NFL Picks - Week 12

Well, I’ve gotten an email from parties to remain nameless pleading for the weekly football thread. I figure I owe it to everyone to at least get my primer in again.

I haven’t sat down and looked over things for this week yet, so I’m not sure of any witty reparte to drop on you all, therefore I’ll keep it basic.

Last week was more of the same in my Pick 5 pool, I wnet 2-3 and there was a winner. Looking like a bleak season on that front. I’m offically 2-3 for I believe 4 consecutive weeks.

Here we are…enjoy.

Sunday Games
Atlanta @ Carolina 12:00pm (Atlanta by 3½)

Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets 12:00pm (N.Y. Jets by 3)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 11)

Cleveland @ New Orleans 12:00pm (New Orleans by 6)

Detroit @ Chicago 12:00pm (Chicago by 5½)

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay 12:00pm (Tampa Bay by 3)

Jacksonville @ Dallas 12:00pm (Jacksonville by 2½)

Minnesota @ New England 12:00pm (New England by 7½)

San Diego @ Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 3)

Tennessee @ Baltimore 12:00pm (Tennessee by 1½)

Kansas City @ Seattle 3:05pm (Kansas City by 3)

Oakland @ Arizona 3:05pm (Oakland by 8)

N.Y. Giants @ Houston 3:15pm (N.Y. Giants by 5½)

St. Louis @ Washington 3:15pm (St. Louis by 4½)

Indianapolis @ Denver 7:30pm (Denver by 6½)

Monday Night Football
Philadelphia @ San Francisco 8:00pm (San Francisco by 7)

Drunk people should neither send e-mails, nor post picks.

I’ll post my picks when I sober up.

It’s going to be a busy weekend for me (I’m, uh, getting a badly-needed haircut…and…oh yeah, I’m SPENDING ALL DAY SUNDAY AT THE HUGE PRE-CHRISTMAS EXTRAVAGANZA AT ALA MOANA!!), so I figured I’d get this out of the way right now. Fortunately, recent events in the NFL have made my week 12 favorites verrrry easy.

Anyhoo, bandwagon picks (this week’s theme: Just Freaking Because, all right?) :

1-2. Packers/Buccaneers (tie)
“Wait a minute, Darrell…these teams are facing each other this Sunday. There must be some mistake here.”

No mistake. I like them both and can’t pick one over the other.

“But you HAVE TO pick one!”

Why? I can like two strong teams against each other equally. Heck, that’s probably the ultimate bandwagon pick.

“So you’re hoping for a TIE??”

Sure, why the heck not. Who says that there absolutely must be a winner. (Okay, in the playoffs, there absolutely must be a winner, but we¡¦re still a long ways from that.) Sometimes, two people are equally good and deserve equal props.

I mean, look at the double gold medal for pairs figure skating in the last Winter Olympics. Something completely unprecedented in the sport. And what caused it? A scandal involving a corrupt judge. Oh, come ON…the Olympics are to scandals and horribly unjust outcomes as the NFL is to delay of game penalties. I mean, it took these cretins nearly a decade to give a Canadian swimmer the gold medal that she was denied because a judge entered the wrong score! The Olympiads are a veritable cavalcade of bad calls, corrupt judging, incompetent judging, and robberies, and no one bats an eyelid. And this is figure skating, fer chrissake, a sport that was DESIGNED FROM THE GROUND UP to produce astonishingly unjust outcomes. So Sikharlude had a “step-out”…look, he’s a Russian, which means that he could’ve accidentally skated over his partner’s thighs and it wouldn’t make a difference. Let’s be serious, folks, Olympic brass reversing a decision due to a scandal is like the NFL cancelling a game because it looks like there might possibly be a little drizzle by about the 3rd quarter.

But this time…this time, it was different. In the end, the IOC decided that neither the Russians nor the Canadians had outperformed the other. Both sides were equally good.

You may agree or disagree with this. But the point is, the people in charge of Olympic figure skating, who usually haven’t the slightest qualms about picking a winner before the event even begins, couldn’t pick one after days of deliberation…because both sides were equally good.

