Oops. Though in my defense, I needed a TE who will produce this season since I can’t rely on Reed, and I didn’t think Hochenson or Fant would be immediately productive because rookie TEs rarely are.
1.08 Darwin Thompson RB KC
Like I said at the time a bit of a reach, but with the remaining RBs on the board I thought he had the most upside. In that offense he’ll get his chances, but will he make the most of it seems to be the question. I was planning after the NFL draft at going WR here but I saw that after my top 3 RBs I have no depth (especially with Gordon holding out) so because of our tendency to go RB heavy I played right into that inclination.
2.08 Miles Boykin WR Bal
Well Brown had himself a day didn’t he? Actually they both had a good start to the year. Boykin was my number 2 WR (from a skills standpoint), but because of the Ravens offense I probably wouldn’t have taken him before some of the other WRs if I had an earlier pick, but I was happy to get him. Now we will see if that was just the product of a poor Miami D.
3.08 KeeSean Johnson WR Ari
I was happy to have him land here as he is most likely Fitzgerald’s replacement and along side Kirk should have some good opportunities. I was a little worried during the 1st half with Murray’s performance, but he seemed to settle down. He did have 5 balls batted down and I think his height will be an issue for him and could limit the WRs effectiveness.
Trying to reverse engineer this a bit for my own narcissistic reasons. Looking to understand how these are weighted on the “dynasty” aspects versus the winning this year as illustrated by these WR ranks.
Here’s the rosters:
1. Hamlet:
Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Keenan Allen, Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, Christian Kirk, Michael Gallup, Marquise Lee
2. Jules:
Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Anthony Miller, Albert Wilson, James Washington, Hakeem, Butler, Terry McLaurin, Preston Williams
3. Omni:
Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Jakobi Meyers
4. Overly:
Davante Adams, Sammy Watkins, Antonio Brown, Paul Richardson, DaVante Parker, Adam Humphries, Randall Cobb, John Ross
5. Beef:
TY Hilton, Tyler Lockett, Josh Gordon, Allen Robinson, Keke Coutee, Deebo Samuel, Andy Isabella, Damion Willis, Robert Foster, Antonio Callaway, Chris Conley
I bolded who I think are the top 4 since that the max you can start. Do those rankings pass the smell test? I wouldn’t say that there’s a clear outlier, but it’s a little interesting how depth and age appear to influence things. Can’t decide myself if I agree or disagree overall.
Hamlet is I think the most suspect ranking. Thomas and JJ make as good a 1-2 as any, but I don’t think there’s really much separation there either. Allen and Williams injury history (and River’s age) pushes them down quite a lot in my mind but the SD offense has long been on my “stay away” list so maybe I’m too biased. Kirk is interesting but I can’t say much for the depth and dynasty upside there.
Jules is crazy deep and I like the dynasty upside a lot, but I think my top 5 are quite a bit better. Depth is probably my biggest liability but if we’re looking at 2019 prospects, I like my group a fair bit better.
Overly would have been a distant 5th before this weekends games in my mind, but with Brown’s cozy landing spot and Watkins & Ross’ big days, he’s got a much stronger case in retrospect. That said, when these rankings were provided I probably would have agreed with the placement mostly on the backs of that Adams-Brown combo because the dynasty upside is shaky at best.
Beef’s probably got both the weakest top 2 and the second weakest top 4 but he went really really hard on dynasty upside. Didn’t seem to influence his ranking all that much.
Not sure what my overall point is, but this is interesting I think.
Some postdraft and week 1 thoughts:
I’m really pleased I managed to pull off the Gurley trade as easily as I did. I think he’s a transcendent talent, though I may have given up a shot at years 3-5 for years 1-2. It all just fell into place when I had m. Brown in the bench and knew I could get the new guy at 1.04. I was thinking I’d be able to start Gurley and Henderson most weeks and just vacuum it all up but browns tds yesterday will complicate that. I hope the Johnson’s will be enough depth.
I was about to lose it when I couldn’t move AB during his shenanigans, but now that he parlayed it into playing for the Pats (!!!) I’m about as happy as a pig in shit. It’s clearly the best possible landing for him. TB may not be able to do it all anymore but he can still hit an open man, and nobody gets open better. Adams is the core of this corps for the next half decade, and I still feel like it’s time to get in on Watkins, and to a lesser extent, Ross and Parker.
