There’s only one NFC South score that matters today.
Not sure what you mean by this statement. At the moment, there are three teams that could win that division.
And the Eagles lost to a former 3 win team, the Cardinals, at home. Ugly.
As it turns out. That one didn’t matter either.
Four weeks ago, in the Week 13 thread, I opined that the Cowboys still had a chance to win the NFC East, even though they were 2 games and the tiebreaker behind the Eagles.
One poster said "they haven’t gotten any chance of overtaking the Eagles.”
Another poster stated "the math says it’s possible. But with those schedules…it’s not possible.”
Well, guess what? If the Cowboys win in Washington next Sunday, they win the East, no matter what the Eagles do against the Giants.
So if you had a situation where before you began, you were told that you needed to succeed on a 2 point conversion twice, then yes, your odds would be 25%. But the decision is being made after the first one is already done and over with and essentially irrelevant, so at that point, the only relevant odds are that the next one will be 50/50.
To give another somewhat similar NFL example, I’ve heard freezing the kicker (calling the time-out right before the play goes off and therefore making the kicker kick the ball on what will be an irrelevant play) is unfair because it makes the kicker “make the kick twice” - but that’s not true. Once the timeout is called, the result of that kick is irrelevant, and the kicker only has to make the second attempt. The kicker could very well miss the first attempt and make the second. Freezing the kicker doesn’t make you pass two trials, it just makes the first trial irrelevant.
Or to use a more generic classic example - if I asked you what are the odds you can flip a coin and get heads 10 time in a row, the answer is 1/1024. But if you’ve just flipped a coin 9 times and came up heads 9 times, and I asked you what are the odds you’ll get 10 in a row, then the answer is 50/50. The first 9 flips are already done with and decided, just like the first 2 point conversion is already done with and decided when you make the decision to go for the second one.
Now there can be other factors at work - like, maybe you’ve used up your most successful 2 point play and will have to call one that you don’t like as much, or maybe you think you’ve given the defense time to catch their breath and those things change the odds of the second attempt, but that’s not because you’re combining the probability of making both of those attempts and applying that only to the second independent attempt.
I think things are shaping up for a big showdown between the ratbirds and the Browns. I would be surprised if someone other than those teams won the AFC. Both are peaking at the right time, the Ravens just blew the doors off the #2 seed. They split this year with each other so far. The Joe Flacco storyline will be pretty dramatic.
That’s not my preferred matchup. I would prefer somehow someone else eliminates them from the playoffs because they scare me more than anyone, but it does seem like it’s probably shaping up to happen either in the second round or the AFC championship game, if the Browns continue on their hotstreak and win a couple of playoff games. But it certainly would be dramatic.
Yeah, once I thought it through a bit more I realized @Snarky_Kong was right. So I essentially fell victim to the Gamber’s Fallacy despite claiming that I understood it. I’m glad gambling is not one of my vices!
I still think Campbell should have gone with the PAT after the horrible ref call on the 2 point conversion.
I’m going by memory, but what I understood them to be saying was that if he hadn’t reported as eligible, then there were several penalties that could be called: illegal formation, ineligible man downfield, and illegal touching. Which is really just more evidence that he really was the one who reported - everything the offence did only makes sense that way.
Thanks. That sounds more reasonsble than the Lions making multiple fundamental errors on one play.
Well it’s not that.
The announcers then said that Decker wouldn’t have been an eligible receiver anyway because there was a receiver on the line of scrimmage outside of him, making him ineligible. But it’s very clear upon replay that Josh Reynolds is off the line of scrimmage, too. He even motions to the sideline that he’s off:
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Decker is 68, second to the last on the left side, but the receiver to his left is clearly behind. So he’s the last on the line of scrimmage.
Yup; that receiver to Decker’s left is set up off the line of scrimmage. I don’t see any formation-based reason why he’d be ineligible.
I thought the Eagles still owned the tiebreaker. Does this mean that if the Cowboys beat Washington next week, they will get the #2 seed?
The guy to Decker’s left is behind, but not a whole lot. His left foot is well back, but his front foot and his body are closer. How far back do you have to be to not be on the line?
Hypothetically, a yard, I believe. But, before each play, receivers typically check in with the officials on the sidelines to make sure that they are lined up on, or off, the line of scrimmage.
In that picture, it’s pretty clear to me that that receiver’s lead foot is a yard or so behind the line of scrimmage.
Cowboys win the tiebreaker based on a better record in common games, I believe. They also have a better conference record than the Eagles, should it come to that.
Yes.
This is probably not the way to enamor yourself to your fan base.
Chiefs win ugly…one touchdown and SIX field goals. KC is in the playoffs, winning the division for the 9th straight year.
With the Seahawks loss, Green Bay need only win their final two games to make the playoffs. I reckon it’s possible if Jordan Love leads the Packers offense to about a hundred points, given how abysmal the defense has been.
Slightly disconcerting is how “Fire Joe Barry” and “Fuck Joe Biden” have the same initials. Makes me confuse my football groups and political ones.
I suspected the Dolphins/Ravens score was a scorigami!