NFL 2023: Week 17

Things we learned last weekend:

  • The Ravens are now clear Super Bowl favorites
  • The Niners are not
  • Lamar Jackson made a strong case for MVP
  • Brock Purdy did not
  • The Browns are officially a Good Team
  • The Chiefs are not
  • The Dolphins can win a Big Game
  • The Cowboys still can’t win on the road
  • Both SB teams from last season look extremely vulnerable
  • The Bills, Browns, Rams, & Seahawks may be dangerous wild-card teams
  • Nobody wants to win the AFC South
  • The Lions will host a playoff game for the first time this century

This week’s games, with all lines taken from DraftKings:

Thursday night:

Jets @ Browns (-7.5)

Saturday:

Lions @ Cowboys (-6)

Sunday early:

49ers @ Commanders (+13.5)
Cardinals @ Eagles (-11)
Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5)
Patriots @ Bills (-12)
Rams @ Giants (+6)
Raiders @ Colts (-3)
Falcons @ Bears (-3)
Panthers @ Jaguars (-7)
Titans @ Texans (-3.5)

Sunday late:

Steelers @ Seahawks (-3.5)
Bengals @ Chiefs (-7)
Chargers @ Broncos (-5)

Sunday night:

Packers @ Vikings (-1.5)

There is no Monday Night game next weekend.

6 teams have clinched playoff spots, and 8 teams have been eliminated, so there are a lot of games with playoff implications. For a more in-depth playoff discussion, visit the playoff thread.

The premier game is the Fins at Baltimore between the two best teams in the AFC. With a win, the Ravens will cement their status as the best team in the league. Another interesting game has Detroit visiting Dallas, where the Boys are undefeated. The Browns can clinch a playoff spot with a win on TNF, while the Chiefs will try once again to clinch the division at Arrowhead.

As a KC fan, I have zero confidence in this team, so betting on the Bengals +7 doesn’t look terrible. The Cowboys getting six points over the Lions seems like too many, but the game is in Texas. Seahawks by 3.5 over the Steelers in Seattle looks like a good bet as well.

Your thoughts?

The Ravens are letting me get my hopes up again.

I was a bit surprised by that, too. Could it be that since the Lions clinched their division, they’re seen as maybe having less to play for than the Cowboys, who clinched a playoff spot but are still one game behind the Eagles in the NFC East? Yet, the Lions still want to get the best playoff seed, so it’s not like they will out-and-out rest starters for the next couple games, right? Forgive my ignorance on the matter, but as a Lions fan I have very little experience with this sort of situation :blush:

Could be also that the Cowboys are 7-0 at home this season. But yes, I still think the line is a bit too generous to Dallas.

Absolutely correct. The Niners, Eagles, and Lions are all 11-4, with the Niners holding the tiebreakers over the Eagles and Lions, while the Eagles have the tiebreaker over the Lions.

But as long as there’s a chance to move up in the seeding, the Lions will be playing to win. The Niners have games against the Commanders and Rams; the Eagles play the Cardinals and Giants; the Lions play the Cowboys and Vikings.

It certainly would be a longshot for the Lions to overtake one or both of those teams, but it’s not impossible.

Commanders going with Jacoby Brissett this week.

Rivera is obviously gone on Black Monday, but I’d think the team would at least want to give Howell all the reps they can. They have a lot of holes to fill and if they can get by with Howell, they don’t have to revisit the RG III past and pull off a massive draft day deal for a QB.

That makes no sense to me. The Commanders are done for the year, An extra win or two wont effin matter except to worsen your draft position. So why the hell start a QB who has almost no chance of being an excellent, let alone elite, let alone your team’s franchise QB? We all know what kind of player Brissett is.

You have a very valuable thing for finding your franchise QB: game reps. Unless you are absolutely convinced Sam Howell has no chance to be your QB of the future, he should be getting those reps. And if you are convinced he’s not the guy, give them to your practice squad QB (Jake Fromm?) or fucking sign a young guy you liked off of someone else’s practice squad. Anything but wasting them on a 31 year old career backup.

The owner, coaches, players also are lacking experience. :slight_smile:

Flacco went out of his way to be nice to the Jets when asked about the upcoming game - no bulletin board material. Secretly, I believe he’d love to throw for 350 and 5 tds.

Looks like the Russell Wilson experiment in Denver is over. Did not work out well for the Broncos.

I know the odds aren’t great, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team so clearly give up late in the season when they still haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs.

Sean Payton has one over-riding concern: Sean Payton. Russell Wilson is not Sean Payton, so his performance, his contract, the dead money, and his talent are irrelevant. Whether Wilson fits the system Payton wants to run and whether Wilson can make Payton look like a genius is what really matters.

Nearly half (44%) of the league is either 8-7 or 7-8 right now. I wonder if that sets some sort of new NFL record for parity entering the last two weeks of a season?

You almost make that sound like a bad thing.

