I see Hockey Monkey is arguing that we should go for Kyrie Eleison because she (HM, that is) might have managed to block the Cult action on Night 6, and that’s better than a random lynch.
The chance that HM did block the Cult is very slim. At best it would work out at 25%, and that assumes there were then three Cultists – far too few imo. If there were then five Cultists it would be more like 15%.
What odds do we get flying blind? That depends on how large the pool of potential cultists is and how many cultists there are right now. If we assume that we execute one of the unknowns – ie a player without a claim, investigation result or supporting testimony – we have a total of five players.
There are at least four surviving Cultists. (See my post above for why I believe this.)
If we assume for the purposes of this discussion that the Prophet is in fact FcoD, there are two players in that set of five who are Cultists, giving us a 40% chance of “firing blind” and hitting a Cultist. That’s a lot better than the 15-25% chance for the course HM would have us follow. The chance of firing blind could be as high as 80%, but we can’t assume that either.
We need to improve the odds as much as we can – 40% is too low, let alone the 20% or so that Hockey Monkey’s plan gives us. I will not be following HMs plan. If however, some supporting evidence can be adduced that shows Kyrie is a Cultist, or if it becomes necessary for Town unity (because it’s vital that the Town act as a unit now) I will change my mind.
So say you are right and its lynch or lose, won’t it just be lynch or lose tomorrow as well? So killing zuma now just basically puts off the inevitable.
If we allow zuma to live we have a chance to block the scum maybe assuming hockey monkey is still a believer which would then stop the lynch or lose scenario and at the sametime allow us to gather information by killing someone else.
The only reason I see for killing zuma is because his input might be a tad annoying.
I suppose we could rely on you gathering us more info, but again we don’t know if you have been recruited or not, or if your investigation will even work. I don’t think we can rely on you, we just have to go by what we individually think.
Kyrie, well you basically said that you were annoyed because we had already done this. Which implies to me that since I already said it once, in the middle of a big ol’ fight day, that maybe I shouldn’t say it again. YMMV.
Since I have a wedding today, and barring any great arguments for or against which doesn’t seem to be some of our focus toDay, I will
Well, duh. Most people feel that they ought to avoid making factually incorrect statements even once. Never have I seen anyone argue so strenuously that they ought to be permitted to be wrong in a matter of fact repeatedly and without challenge.
If we’re at lynch or lose, then it doesn’t matter which cultist we kill, we’re still at lynch or lose. Saying that by following HM’s plan we stand to get off LyLo is simply wrong. It’s also behaviour that aids the Cult since they would want us to believe this. That’s one black mark against you in my book.
You are actively supporting a plan that gives the Town four chances in five of losing the game. (Give or take a bit).
As things stand it actually adds to the sum of our current knowledge. We don’t know zuma[sub]2[/sub]'s role. It might be Avatar, Cultist or (very unlikely) Prophet. There were plenty of people who said “Surely if IT and zuma[sub]2[/sub] are Cult, neither would be the Prophet, it’s just too risky” (or words to that effect) Yesterday. But now look; we’re talking about leaving zuma[sub]2[/sub] alive. Too risky? Or did the Cult count on this reaction?
The chance that my investigation works on any given day is 70% (at least) unless the Alchemist involves herself and blocks me in which case it drops to just over 1 in 6 (17½% to be exact).
My information isn’t enough for a firm conviction, no. Something I’ve known since the start. It’s best use is to eliminate some possibilities.
As for conversion, if I was converted last night and the game is really in LyLo I’d have picked someone (probably Kyrie since there was a certain amount of momentum against him) and claimed he was a nonbeliever. By the time my lie was exposed the game would be over.
I actually agree that everyone should consider the evidence for themselves. That’s one of the central precepts of the game. But at this point, if the Town let the Cult split their vote, the game ends and the Cult win. The Town has to debate, come to a consensus, and act in unison.
The proposed plan has insufficient chance of winning for my liking. Executing zuma[sub]2[/sub] has the virtue of buying another day as well as revealing zuma[sub]2[/sub]'s exact role, thus giving the Cult another chance to slip up.
You want to put a black mark against me because I’m trying to find a Cultist? I’m starting to look askance at you Mhaye. Insinuating that I blocked you because you didn’t get a reading seems very Culty to me. What good does it do me to block you? None! I think you may well have been converted and decided to say you had no reading in order to throw suspicion at me. I sat on **zuma ** last night to make sure he didn’t do anything.
I will try not to split the town, but I really really need to hear some evidence against someone other than **Kyrie ** in order for me not to vote for him. So build a case and let me hear it. Why should we dunk Queuing, NAF, FCOD, USC, or **Pygmy ** over Kyrie? What evidence do we have that would support one of these people getting dunked?
I certainly don’t think you’ve been converted and are now blocking me to advance the cause of the Cult. If you’re converted you lose the roleblocking power, remember? Thus if you did block me it would be proof that you weren’t Cult.
Good question. I have a suspect I want to investigate, but haven’t managed to do any research this afternoon for one reason or another.
Let me ask you one. Are you going to look around for some yourself, or rely on others? Because right now I think you’re focussing on Kyrie for reasons that are simply inadequate. Why don’t you look for some better evidence against Kyrie, since you’re so sure he’s Cult? Persuade me you’re right.
Well, I would think that anyone who advocated the Monks claiming before **Zeriel ** died could potentially be taken off the list of candidates for dunking today. I remember **FCOD ** was one of those people. If the Monks had claimed prior, then Monkgate could have been avoided and screwed up the Cult plan. I’ll have to go do a re-read and see what the other folks wanted to do at that point. Be back in a bit.
