Who would they play if: OU loses to OSU AND the Big XII title game, Georgia loses the SEC title game, AND Miami loses out. My guess is Iowa or the ND/USC winner.
Iowa is currently ranked #3 in both the AP and Coaches’ Poll. Neither ND or USC could possibly jump Iowa in the above circumstance.
Would be very interesting to have 2 teams from the same conference in the title match. Just another reason the Big 10 needs to add another school and institute a championship game (not to mention the need for a Div. I playoff system).
The planning and prognosticating is all well and good, but unless Miami loses twice, essentially only 4 teams (OSU already in, Miami, Oklahoma, Georgia) have a shot of making it.
Why do I say that?
Miami currently has a 6.2 point lead on OU and 7.18 lead on UGA. For comparisons (although I know that none are perfect) look at what happened to other teams post-loss.
Washington State recently lost their 2nd game. They went from a BCS standing/score of 3rd/9.41 to 8th/20.75, a net loss of 11.34. But, being there 2nd loss to an opponent with a poor record it can be said that there decline in points was greater than what Miami would face.
When NC State lost their first game, they went from 9th/20.73 to 12th/32.4, a net loss of 11.67. Again, I believe that represents a much greater loss than a team that has been at the top of the charts all season long will endure.
It gets tougher to compare some of the drops after losses by true contenders late in the season, because so many happened in the same week, but I can try.
In the week of Oklahoma’s loss, they went from 1st/2.74 to 4th/10.65, a drop of 7.91. Even with the change in rankings, that would probably still leave Iowa on the outside looking in, if only by a little bit. Georgia would be close and could overtake Miami, but it would still be close.
Miami has consistently been a top 2 team (with one minor BCS blip to 3rd over the course of the season). Even with one loss occuring, it seems unlikely that the 2 major polls would drop Miami below 5th place. Adding 5 points (4 for change in rank, 1 for a loss) to their BCS number gives them 7.89. I would surmise that Miami’s season long strength will help them in voters eyes and lead to them not being punished in ranking as much as other teams have, meaning Miami won’t fall quite as far and other teams won’t rise as much.
Of course, this is all hooey anyway since UGA and Oklahoma are both going to lose 1 more game and Iowa is just too far back to make up the necessary ground.