Enlightened self interest should drive coaches to make the best choices for their team. Granted, a lot of HCs aren’t always good enough to know what those choices are.

It was clear almost from the beginning of his contract that Russell Wilson was, at best, a 1-2 year QB while Denver waited a bit for his dead money hit to subside even a little. Ditching him after 2023 was the most realistic outcome 12 months ago and nothing short of a legitimate MVP-type season and Super Bowl run this year would have changed that.

ETA: I bet they hold on to him until after June 1. If they somehow find a trade partner after that but not before (who knows?), then they’re in good shape. If not, straight out releasing him costs them in real money but saves them against their 2024 cap. I’m sure he’d love to be traded before then, but that would also cost Denver millions to tens of millsions against their 2024 cap and is not likely.

If Russell Wilson gets seriously injured in either of the last two games of the year then his full salary ($37M) becomes guaranteed. The Broncos have a very slim chance to make the playoffs, but not no chance.

They also will have to pay his full salary if he’s still on the roster in March.

BUT, if they cut him, they’ll have about $50M in dead cap money next year and they’re already $18M over the cap. So they might be better off keeping him on the roster, eating the salary guarantee, then cutting him in June.

So then, if they’re probably going to be guaranteeing his money anyway, why bench him now? Why not try to get him to prove himself the next couple of games? It’s not like neither he nor the team have anything to play for.

I see no financial reason for benching him. Either they think they’ll do better with another QB or this is something personal, maybe between him and Payton, or someone else in the organization. I don’t think this is about money. That argument doesn’t add up.

If he’s released after June, he costs them $32-33M against the cap rather than the full $49-50M if he’s on the roster next season.

So, they save $17-$18M against the cap if he’s released after that. But only if he is not injured these next two games. If he does get injured, they’re on the hook for the full $50M next season.

Same thing happened to Derek Carr with the Raiders benching him against injury to avoid the potential cost.

They’re going to be paying for him either way but it’s the difference between $32M and $49M. And if they find a trade partner, maybe even less. It sucks however you cut it but they can start saving a not inconsiderable amount now if they are pretty sure they know he won’t be their QB 2 or 3 years from now.

To recap the Wilson trade:

The Seahawks traded Wilson and their 2022 4th-round pick, which was used to select Eyioma Uwazurike.

The Broncos traded quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, and defensive tackle Shelby Harris. They also traded their 2022 first-round pick (Charles Cross), their 2022 second-round pick (Boye Mafe), their 2022 fifth-round pick (Tyreke Smith), their 2023 first-round pick (Devon Witherspoon), and their 2023 second-round pick (Derick Hall).

Since the trade, the Seahawks are 17-15, made the playoffs last year, and are in position to earn another wild-card spot this season. The Broncos are 12-20 and likely will miss the playoffs this year, as they did last year.

The Jaire Alexander plot thickens:

At the start of last Sunday’s Packers-Panthers game, Alexander (a cornerback for the Packers) botched the call of the coin flip, only saved by the referee, who had previously discussed with Coach Matt LaFleur what the Pack planned to do with their coin flip instructions.

It turns out that Alexander not only was not among the three captains which the Packers had designated for the game, but it appears that he, himself, decided to go out onto the field for the flip, and make the call:

Today, the Packers announced that Alexander would be suspended for this week’s game against the Vikings, for “conduct detrimental to the team.” Alexander, who was a second-team All-Pro after the 2020 and 2022 seasons, is the highest-paid cornerback in the league, but had missed nine games this year with a shoulder injury.

I’m a bit tired of elite skilled players who think they’re more important than the team. Rodgers. Now Alexander. I have luttle patience for divas, even if they’re great players.

Should? Maybe. Much more of that falls on the GM than the HC. Dont discount the fact that Payton most likely gets another free 2 or 3 years of excuses if he gets a rookie QB in there. And, if that rookie doesnt totally suck, he looks like a genius. Which is what he needs.

I fully admit to not following the Wilson signing closely, but it seems catastrophically stupid to give up what they did, then sign Wilson to that contract, only to have him for one or two years. They gave him 125 million dollars fully guarateed, for pete’s sake. To do that for a fill in QB for a year would be so incredibly stupid.

Again, I’m having a really hard time believing this given what it cost the Broncos to get him. Do you have a cite, or some further insight, for saying this?

Seems much more likely to me that Payton needs a scapegoat for underperforming this year, because Lombardi knows nothing is Payton’s fault.

The Browns with serial masseuse enthusiast Watson have entered the chat. The idea that NFL owners (failsons), GMs (inertia neppo babies), and the carousel of talent evaluators/head coaches are genius level savants is pure fiction - put out by these same individuals and perpetrated on viewers by screaming sportscasters, bloggers, and scrapbookers :slight_smile:

Just lean back the recliner or better yet, take the dogs and kids out for the day. Trying to figure out these moves by galaxy-brained (narcissistic) buffoons is futile.