Just this once, I’d like to have the privilege of doing the same.

(Oh yeah, since they share the #1 and #2 spots, both get 4.5 points. More on this below.)

3. Bills
Sticking by an embattled Drew Bledsoe to the very end. He deserves better than this. The whole damn city deserves better than this.

4. Rams
Just a reminder that not only did Kurt Warner take this team to the Super Bowl, but this team was an absolute laughingstock before he arrived. Yeah, I know, he was just the final piece of the puzzle, but so were most other Super Bowl QBs. Of course, I’m really pulling for a win here to forestall the endless gigatons of BS that will pour from St. Louis like water from a bombed dam if Rams go 0-6 under him, as if the QB were the only freaking factor in the success of a team in this goddam upside-down season.

5. Steelers
This is my “lock” pick. Or my “I don’t care how bad Kordell Stewart is, you HAVE TO win this one, for crying out loud” pick. Whatever floats your boat.

(Wow, three quarterbacks named. Must be channelling thoughts from Joe Theismann or something.)

Top 10 bandwagon rankings. (No, I haven’t forgotten about this…just took me a while to pull up the old threads so I could add 'em up again.)

  1. 17 - Bills
  2. 12 - Eagles
  3. 11 - Panthers
  4. 10.5 - Packers
  5. 10 - Cardinals
  6. 9.5 - Buccaneers
  7. 9 - Steelers
  8. 8 - Dolphins
  9. 7 - 49ers
  10. 6 - Cowboys, Rams

Wow, I never realized how much I rooted for the Bills. Of course, if you want a lovable underdog, you could hardly do better than them.

(Anyone who wishes to debate my position on the figure skating double gold medal may do so now. Don’t everyone get up at once. :slight_smile: )

My head is pounding. Stupid Bailey’s. It’s too sweet and creamy-- no way can you get drunk on it. Sheay, right.

Giants @ Houston
Buffalo @ Jets
Go New York, Go New York GO! In case anyone is confused-- Buffalo is Canadian.

Minnesota @ New England
My confidence in the Pats has shriveled up and died like Brady’s QB rating. I’m still picking them over the Vikes which means that the Pats will fall below 500 after Sunday’s game.
Tennessee @ Baltimore
Did I even spell Tennessee right? Their first place spot is a mirage. Ravens.
Atlanta @ Carolina
Picked the Panthers because if they win, I’ve got a big boost in my pool since nobody at work thinks they’ll show up against the Falcons. Nobody but me, that is.
Detriot @ Chicago
Hmmm. Which team is worse? I’ll take the 5 and a half points and go with the Lions.
Jacksonville @ Dallas
I’m sure I’ve mentioned this a time or ten, but I can’t stand the Cowboys. My dislike for them intesifies my irrationalism. I’ll go with the Jags.

San Diego @ Miami
It’s a toss-up. I’ll take the points and go with the Chargers.
Cleveland @ New Orleans
This is going to be the Holy Shit game. I still picked the Saints as they should clobber the Browns by more than a touchdown.

Cinncinatti @ Pittsburg
I sooooo hope the Bengals actually beat the Steelers cuz I just do not like Cowher. Really, I hate the spitty guy. I’m betting the Pittsburg won’t cover the spread.

The Bay @ The other Bay
I’ve got this game all sown up. The team by the bay will win.
Kansas City @ Seattle
Another game where I go against the office pool flow. If I’m right, I’m golden. Seahawks.
Oakland @ Arizona
St. Louis @ Washinton
Indiana @ Denver
Jesus is my head pounding. I need a long tall glass of icy ginger ale. Oakland, Washington and Indy.

Philly @ San Fran
Monday Night Football cannot catch a break. Philly without McNabb will be just as good as the Lakers without Shaq. San Fran.

