Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

[aceplace57]

Russia is still attacking Bakhmut. They’re losing territory everywhere else but have never stopped trying to take Bakhmut.

Very odd because it doesn’t seem very important. I’ve seen reports of attacks being repelled in the past few days.

Ukraine war: Inside Bakhmut, the battered Donbas city holding off Putin's troops

Before the Russian invasion in February, Bakhmut was home to around 70,000 people, and was known for its salt mines and sparkling wine production. Now it is battered, and largely lifeless.

Def Mon

[Walken_After_Midnight]

@Al128

AND there are already (russian) telegram posts mentioning that Ukr is entering what is the opposite river bank at Nova Kakhovka (thats the top left corner of the white map legend) … so that’s another 20-25km south of what this today’s map shows

This doesn’t make sense to me. The Nova Khakhovka river crossing is surely the main strategic objective, but it’s probably more than 40 km behind the current front line.

@aceplace57

Russia is still attacking Bakhmut.

The amount of times I’ve read something along the lines of: “The enemy attacked in the Bakhmut direction. They were repelled.”

WarTranslated (Dmitri)

[Al128]

@aceplace57

Russia is still attacking Bakhmut. They’re losing territory everywhere else but have never stopped trying to take Bakhmut.

Very odd because it doesn’t seem very important. I’ve seen reports of attacks being repelled in the past few days.

they have been attacking Bakhmut for nearly 2 months now … (go figure … I think at this stage its something “personal”) or maybe somebody really-really needs his Q4 bonus

further up north, the writing is on the wall in Swatowe … Russians are already starting to pull out heavy engineer corps machinery

NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦

to be honest, it is nearly impossible to not see the whole russian $hit$how imploding over the next few days/weeks … first gradually, then suddenly

[aceplace57]

The liberated cities are in very bad shape. Anything of value stolen or destroyed.

It’s heartbreaking.

There will be a lot of jobs rebuilding Ukraine after the war ends.

‘What was it all for?’: recaptured Lyman left shattered by Russian occupation

[Magiver]

@Al128

Bakhmut

Maybe Ukraine should think about capturing construction equipment for the rebuilding process.

[FlikTheBlue]

@iiandyiiii

@Al128

Interesting tidbit: for whatever reason, russians are not firing artillery from the east bank to stop the Ukr. advances …

Over and over again, one of the biggest themes of this war is that if the Russians aren’t doing something (like, say, heavily bombarding Kyev) , it’s probably because they don’t have the capability rather than because they choose not to.

My guess is that the Russians don’t (or didn’t at the time the recent Kherson offensive started) have any artillery in the area. They probably had it all on the front lines. Since the east bank of the river wasn’t on the front line up until a few days ago, they probably didn’t feel the need to station any of their already stretched thin forces there.

[smithsb]

IMMEDIATE RELEASE
$625 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
Oct. 4, 2022 |
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $625 million to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s twenty-second drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

Capabilities in this package include:

Four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition; bring it!!!
16 155mm Howitzers; Yeah!!
75,000 155mm artillery rounds; Yeah baby!!!
500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds; Whoohoo!!!
1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems; Yes!!!
16 105mm Howitzers; More!!!
30,000 120mm mortar rounds; Those trenches are going to be death traps.
200 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles; Get everybody to the attack points.
200,000 rounds of small arms ammunition; a few days supply
Obstacle emplacement equipment; winter’s coming
Claymore anti-personnel munitions. a surprise in every package

Editorial flourishes - mine.

[Al128]

.
:.:.;. <= (grains of salt)

205th Russian Motorized Brigade on Telegram (make sure to check the timestamps)

.

[DrDeth]

@aceplace57

The liberated cities are in very bad shape. Anything of value stolen or destroyed.

According to various Journalists Kuwait was really bad too, perhaps even worse.

It is very bad to be conquered by barbarians.

[Machine_Elf]

@TokyoBayer

Basically, he’s saying that people are feeding reports showing that things are going better than they actually are, which then leads to further defeats as the people at the top are working on bad information.