I consciously decided to forgo depth at TE because I feel like everybody outside the top 3-4 is replacement level.
Have to love my qb situation also. I’m higher on Watson than even Mahomes long-term, at least til I see the latter do it without Reid. I think Watson will be the anchor of this squad for as long I care to forecast, and Goff behind him is as good of a backup as you could hope for.
All in all, I’m thinking this can be a banner year with a couple good breaks, and I’m certainly more interested in this team than I was a year ago.
Thanks for responding! It’s more fun when people engage, and especially to disagree. The team and positional rankings are just projected scoring for this season. Only the Youth ranking factors in how your starters are projected to do beyond this season.
With the exception of TE, every positional ranking is your max number of starters plus one. So, for WRs, it counts every team’s top five. This is because that 5th WR could see a start during bye weeks, depending on how a team’s roster is constructed. For TE, it is just the top 2 because very few people would ever start 2 during the bye weeks to make a third relevant.
If we just count the top four, which my ranking does not but I think you may have due to the bolding you chose (despite the number 5 in the quoted post), your top 4 are indeed better than mine. The difference is very slight, however. We’re talking somewhere around 15-25 fantasy points over a season. However, Golden Tate being suspended means your 5th guy has a pretty depressed rating, which brought your ranking down. My 5th guy, Corey Davis, has had disappointing stats thus far in his career (and like everyone on my team, shit the bed week one), but still has an overall projection of a startable flex. He’s high enough that he not only beats Golden Tate’s projection, but makes up the slight difference from the top 4.
Here’s how each of the selected teams look at WR when you also include the projected scoring over the next five seasons (including this year). I’ve included the top 4 WRs, with the extra reserve WR in parentheses:
Ides of Martz: 193.4 (217.6)
Exploding Pancakes: 161.7 (188.3)
Overly Sentimental: 179.2 (205.6)
Moridwon: 210.9 (248)
HungryHungryHaruspex: 198.3 (234.3)
I think the only difference between us is that, while Julio Jones is still obviously elite, my projections have him starting his (slow) decline over the next five seasons. All of my guys are young enough to potentially grow, including my 5th guy. Golden Tate’s age and production put him in sharp decline, and I am surprised my system has him lasting five years. That might actually be a glitch. You may take the second spot in both rankings if one of your other depth guys takes a leap. But, again, nobody comes close to Hamlet’s group
Nevermind
Really. You can’t say much for the depth and dynasty upside there? Wow, do we disagree. But who is surprised by that.
Thomas and Smith Schuster are top 5 dynasty WR’s, Allen is #10, Boyd was the #20 scoring WR last year and will soon be the #1 on his team, Gallup just went off for almost 20 points, and Kirk has a ton of potential. Yes, Mike Williams is injured and Marquise Lee is hot garbage so far, but I’d put my top 2, top 3, top 4, top 5, or top 6 against yours over the next few years anyday.
Here’s the full draft for bookkeeping purposes.
1.01 Petey - Josh Jacobs, RB, Oak
1.02 Beef - David Montgomery, RB, Chi
1.03 Justin - Miles Sanders, RB, Phi
1.04 Overly - Darrell Henderson, RB, LAR
1.05 Justin - Kyler Murray, QB, Arz
1.06 Omni - Justice Hill, RB, Bal
1.07 Gaffer - N’Keal Harry, WR, NE
1.08 Retro - Darwin Thompson, RB, KC
1.09 RNATB - T.J. Hockenson, TE, Det
1.10 Hamlet - Devin Singletary, RB, Buf
1.11 dale - Tony Pollard, RB, Dal
1.12 dale - Damien Harris, RB, NE
2.01 Petey - D.K. Metcalf, WR, Sea
2.02 Beef - Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
2.03 Justin - A.J. Brown, WR, Ten
2.04 Overly - Alexander Mattison, RB, Min
2.05 Ellis - Daniel Jones, QB, NYG
2.06 Omni - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Phi
2.07 Gaffer - Parris Campbell, WR, Ind
2.08 Retro - Miles Boykin, WR, Bal
2.09 RNATB - Mecole Hardman, WR, KC
2.10 Hamlet - Darren Waller, TE, Oak