Ok, first, Biggril, yes, I just intentionally misspelled your name. And I will now intentionally misspell New Yorrk. Until you learn to correctly spell C-i-n-c-i-n-n-a-t-i. I know you’re hungover, so I’ll just leave it at that. BTW, a couple of weeks ago I sampled a new liquer, came in Creme Brulee and Chocolate Chip Cookie flavors. Tasty, just right for the holidays, but woe be to ye who get a buzz on the stuff. Instant hangover, I’m certain.

DKW, I forget where you were going when you wandered into your Olympic Figure Skating aside, but you never truly escaped to explain any football points. Which I kind of enjoyed. And you should see how the Koreans were still making a fuss about that short track speeding skating call during the following summer’s World Cup. Like anybody actually cares about short track speed skating. It’s like the Kart racing of ice.

You know Shib, I really do have a big grill. So Cinncinati it is.

And there I was worried about how I spelled “Tennessee”.

It’s Cincinnati!

Thank goodness there is no NFL franchise in Ouagadougou.

That’s what I said. Cinncinati.

GO BUCS!!! I hate Bret Favre (only because he’s not on my team!)

Well, it’s alomost kickoff, so no time for the whole sha-bang.

My bets this week:

DET +5 1/2
DET/CHI under 38
KC - 3
KC/SEA over 43 1/2
OAK -8
OAK/AZ under 44
PIT/CIN under 43 1/2 (Ketchup field is ripped to shreds after they played 4 highschool championship games in th rain/snow on Friday)

Fantasy News - Thomas Jones is done for the year. Keep an eye on Marcel Shipp.

Faulk will sit today.

Sunday Games
Atlanta @ Carolina 12:00pm (Atlanta by 3½)
This is going to be a tougher game than many expect. If the Panthers D can get to Vick they could pull the big upset here. On the other hand, the Falcons have been one of the hottest teams in the league since they lost to Tampa early.
Atlanta 21-17

Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets 12:00pm (N.Y. Jets by 3)
In this game we get to see if Chad Pennington and Biggirl are the real deal. Oh, wait, it’s not December yet. Let’s put that on hold until next week.
Jets 30-23

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 11)
This could be the big upset that Cincinnati fans are waiting for. Actually, most Cincinnati fans want the Bengals to lose out to force Mike Brown to make some much needed changes (like hiring a real GM). Kordell Stewart is the big story on the field. Which Kordell will show up this time. If the weak-sister Kordell shows up then the Bengals will steal this one. Either way the Steelers shouldn’t cover.
Pittsburgh 28-24

Cleveland @ New Orleans 12:00pm (New Orleans by 6)
Tim Couch will struggle against a real defense. Whatever became of Kelly Holcomb? Maybe he leads a late Browns rally that falls just short.
New Orleans 29-27

Detroit @ Chicago 12:00pm (Chicago by 5½)
I just don’t like Chicago this year. They seem to find ways to lose. Detroit upsets them in Champaign to keep the Bears in misery.
Lions 20-14

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay 12:00pm (Tampa Bay by 3)
Green Bay is 0-4 at Raymond James. They’ve played a schedule where their opposition has averaged .400 in the win column. Brett Favre is hobbled and the Bucs defense is ferocious. So why am I picking the Packers? Call me superstitious.
Packers 21-17

Jacksonville @ Dallas 12:00pm (Jacksonville by 2½)
Dallas sucks and they have a running back controversy. They also have mediocre quarterbacking. But Jacksonville has looked slack lately, so I’ll take the Boys at home in a mild upset.
Cowboys 14-10

Minnesota @ New England 12:00pm (New England by 7½)
New England should win this going away. Minnesota hasn’t won a road game since last year. They are horrible in the Northeast after October. And if Belichek can’t devise a defense to mess with Randy Moss no one can. The X factor here is Michael Bennett. Ever since I declined a trade for him in one of my Fantasy league’s he’s gone for a 60+ yard run in every game. Three in a row now. I’m betting he’ll make it four.
Patriots 38-27

San Diego @ Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 3)
San Diego is playing very good football. Miami has one once since Jay Fiedler went down. Fiedler is better and may start this week, but it’s on Lucas to beat the Chargers this week. With Rodney Harrison around I don’t think it happens.
Chargers 24-20

