I suspect President Trump will not live long enough to be nominated.
(If he were to die after he is nominated it would set off a flurry of rumor. Just about the ideal situation from his point of view.)
Any schism in the MAGA voting block, or the Republican voting block, is good news! If one or the other is nominated, supporters of the one that was not nominated will just sit home on election day, in a huff. That may be all that’s needed to turn a couple battleground states blue.
Neither of those two nincompoops are going to get a lot of votes from people on this board, and it’s not likely the GOP is going to nominate someone remotely palatable to most Democratic voters.
I gathered from your earlier post (“We have our candidate”) that you think Biden is a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination in '24.
Here’s a sign that has me worried about the upcoming election; my brother has decided to vote. I don’t remember the last time he voted and I’m not sure he has ever voted. He hates and distrusts all politicians. But for some reason, he has decided to register and plans on voting this time. And he’s voting for Republicans (while still complaining that they’re all crooked).
I’m hoping this is just some individual act of his and not a sign of some larger trend.
Not guaranteed but an eligible incumbent is the default nominee of their party. And any party that doesn’t re-nominate an incumbent president is essentially conceding the election.
I think the biggest hurdle that Biden and the Democrats face in the mid-terms is that the worldwide economy and oil prices are still kind of going nuts post-COVID. Of course, the Republicans are blaming Biden’s spending for it, which is substantially untrue. And OPEC is entirely out of Biden’s control except by way of diplomacy or military force, and a lot of the oil price issues is their doing, not Biden’s or the US government’s.
Plus, the Republicans should be happy that oil prices are high; it lets all those places like Montana, North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Alaska be very profitable and employ a lot of people. But of course their base is generally too ignorant to put two and two together and realize that low oil prices benefit them, but screw those other states, and vice-versa. TANSTAAFL, but they don’t really see it like that.
I dunno, were I the kind of person to bet, I’d put my money on him being just as alive and nearly as… functional? as today two years from now.
To my eye, he looks unwell. He will be on my list for 2023.