I’m not thinking the US has any MIM-72s anywhere, not even in some Army surplus garbage boneyard someplace. It’s been 20+ years since the last was parked.
If any friendlies are still operating them, it can’t be many fire units still usable.
I’d sooner bet it’s gonna be quicky-integrated onto some other newer chassis / launcher. If you’re willing to fire the Aim-9M in boresight mode where the seeker is staring straight ahead, all you really need to integrate is a “prep to fire” signal when enemy is sighted or cued by a radar, followed by “fire” when you’ve got the launch head tracking the passing aircraft. Dirt simple using discrete voltages on discrete wires; this is not advanced cybernetic hardware; more like 1960s relay-driven telephone systems.
My bet is they integrate to fire them from SA-8 launchers. it’s not like UKR is going to get any more SA-8 missiles to shoot off those things.
Well it’s day 2. My understanding is that Russia has stopped sending armor and is now just sending infantry to be killed.
That’s 26 tanks, 49 APVs and 44 artillery systems!
On review I realized I was being like the Russians and ignoring the cost in people. Yesterday was 990 soldiers, todays report was 1030.
I liked this part from that article: "After the first [attack], Russian minesweepers and divers were unable to discover our ‘know-how,’” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. “[The SBU] warns Muscovites that there is no need to go through Ukrainian waters if you want to preserve at least some remnants of your fleet.”
Has there ever been any confirmation about the casualties from the Ukraine strike on Black Sea Fleet HQ last month? There was a rumour that the overall commander of the Fleet was killed. Has that been confirmed?
I think that one was mis-reported. Russia showed some videos with him after the strike, and I don’t think anyone was able to show that those videos were fake, so I think it’s been accepted that the initial reports were wrong.
Doesn’t this mean that Sevastapol has lost its value as a deep-water port? Even if Ukraine retakes Crimea, it’s close enough to Russian territory that Russia could make similar offensive measures?
For the duration of active hostilities, I’d say “Yes”; it’s too dangerous for either side to use freely as a naval base.
Once whatever sort of cold war or hot peace settles in between Russia and Ukraine, Sevastopol will remain vulnerable. As does every harbor on Earth near a hostile border. IOW every port in NK, SK, Cuba, Hong Kong, and maybe Taiwan. And in light of very recent events, Israel.
It’s all a matter of how much strategic warning of impending hostilities you expect to have. Or can stand to be surprised about.
Merchant ships being more replaceable than naval vessels, I’d expect Sevastopol to still be a commerce port during a post-war ceasefire / cold war era even if the Ukrainian Navy was unwilling to base there.
Ukraine currently has basically no navy (unless you count things like drone boats), and while they might wish to change that in the future, that would be after the current conflict is ended and they’re admitted to NATO. So the value of a naval port is essentially irrelevant to them.
Even if they managed to capture some Russian warships intact (which I wouldn’t put past them), it takes time to train up crews to man them effectively.
Ukraine is purchasing two Ada-class corvettes from Turkey, the first of which was launched last fall and is expected to be complete some time in 2024. Turkish shipyard launches Ukraine's 1st MILGEM corvette - Naval News The second was just laid down a couple months ago. If circumstances remain as they are currently, it wouldn’t shock me if Ukraine didn’t take delivery until the war is over, as they would basically just be targets given that Ukraine could not really shield them from Russian aviation. However, these vessels are serious warships. They are primarily designed as anti-sub platforms, but carry anti-ship missiles (Harpoon, Neptune, possibly others) as well, and will no doubt have some AA capability.
As for post-war, I would expect a re-constituted Ukrainian navy to be based in Sevastopol (on the assumption that the Russians don’t retain control of Crimea). While Odesa also has good port facilities, there’s a reason the USSR always based its fleet in Sevastopol. It is the superior strategic location. Also, if Ukraine is admitted to NATO, one might expect them to play host to USN, RN, or other allied vessels in Sevastopol. This would make the Black Sea almost as unwelcoming for the Russian navy as the Baltic Sea is. Poor things, at least they’ll still have Murmansk.
Apropos of comments earlier today about Sevastopol …
In another admirable display of Ukrainian chutzpah, at the launching of that Ada-class corvette they announced its home port is Sevastapol, Ukraine. It’s just not parked there … yet.