Tennessee @ Baltimore 12:00pm (Tennessee by 1½)
Tennessee is one of the hottesst teams in the league. They haven’t lost a game since September. Late news is that Ray Lewis will not play. Too bad for Baltimore.
Titans 27-14

Kansas City @ Seattle 3:05pm (Kansas City by 3)
I have to admit, I’m a hunch player. There is no other good reason for this pick.
Seahawks 28-21

Oakland @ Arizona 3:05pm (Oakland by 8)
This game makes me nervous. I didn’t double check, but I’m pretty sure that Oakland got slammed by the Cardinals in Phoenix last year. I’m still picking the Raiders, who have done quite well lately. But not with a lot of confidence.
Raiders 24-17

N.Y. Giants @ Houston 3:15pm (N.Y. Giants by 5½)
The Giants are another mediocre team that I just can’t love. Maybe it’s Kerry Collins uninspired QBing (lots of yards, few touchdowns). And I don’t know that he has a decent receiving corps to go to. So I’ll take the Giants (can’t go with too many upsets), but again I’m uninspired and wouldn’t be surprised to see this go the other way.
Giants 27-24

St. Louis @ Washington 3:15pm (St. Louis by 4½)
Marshall Faulk is not playing againg. Lamar Gordon is a good two notches of drop off from there. Kurt Warner is starting, but he’s just not playing as well as Marc Bulger was. Give the Rams the win, but it could be quite ugly.
Rams 20-14

Indianapolis @ Denver 7:30pm (Denver by 6½)
Indianapolis is playing sharp, attacking on defense, and the offense is clicking again. The Edge played well last week. The Broncos are going to see how much Steve Beurelein, the QB whose last name I can’t spell, has got left in his tank. I think the Colts are going to steal one here.
Colts 27-20

Monday Night Football
Philadelphia @ San Francisco 8:00pm (San Francisco by 7)
I came close to taking Philly to the Super Bowl in my preseason picks. But without McNabb they are just another team with a good defense. I think that their running game will suffer without McNabb to keep the defenses honest. It could turn out that a 500 team will win the NFC East now. And it could be the NY Giants.
49ers 21-13

Now you’re just messing with me. You Nieuw Yawker!
Omni Picks:

Bengals, Lions, Patriots, Chargers, Titans

Ahahaha.

Go Skins! Let the Warner-doubting begin! :smiley:

Shibboleth -
Football points:

Green Bay has a number of gamebreakers (including, of course, Brett Favre, who’s a monster when he’s healthy) and usually steps up in big games.

However, Tampa Bay is steamrolling toward their best season in franchise history, so momentum is definitely on their side.

So it’s a toss up.

You want exhaustive, comprehensive previews, ask Gazoo. :smiley:

(P.S.: “Cincinnati”.)

This week, I have no volleyball on Thursday, a day off, and some time to do a complete write up on the week’s games. Hopefully I’ll be able to do a more complete write-up.

What a beautiful phrase!

Why do I keep coming back, week after week, and allow them to do this to me? Am I that much of a masochist? Why do I get so involved? Why?

I want to be a Bengals fan. It would be so easy to be a Bengals fan. You wouldn’t be upset when they lose, because it’s all they ever do. If they win, you have a real reason to celebrate, but otherwise, you can just be cool, content in the knowledge that your team will never let you down because you expect veyr little from them.

Fuckin’ AFC West.

It is really beginning to upset me that I can’t find the time to get in a good analysis week after week. I feel so disappointed in myself. For kicks here’s who I picked for my OMNI- picks.

St. Louis, Buffalo, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Tennessee.

I went 1-4 this week…not the change I wanted form my usual 2-3.

Yeah, Omni, but somehow you dragged me down to 2-3( ;)), where I’d been more normally hitting 4-1 or 5-0. Maybe next week I’ll go 0-5 so you can go 5-0.

And yes, I’m still smiling this morning after yesterday’s game! Yeehaw!