2.11 RNATB - Noah Fant, TE, Den
2.12 Ellis - Marquise Brown, WR, Bal
3.01 Petey - Dwayne Haskins, QB, Was
3.02 Beef - Andy Isabella, WR, Arz
3.03 Ellis - Jalen Hurd, WR, SF
3.04 Overly - Will Grier, QB, Car
3.05 Jules - Justin Jackson, RB, LAC
3.06 Omni - Nick Foles, QB, Jax
3.07 Gaffer - Ryquell Armstead, RB, Jax
3.08 Retro - KeeSean Johnson, WR, Arz
3.09 Jules - Terry McLaurin, WR, Was
3.11 Jules - Preston Williams, WR, Mia
3.12 Jules - Hakeem Butler, WR, Ari
4.01 Petey - Irv Smith, Jr., TE, Min
4.02 Beef - Damion Willis, WR, Cin
4.04 dale - Dallas, DEF
4.05 dale - Cam Sims, WR, Was
4.06 Omni - Jakobi Meyers, WR, NE
4.07 Gaffer - Dare Ogunbawale, RB, TB
4.11 Jules - Bryce Love, RB, Was
5.02 Beef - Keke Coutee, WR, HOU
5.06 Omni - Drew Lock, QB, Den
5.11 Jules - Devine Ozigbo, RB, Jax
6.06 Omni - Dexter Williams, RB, GB
This actually seems like a fair assessment.
I’m very happy with the Murray pick and I was thrilled that dale and I were able to work out a trade to make it happen. That might handicap me in 2020, but he seems like the real deal (though I would not be surprised if he goes back to baseball in the next 3-4 years).
That would certainly fit a pattern as every time I try to get younger my draft just seems to go sideways. Zay Jones was the BPA at WR at my pick two years ago and while he’s not quite a bust yet, he’s not the instant #1 that he was projected as either. And last year, I went all-in on Royce Freeman and that’s currently looking like a mistake, but who knows.
Maybe Miles Sanders and AJ Brown will turn my streak around. I like Brown and I think Corey Davis is a bust, so I’m hopeful he’ll be a regular contributor sooner rather than later to offset Fitzgerald and Edelman retiring (and probably DeSean Jackson before too long as well).
Who does your data tag as Hamlet’s #5?
This probably highlights a inherent challenge with that type of projection. Any team’s top 5 in year 1 will be different than their top 5 in year 5 (and in most years in between).
I do largely expect that Tate’s days are numbered, frankly I wouldn’t be shocked if I’m dropping him in 2 years. But I think Corey Davis is and always has been fools gold, but if the “expert” rankings still like him that easily explains the disconnect.
If we’re just looking at this year (which **Jules **confirmed is the case) this makes sense. But, here’s where I see the holes.
WR1: Julio vs. Thomas - I like Jones better this year and every year going forward. I love Thomas, he was a long time feature in several of my league and I had him in HHM as a rockstar keeper since his rookie year. But here’s where I think it really matters, Brees is 40 and I think he’s done in 2 years making Thomas a major unknown long term.
WR2: JuJu vs. Golladay - I like Golladay better, but I totally concede I’m probably on an island with that one. We don’t know what to expect out of JuJu with AB gone and him receiving double coverage. Most of the rankings project him as basically being the new AB, but I’m not convinced. I think Golladay will be the next Michael Thomas.
WR3: Adam Thielen vs. Keenan Allen - Not sure what the ratings say, but gimme Thielen all day simply based on availability. Factor in the eventual Rivers’ retirement and this feels like an easy win over the next 5 years.
WR4: Robert Woods vs. Mike Williams - I think Mike Williams is a much, much sexier pick and again I don’t know what happens when Rivers is gone, but when you factor in health and outside factors I much prefer the high-floor of Woods when thinking about a WR4. Wouldn’t be shocked if Jules’ chart sees this as a big win in your favor though.
WR5: Golden Tate vs. Tyler Boyd - If you’re a Boyd believer (I’m not, mostly because that offense is gonna suck for a while) and you think Tate’s days are numbered, this is a win for you. Even if Boyd under performs I concede that Tate’s best days are behind him.
Bench/Depth: Arcega-Whiteside/Meyers vs. Kirk/Gallup/Lee - I acknowledged that depth is my biggest weakness and I give you a win here, but even so I don’t think it’s a huge gap. Kirk vs. JJ is probably pretty close. Meyers is a total unknown and Brady will be gone soon (maybe?). I’d take Jules guys over yours any day.