I’m not trying to smudge you. I’m trying to make you realize that your case isn’t as strong as you think it is. Why’d I go along with it so easily last time? Because I was scum, and wanted the town to go along with what you said. Using MHaye’s numbers:
But those numbers assume that Kyrie is a Cultist. If he’s not, assuming four Cultists left, out of seven players who haven’t claimed, or rather, 3 out of six, when you exclude zuma, the percentages are cut in half. So basically, Hockey isn’t lying, there’s a 10% chance that Kyrie is a Cultist, based on the night in question not ending with a kill. Ten percent, based on Hockey’s claims. I’d say there’s a greater than 10% chance that Hockey was converted. YMMV. The only reason I bring up a past game is because I don’t want to see the town go down that path this time. The numbers are too small to justify a dunking based on that action alone.
I can’t tell if you’re trying to lead the town astray, have a completely different strategy than the one I’ve proposed and think is best, or just simply don’t understand the point of the game we’re at.
We’re taking* FCOD*** off the list for today because MHaye’s said he’s a believer.
What we need to do is take out people who have not been confirmed by MHaye. When they’re all gone, then we go after the believers that don’t have a claimable role. Hell, I’ll volunteer to go first, but I’ve been thinking about the zuma thing, weighing the options of keeping him alive until we find a scum power role or dunking him now to remove his influence in switching a vote at the end of the day. I don’t know if that’s worth the .75 * 1/C chance of getting a block.
Pygmy, I think we are trying to accomplish the same goal but going about it in different ways. **FCOD ** was “confirmed” as a believer by MHaye, but since the Prophet will appear as a believer, then it isn’t really a confirmation of his innocence. I do feel that he is a true believer because he wanted the Monks to come forward before **Zeriel’s ** death. As did you.
**USC Diver ** and Kyrie Eleison did not post views one way or another on the Monks claiming at that time.
**NAF ** and **Queuing ** were against it. **Queuing ** was vehemently against it. If we aren’t going to dunk Kyrie, then we should maybe look at **NAF ** or Queuing.
Each person we put up for dunk has a 50/50 chance of being a Cultist. Either they are or they aren’t. I did something on night 6 that may have altered the Cult’s plan. I think that gives a slight nudge in the odds in regard to one person. You don’t have to agree with my reasoning or methods for us to be on the same side. After my re-read, I’m putting **FCOD ** and **Pygmy ** in my probably town list, and won’t be voting for either of them.
Can **Hockey Monkey ** block a Cult night kill or can she only block a specific night power??
I have PM’d **Blaster Master ** for a clarification because reading the rules it leans towards the latter rather than both.
However, I really don’t think that the Cult would risk the Prophet on a Cultist Dunking.
As a result, I don’t think that **NAF1138 ** or **Kyrie ** would be the Prophet. It would also count out **Pleonast **, USCDiver and **FlyingCowofDoom ** from being the Prophet as well from Idle Thought’s dunking.
It would also indiciate that **FCoD ** is a townie pure and simple and who knows what **Pleonast ** is.
That would leave **Queuing ** and **Pygmy Rugger ** as candidates for Prophet status.
I think will be looking at these two in more detail shortly.
<Out of Game>
Monday is a UK Bank Holiday - so don’t expect too much from me.
Especially as it maight be sunny
</oog>
These people are relatively confirmed as pro-town power roles:
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - Monk
MHaye - Apprentice
Pleonast - Martyr
Hockey Monkey - Alchemist
CatinaSuit - Disciple
These people are not the Avatar, but could be the Prophet or regular Cultists:
Kyrie Eleison - Not Avatar
Queuing - Not Avatar
This person reads as a Believer, so is not the Avatar and not a Cultist, but could be the Prophet:
FlyingCowOfDoom - Believer/Prophet
This person is a Cultist, possibly the Avatar or the Prophet:
zuma [Ver. 2] - Avatar/Prophet/Cultist
These people are unknown:
USCDiver - Unknown
NAF1138 - Unknown
Pygmy Rugger - Unknown
We can reasonably assume that there are four cultists in this list. Since I know that I’m not one, from my perspective there’s at least one cultist in the list of USCDiver, NAF1138, and Pygmy Rugger. I think NAF’s behavior yesterday was scummy, but I don’t think a Cultist would want to be one of three voters for sachertorte when the other two were Idle Thoughts and zuma. I have absolutely no read on USCDiver. Pygmy Rugger did not vote yesterday, and I find that extremely scummy. He voted for Idle Thoughts and then unvoted him, and I wonder if that wasn’t because he was worried about getting bitten by the Avatar?
It plays around the scenario that the Cult enters a Night with two less members than townies with the recruitment still untaken. If that happens the Cult win.
To avoid that, the Avatar has to be the last Cultist standing.
So, in order to leave the Avatar as the last Cultist standing, we have to take out all confirmed believers (or all confirmed non-Avatars) looking for the Prophet? That’s just crazy talk.
I’d like to avoid blowing up any additional town members, especially power roles until later if we can manage that. Of course we need to get the Avatar. Zuma could be the Avatar, and that (I thought) was one of the reasons we were holding his lynch till later.
Queuing dunking scenarios:
Queuing is a Cultist and the Prophet
Queuing is a Cultist and not the Avatar
Queuing is a Cultist and the Avatar (Maybe we lose a townie, maybe they lose a Cultist in the aftermath)
I thought that was pretty obviously the reason we wouldn’t kill him. I simply can’t believe that you would have been recruited, and then not remember that you still have your blocking powers. You remembered yesterday:
I said “One of the reasons”. I thought it was obvious that I would block him as long as he’s alive. But you yourself keep pointing out how useless my powers are.