The link in this post pretty solidly confirms what he said:

Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

excellent reading!!! - addressing probably a very relevant problem in russia’s culture… . … and it is also probably easier to understand how russian DOD reports stuff like “The Moscva made it into port under its own power” - when everybody can see the Moscva’s debris floating as a patch the size of Rhode Island.

[Velocity]

@smithsb

Four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition; bring it!!!
16 155mm Howitzers; Yeah!!
75,000 155mm artillery rounds; Yeah baby!!!
500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds; Whoohoo!!!
1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems; Yes!!!
16 105mm Howitzers; More!!!
30,000 120mm mortar rounds; Those trenches are going to be death traps.
200 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles; Get everybody to the attack points.
200,000 rounds of small arms ammunition; a few days supply
Obstacle emplacement equipment; winter’s coming
Claymore anti-personnel munitions. a surprise in every package

Editorial flourishes - mine.

For once, I want to see an official Pentagon press release that does in fact say “yeah baby!!!”

Are the 155mm howitzers the Paladin or M777 variety?

[Magiver]

I’m wondering if Putin has purchased any land in Argentina?

[eschereal]

@Al128

.
:.:.;. <= (grains of salt)

205th Russian Motorized Brigade on Telegram (make sure to check the timestamps)

This does not give me a good feeling. The sense of desperation is deeply disturbing, even as much as I do not want the Russians to have any success. This (grains of salt notwithstanding) represents the voice of a human person on the verge of being zipped up into a black bag. They are not a person pursuing a laudable enterprise, but it still bothers me.

@Magiver

I’m wondering if Putin has purchased any land in Argentina?

In the Falkland Islands, where he can re-enact that war.

[aceplace57]

Update on Kherson. I find his explanations of the rivers and roads helpful.

He also has updates on the battle along the Dnipro river. Ukraine forces are making steady gains crossing the river and taking territory.

Update from Ukraine | Ruzzia Runs from the South | Kherson will be liberated

[TokyoBayer]

@Machine_Elf

The link in this post pretty solidly confirms what he said:

I missed that when it was posted and this is insane! How can you run a military that way?

[Machine_Elf]

@TokyoBayer

I missed that when it was posted and this is insane! How can you run a military that way?

Russia is demonstrating, quite convincingly, that you cannot.

[DesertDog]

GIDO, Garbage In, Defeat Out.

[aceplace57]

How can this war ever end?

The biggest power plant stolen.

Guardian blog

Kremlin: occupied Ukrainian regions ‘will be with Russia forever’ despite retreats

The Kremlin said this morning that there was no contradiction between incorporating Ukrainian territories into the Russian Federation and military retreats, saying that Moscow would press ahead with its plans to annex four Ukrainian regions.

“They will be with Russia forever and they will be returned,” Reuters reports Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the media.

President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Wednesday ordering the Russian government to take control of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and make it “federal property”, Reuters reported.

The plant, the biggest in Europe, is controlled by Russian troops but has been operated until now by Ukrainian staff. Its proximity to the frontline of fighting has raised international fears of a nuclear disaster.

[What_Exit]

Probably only a change in Russian Leader will end this war.

[Northern_Piper]

From EuroIntelligence:

La Repubblica tells us that Nato has warned its members that the Russian nuclear submarine K-329 Belgorod, stationed in the Arctic port of Severodvinsk, has mysteriously disappeared. Before a nuclear attack occurs, weapons have to be moved. But we cannot infer from a lack of movement that they won’t be used. Nor can we infer that their use is more likely because we have spotted a movement.

Our own assessment is that the likelihood of a nuclear war rises in proportion to the likelihood of a Russian defeat. We are no military experts, but we are trained in logical inference. If we consider the likelihood of a Russian defeat in Ukraine as high, as so many experts now seem to believe, than surely, the likelihood of a nuclear attack cannot be simultaneously low. If we agree with Garry Kasparov that Putin will not personally survive a defeat, then why should he refrain from using nuclear weapons?

The risk, we conclude from the knowledge we have, is not small and rising, as the noted expert claims, but large and stable.

https://www.eurointelligence.com/