Thomas is 4 years younger than Julio, who is already 30. For two guys with pretty identical production, I’ll take that anyday.
JuJu was #10 WR last year. Hell, my #4 WR, Tyler Boyd, outscored Golladay last year. JuJu is also 3 years younger, and a top 5 ranked WR in dynasty while Golladay is #15.
You know what surprised me. Keenan Allen is 2 years YOUNGER than Adam Thielen, who is already 29 years old. If you want the guy on a run first team with Kirk Cousins over guy who has missed just one game in the last 2 years and is the clear #1 on his pass first team, have at it. Especially when you add in my having Mike Williams in case anything happens to Keenan.
I’d actually mix those up, putting Boyd at #4 and Williams at #5. And, at this point on my roster, I’d much rather Boyd and Williams’ upside over the next few years over the “low floor” of Robert Woods (who has exactly 1 1,000 yard season in 5 years and is one of 3 mouths to feed). Don’t even get me started on Golden Tate. Hell, I’d rather Arcega Whiteside than Tate, who I would never, ever want to start. At this point on my roster, give me the upside over low floor.
I like Arcega Whiteside alot, but Gallup is looking really good so far this season. But I agree, this is a win for me too.
I would take any of Hamlet’s guys over any of yours except Julio. I am not a huge fan of Jules’ wideouts because it feels like a roster of Little Fast Guys who get injured a lot and fade quickly once they do. Not coincidentally, I owned (and traded away) both Brandin Cooks and Tyreek Hill.
Ahem.
Josh Gordon.
Let’s check back in when Golladay leads the league in WR TDs this year. 
SDMB-Dynasty League - Week 1
**Rnk Week 1…Actual
- Hamlet…192.40
- Overly…145.10
- dale…144.40
- Justin…136.50
- Retro…131.35
- RNATB…129.80
- Petey…125.70
- Gaffer…120.85
- Beef…120.45
- Omni…114.24
- Ellis…113.55
- Jules…75.45**
**Rnk Week 1…Potential
- Hamlet…211.00
- Ellis…206.40
- Overly…191.20
- dale…169.75
- Justin…160.40
- Petey…154.10
- Retro…153.95
- Gaffer…149.85
- Beef…147.30
- RNATB…147.00
- Jules…134.65
- Omni…117.34**
**Rnk Week 1…Coach.
- Omni…97% A+
- Hamlet…91% A-
- RNATB…88% B+
- Retro…85% B
- Justin…85% B
- dale…85% B
- Beef…82% B-
- Petey…82% B-
- Gaffer…81% B-
- Overly…76% C
- Jules…56% F
- Ellis…55% F**
My “F” coaching grade doesn’t surprise me at all. What does surprise me is that my 200+ potential wasn’t tops. Hamlet is off to a crazy good start.
Um, yay???
One week. no injuries. I can’t imagine that will continue.
Although, for shits and grins, I totaled up my backups as if they were starters. With the typical starting lineup, I’d have Rivers, Mack, Singletary, Boyd, Kirk, Gallup, Williams, Waller, Fairburne, and Buffalo D as my starters. I would have scored 133.07, which would have been the 5th highest score of the week. Scary when my bench is competitive too.
But, like I said, it’s not likely to continue.
Pretty bad start for the good guys. Continuing last season’s trend, I had a ton of injuries, horrifically underperformed compared to projection, and had a week where none of my WRs, RBs, or TE scored a TD. If anyone has ever scored fewer points compared to their projection in the history of this league, I would be surprised.
I now have 55% of my opening day roster hurt. Tyreek Hill is out 4-6 weeks, Hunter Henry is out 4-6 weeks, and James Conner and Joe Mixon are not practicing and likely won’t play. And in a development that has become all too common for me over the last year, even my fucking kicker was hurt. Cannily, I suspected he would miss the game before Sunday and picked up a replacement. Except the replacement I got scored 0 points, because of course he did.
Do we really have to go through the bullshit pageantry and formality of having a season, or can I just start the 2020 draft with the 1.01 now?
I never thought I’d be in a position to start 2-0. However, I’m well aware that my roster is paper thin and when bye weeks and the inevitable injuries set in, I’ll be scraping to put a team together.