Post-BRexit fallout and happenings

Great username / post combo.

What will happen with Northern Ireland now? Sinn Fein has called for a referendum on removing the border with the Republic of Ireland. Does this have a chance of actually happening? Is there a possibility that things are going to kick off again over there, so to speak, or is that fear overblown?

What you mean we, white man?

I have to say I’m not particularly surprised.

I work in London but live in a rural area and the typical conversation over the last few weeks has seen some interesting behaviour that mirrors what we saw in the general election last year.

The undertone of the “remain” camp for the past few days has been that if you are voting to leave it must be because you are against migration and therefore a racist. Who then can be surprised when the opinion polls show a swing towards “remain”. This is the “shy Tory” phenomenon all over again.

i.e. when officially confronted with the question “stay or go” (in a large group say) people have equivocated and hummed and haaahed and the easy impression to get was that there was a move towards “stay”.
However, in more unguarded moments there was a definite preference to go. And no, the topic highest on the list of reasons to go was not immigration, not by a long way. It was definitely concern over the future direction of Europe and democratic self-determination.
My own preference has always been for a much looser association of european countries with far less bureaucracy. That was always going to be impossible within the E.U. as it stands and it may well be that in the extended period of negotiated withdrawal we see the E.U. change further and farther than it otherwise would have done. That will be a healthy process for all involved but not without pain. It may even result in an institution that the UK can once again sign up for.

In short, no-one knows what will happen (other than an obvious dip in the pound). Those that claimed to know prior to this vote were deluded and no-one is any the wiser now.

Can’t tell if serious… Scotland voted 62% for remain, I can’t see many future possibilities where the UK stays united. NI will also push for unification with Ireland to stay in the EU. And for fucks sake, Trump cares about Trump, he’d fuck England / Wales over hard if it benefits him in some way, any anyway, he’s not going to be the next President.

What was the vote in Northern Ireland?

NI 56% to remain.

The celebrating Brexit supporters who think this is not going to lead to the break up of the UK are kidding themselves.

How much do you want to bet?

So, your prediction in the previous paragraph is worthless.

Obama has already sort of dismissed that. Maybe the next President will try something like it.

Greece is in a very different position than is Great Britain.

I think Greece should have left the Eurozone already, but leaving the EU is a huge step.

Right now, no, I don’t think it will happen. Greece is mostly just trying to deal with a refugee crisis as best it can.

I was being partly flippant, partly serious.

Scottish independence won’t happen anytime soon. It was your implication that the UK will split that I took issue with. There is a fairly strong correlation between the likelihood of Scottish independence and it’s oil wealth. Independence won’t happen imo until oil reaches something close to $100 per barrel.

He’s from Hawai’i, and wasn’t even raised by his Kenyan biological father.

The thing is, it may be much harder for Scotland to join after the UK has actually left the EU, that hasn’t happened yet and the two year count down won’t start until the PM invokes article 50. So Scotland has two years approx to decide if they go or stay.

(bolding mine)

You misspelled “gripping”.

No. Its you who are kidding yourself if you think that a preference for “remain” is also necessarily a desire to end the United Kingdom if it does leave.

Firstly, the SNP no longer has a majority in the Scottish Parliament, it will need other parties agreement to get an agreement for a new referendum, which is very unlikely. So at the very least the referendum will have to wait until after the next Scottish election; due in 2020.

Secondly, Scotland has seen a major rise in Tory support, they went from 4th to 2nd in the last election.

Thirdly, the EU is in existential crises, Eurocrats statements notwithstanding. Who knows whether there even will be an EU (as we know it) in a few years. I really seriously doubt that people are going to jump out of the UK, to join a club which might bot even exist shortly.

LOL! Funniest thing I’ve read today. Not going to happen!

I voted remain but am not surprised by the result. Remain’s campaign was negative, dishonest and patronising.

I don’t think anyone expects this to be easy, whatever side they voted for. There are treaties to be negotiated, funds to disentangled, tax code to re-write and some EU officials have said they will make this difficult (which may not be official). Trade is just going to continue, treaties or not, and exports might get a boost from the weak pound.

Unfortunately I think the EU has misjudged the mood badly. The problem is that the more vindictive the EU is, the more they look like the dictators the Leave campaign portrayed them as, and overseas that plays straight into the hands of people like Marine LePen.

Whatever happens, I think Gary Lineker is pretty accurate.

Sadly you’ve just summed up one of the reasons why Remain lost - a small faction who kept insisting the only reason people would vote Leave were race-based. I was organising an unrelated information stand and got to watch this in action. On a street stall, when voters approached with sensible concerns about tax (e.g. the Tampon Tax), governance, obstructions to recycling, all certain of the Remain campaigners would answer with was that the voter was racist. If the number of people who glared and walked away were anything to judge by, it alienated potential voters. You don’t win hearts and minds with insults. The Leave campaign stand opposite cottoned on and started pushing the tax issues then sending people across…

I don’t think you are considering that the EU, as it is, is hardly a cohesive or influential enough force to do- well- anything. Vindictive or not.

In fact, that’s part of the problem: the European Parliament, Council and Comission are such a vague, shapeless figure that they became the perfect strawman for the raising Nationalisms of the XXI century to attack.

David Cameron is announcing that he will step down in October.

Respect - for once - to him for his graciousness in doing the decent thing but I think he was going to be resigning anyway; he just hoped to do it on a high note.

Without preferential rates…and since when is increased exports a good thing when profits decrease?