Wow, lotsa stuff happening this weekend. I’ll take the liberty of dipping my own ladle into the pot:

Re. Warren Sapp’s hit on Chad Clifton
Oh, for crying out loud, hasn’t the game been sissified enough already? The last time I checked, there’s no such thing as “roughing the tackler”. And it was a completely clean block; no head-to-head, no chop, nothing even remotely dirty. So what if he was a long way from the ball carrier at the time…you’d be amazed as to how fast 15 or 20 yards can close up.

Fuggedaboudit. Totaly non-issue, and the league is correct to take no action whatsoever. This is football, folks, not basketball.

(And might I add, if you’re going to challenge Warren Sapp, you’d damn well better be right.)

Re. Warner’s 0-5! Warner’s 0-5!
I saw most of this game, and I actually thought Kurt Warner did fine. The Redskins did a great job of mixing up the plays, not overrelying on the pass, controlling the clock, and making the stops when they had to…good fundamental football. Also, as Tom Jackson reminded us, not having Marshall Faulk really limited the Rams’ options on offense. The final blow was just a fantastic defensive play by Lavar Arrington…if anyone’s at “fault”, it’s him. (Note, too, that if not for that horrible down-by-contact call that prevented a Rams’ fumble, it wouldn’t have even come down to that.)

Re. Mornhinweg’s brain-dead decision making in OT
Okay, maybe he wouldn’t do it again, and maybe the wind advantage wasn’t worth giving up possession, but let’s give the poor guy a fair shake here.

The Lions gave up a 15-yard pass with the Bears still on their own 35. Then, after a sack put them at 3rd and 11, they coughed up a 14-yarder for a first down. Then they had them at 3rd and 18 at the 45, meaning that if they give up less then 18 yards on two plays, it’s a stop, and they have the ball and the wind. Another 15-yarder on 3rd down. Now Chicago’s passing on 4th and 3, meaning that if they can cause in incompletion…ah, forget it.

If this were the Packers, Raiders, Falcons, Eagles, or Dolphins, yes, taking the wind would be utterly moronic. In the case of the Lions, I really don’t think it made any difference, because they always seem to find a way to lose. If they took first possession, my guess is that they promptly go 3-and-out (including a fumbled snap), then punt and have the punt returned for a touchdown. And then everyone will second-guess about why they didn’t go for it on 4th and 15 from their own 20.

Heads I win, tails you lose. That’s what it’s called. And the hapless Lions have been in that situation many, many times.

Re. Emmit Smith padding that record just a tad more
This reminds me more than anything else about the Cal Ripken situation, with assorted nimrods yammering about how he should take a seat and he’s just trying to extend the record and blah blah blah blah. Lost in all this tripe was the little issue of who exactly the Orioles had at the time who was better. To this day, I have yet to hear ONE sound argument for ending The Streak. The pseudo-controversy about how Smith is just holding back some mythical superior running back is just more think-with-your-mouth BS. Smith is out there because he deserves to be out there, and until the Cowboys get a running back who’s BETTER…not younger, not prettier, not cooler, better…Smith is the man. As it should be.

Shibboleth - Just calling 'em as I see ‘em. Seriously, this is probably the Buccaneers’ best chance ever to actually make it to the Super Bowl. Their biggest challengers in the NFC at this point are the Eagles and 49ers, and both are definitely beatable. If they get a bye and home field, look out.

pepperlandgirl - You’re the Chiefs fan, right?

I wouldn’t worry too much about the “monster” AFC West…mainly because the hard part will be getting into the playoffs at all. At present, 10 teams are ahead of the Chiefs, so they’re definitely out no matter what if current trends continue.

The last five games are against Arizona, St. Louis, and the divison teams. Arizona is practically a freebie win, but St. Louis is still dangerous and will probably still be in the playoff hunt by Week 14. After that, it’s all in their own hands. Having already dropped two of three divison games, however, I don’t see them suddenly catching fire and storming to the top.

You gotta have the wins. Everything else…divison strength, schedule strength, home vs. road, everything…is irrelevant until then.