult member was selected to do the killing and nil if not? Do the cult know who is chosen to kill each night after the fact?

[NAF1138]

@USCDiver

None of that excuses the fact that you didn’t vote AT ALL. If you believed the counterclaim, then you should have placed your vote on sachertorte or Cookies. We’ve discussed this several times before; no-votes give the Town no information about you and is inherently Culty… particularly in the situation Yesterday

This is actually part of what is making my thing Pygmy is town. He SHOULD have voted yesterDay, but I can’t believe that a cultist would draw that much attention to themselves when they know that two of their own are already on the line.

[NAF1138]

@NAF1138

This is actually part of what is making my thing Pygmy is town. He SHOULD have voted yesterDay, but I can’t believe that a cultist would draw that much attention to themselves when they know that two of their own are already on the line.

um…part of what is making me think :smack:

[Queuing]

@Queuing

Wait, so if the alchemist guesses right and selected a cultist to block her chances of blocking are 100% if that cult member was selected to do the killing and nil if not? Do the cult know who is chosen to kill each night after the fact?

Err never mind, this is the exact same as 1/n isn’t it? Just a slight variable on it.

[Blaster_Master]

@Queuing

Wait, so if the alchemist guesses right and selected a cultist to block her chances of blocking are 100% if that cult member was selected to do the killing and nil if not? Do the cult know who is chosen to kill each night after the fact?

No, no one will be aware of this information until after the game is over. It has the same affect as multiplying the Alchemist’s success by 1/C as mentioned by Pygmy Rugger (because a given cultist has a 1/C chance of being selected). This just allows me to avoid modifying success rates in my spreadsheet more than I have to, which I felt like would possibly lead to more errors.

Either way, it’s a function of implementation, and it should have no bearing on the statistical results.

ETA: I see I simul-posted with Queuing. I probably should have just left my method out of the discussion, because I do some things in weird ways.

[Santo_Rugger]

@USCDiver

None of that excuses the fact that you didn’t vote AT ALL. If you believed the counterclaim, then you should have placed your vote on sachertorte or Cookies. We’ve discussed this several times before; no-votes give the Town no information about you and is inherently Culty… particularly in the situation Yesterday

Musta missed the memo. For reference, treat my vote yesterday as having been placed on sach, if that helps?

[Queuing]

Day 1: Votes for Amrussell (pasta) at post 642. Only vote of the Day for Idle, is abut half way through the Day.

Day 2: Votes for catina (mal) at 1162, unvotes at 1281, votes for Kat at 1309. The first vote was about halfway through, the 2nd vote was very near the end of the Day as we know.

Day 3: voted for Pleonast at 1544. Along with FCOD and Hazel. Again approx. 1/2 way through the Day.

Day 4: votes for MTS at 1834, was the 9th person to do so. Later unvoted at 2025 and votes for Pleonast. MTS had 16 votes on him, only people not to vote for MTS were Hockey, Zeriel, Cookies, Idle and Mhaye. All confirmed people, sigh.

Day 5: votes for Pleonast at 2076, this an immediate vote. Unvotes at 2301 and in same post votes for Captain Klutz. Is one of 9 people to vote for Klutz, his vote was the 4th vote.

Day6: votes for diggit2 at 2526. Is the 2nd and last person to vote for diggit, Kyrie was the first. Again this vote falls about 1/2 through the day.

Day 7: a vote for diggit2 again, at 2667, was an early vote. Is one of 3 people to vote for diggit. Idle was the 1st, amrussell followed at 2668, Kyrie at 2686.

Day 8: 3rd day in the row for diggit2, this one was at 2867. He was the 1st person to vote for diggit2. Eventually everyone did except for diggit. By everyone I mean 12 people. These 12:

Idle Thoughts, Queuing, FlyingCowOfDoom, Pygmy Rugger, Zeriel, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, Hockey Monkey, USCDiver, CatinaSuit, Pleonast, NAF1138, MHaye.

No Kyrie.

Day 9: the fight day. Voted for cookies at 3148, unvoted at 3181 and voted for mhaye same post. Unvoted mhaye 3212 and voted for sach same post.

[Hockey_Monkey]

@CatinaSuit

I do hope that is a

“You got a fuzzy reading on Kyrie”

instead of a

“You fell asleep because the Alchemist was mixing your drinks again?”

Just checking.

I don’t think it needs to be any big secret that I put **zuma ** to sleep last night. What good it did, I don’t know.

[Queuing]

So that voting record, what does it mean to me?

Well not that much. The only slightly suspicious thing is that kyrie and Idle voted together one day and that Kyrie did not vote one day. Combining this with the early scummy play of clockwork jackal, which we must not forget (its just not possible to ignore any pre-sub play in the game, to many subs). IMO the play of clockwork was very similar to the play of Arizona. Clockwork was garnering a lot if suspicion and then Arizona went into meltdown mode taking all of the heat. Then Clockwork was subbed out, Kyrie was given sometime for us to get a read on her, she came in guns ablazing with many posting history posts. It is possible that Arizona melted down to draw attention away from Clockwork as maybe he was the prophet. Then Kyrie came in and tried to look townie as all hell. However we know 1 thing about Kyrie. She was the target of a block on a night that was a no-kill night. Combine this with the way clockwork acted, the voting with Idle, the non-vote at least once and I still think she is scum.