Is there any chance of Trump being disqualified affecting his nomination?
Based on the 14th amendment, and as a someone who voted Trump as the most likely nominee, I don’t see it. I think he could run, but just couldn’t take the office immediately. Unless I’m missing something, the toady who won the vice-presidency would take office, pardon Trump, and then insist the disqualification was vacated.
As for the possibility that Trump was convicted by a state judge of insurrection, I think the toady would still vacate the White House in favor of Trump.
It’s not just the 14th Amendment. The 22nd Amendment is also a obstacle for Trump.
Trump had adamantly maintained that he won the 2020 election. Other Republicans have said this as well. If you accept this, that means Trump has been elected President twice. And the 22nd Amendment says “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”.
Now those of us living in the real world know that Trump wasn’t elected in 2020. But this still means that if he plans on running in 2024, Trump has to at some point publicly state he lost the 2020 election.
No he doesn’t. To be ineligible under the 22nd, someone would have to establish was elected twice before . He has no obligation to state anything. No legal obligation.
Election of the President is by the Electoral College so even if everything Trump claims is true, he still lost the true election. Thus the 22nd Amendment is out of play no matter what.
As others have said, Trump could avoid this issue by just dropping it. He didn’t win the 2020 election so there’s no actual legal barrier.
But Trump is not a strong thinker. All the Democrats have to do is needle him on this point and he will jump in. He will loudly yell about how he was elected in 2020. Then the Democrats can point out that makes him ineligible to run in 2024. And then they can sit back and watch Trump try to argue it both ways.
The surface issue will be Trump’s ineligibility. But the real issue will be how Trump can’t face reality, goes off half-cocked, and doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing. This is about reminding everyone why Trump lacks what it takes to be president.
I disagree. There are certainly automatic voters. I’m one; I will vote in the 2024 election and I’ll be voting for the Democratic Presidential nominee (I can’t see any potential Republican nominee on the horizon who would persuade me to do otherwise).
But automatic voters don’t decide elections. If we did, the same party would win every time. There’s a large group of voters who will decide between now and the 2024 election if they will vote or not and whether they will for the Democrat or the Republican. These people will decide the outcome and these are the people who need to be reached with anti-Trump and anti-Republican messages. (Or anti-Biden and anti-Democratic messages if you’re on the other side.)
I agree with this. I understand that American voters are generally split: 40% each will automatically vote D or R down the whole ballot, without really giving much thought to it. But, that the 20% left is considered the “Undecideds”, that will, presumably, need to be persuaded to vote for or against, a candidate. It’s not exactly clear what will motivate them to vote one way or the other - will they respond to negative/smear campaign advertising? Negative news? Positive news? What’s happening in their house, or their wallet, or at work? If their team wins the game on the weekend before Election Day? It’s not likely these people in the middle are closely observing the national political dialogue, or else they would have already chosen.
IMHO it’s the stuff happening close to home that will generally persuade these voters. Democrats have to be clear with their messaging that they are on these peoples’ side and their policies are better for them, and the nation, than what the Republicans are offering with their hate-filled, fear-based, and misguided agenda of “no” to everything except tax cuts. But since the Democrats are in power for now, it will be much easier for the GOP to criticize the current situation than to offer their own vision and solution for problems being felt by these Undecideds.
The other thing to keep in mind is not all states, and electors, are really in play. Democrats need to focus on messaging specific to the states where there is a chance to take the electors - get down in the weeds there, and show that their plans will help people in those specific areas. Convincing people in deep red states will be a longer-term project.
At least around here (Texas), I feel like the Democrats are missing a golden opportunity to point out that the Republican candidates have NOTHING in the way of new ideas, at least as advertised. All the ads are all about how the Democratic candidates are going to ruin the state, make it more unsafe, etc… or have already done so (with skewed/absurd statistics/facts).
There’s absolutely no mention of what they plan to do in order to make things better, and the Democrats seem resolute in their unwillingness to point that out. I’d love to see a Beto commercial where he says something like “My mom always said that if you’re going to criticize, you should have a plan to fix it. Well Greg, what’s YOUR plan then?”
I have a feeling that the 20% undecideds are people who are pulled in two directions by competing priorities. Like devout Catholics who are also highly anti-racist. On one hand, they want to vote for the anti-abortion candidate, but they also don’t want to vote for the virtual white supremacism of the Republicans either. Or (my personal bet) people who are offended and repulsed about equally by both parties for whatever reason. I can’t believe there are that many people who merely can’t make up their mind.
As far as who the 2024 nominee will be, I have a feeling that it’ll be someone other than Trump. And I feel like DeSantis is kind of charisma-less; he just mostly seems grumpy when I’ve seen him on TV, without Trump’s weird brand of flamboyance. So I’m guessing someone else will get the nomination.
Same as every other Republican: ban brown people and f*gs, cut taxes, make more private prisons. It’s a very popular platform, unfortunately, which may be why the Dems aren’t asking directly.
That is the case in Washington State too. There are tons of Republican ads, but none of them say anything about what good the Republican candidates will do. Every single one, without exception, is slamming the Democrat opponent. And each one is the same, “So-and-so votes with Biden 100% of the time, and now we have inflation and crime.” That’s it. It’s like they have a Mad Libs and you just replace the name of the person you are slamming.
The Rs in this area are banking solely on people not liking Joe Biden. That is their entire strategy.
While that’s reprehensible, it’s also understandable. This is a midterm election, and those are almost always seen as a referendum against whoever the POTUS is. (Which is why you usually see losses for whatever party the POTUS belongs to, no matter who they are.) It clearly works.
Around here, it’s doubly infuriating because the incumbent governor has failed to do multiple high profile things- he literally said “It could have been worse” when asked about the school shooting in Uvalde, he fucked up on the power grid handling before AND after the winter storm in 2021, he botched the pandemic response, and several other things. Meanwhile he’s been diligently manufacturing a “crisis” at the Mexican border and harping on it and Democrat immigration views/policies, and trying to smear local candidates with a broad brushed in Biden tar.
All Trump has to do. is Dominate the news cycle and wait for the election. The overindulged voting public is bored. Biden is boring. Harris is really boring. The clowns are not. We need a Huey Long or perhaps a Howard Hill to get their attention.
Mencken was right: ‘nobody ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the human race…’
I am getting a slew of political mailers- so far, every GOP mailer has been an attack ad, and full of lies. The Dem mailers are about half attack and half glorifying the candidate, and with more than a little stretching of the facts, but with no out and out totally bogus “pants on fire” statements.
Since we’re talking about awful political ads, here is yesterday’s Daily Show reviewing the craziest ones. (It is timestamped to start at the ad reviews.)
