So, who won the freaking election already?

Great Debates
161

[QUOTE=Random]
It’s looking fairly grim for Webb in Virginia. According to CNN, there’s 93% in, and Webb’s down by 32,000 votes.

True, Richmond City and 1-2 other big Webb counties have a disproportionate amount of their votes out, but it doesn’t seem that enough Webb votes are outstanding to make up the deficit. Prediction: It’ll narrow, but Allen will win. Maybe 15-18K vote margin.

(and I’m betting that absentees are likely to favor Allen. If I’m wrong about that, this one could be very interesting.)
[/QUOTE]

Allen by 12k with 95% precincts reporting
http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm

162

[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
This is wrong. Ellison is black but he’s not a “Black Muslim.” He’s a Sunni. He’s never been a member of the Nation of Islam and actually denounces both the NOI and Louis Farrakhan.

Not that the NOI has anything to do with Islam.
[/QUOTE]

Very and obviously true. The vodka isn’t helping.

163

[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
Not that the NOI has anything to do with Islam.
[/QUOTE]

Of course, there’s that whole “Islam” part of “Nation of Islam.”

164

[QUOTE=Frank]
He seems to have had some association with the NoI ~1990, but has since become more traditional.
[/QUOTE]

He denies ever being a member of the NOI. He apparently wrote some stuff denying that Farrakhan was an antisemite when he was a law student but has now disavowed those words.

The guy gets slammed on a lot of right wing blogs as a “Black Muslim” but that allegation is bullshit.

165

Tennessee also looks certain to tighten up.

CNN reports Corker up over Ford, 52% - 47% with 70% of the precincts reporting. That’s a 59,000 vote lead. Sounds good for the Republican, right?

Actually, no. Ford’s two biggest counties are disproportionately out, with enough Ford votes to make up the difference twice over. Most Corker counties are in. I don’t know Tennessee all that well, but I see this as going Dem.

166

[QUOTE=Evil Captor]
Of course, there’s that whole “Islam” part of “Nation of Islam.”
[/QUOTE]

Which is not the religion of Islam’s fault. They are actually two different religions.

167

The Nation of Islam may as well be the Nation of Space Aliens for all it has to do with Islam.

Anyway, what’s this about automatic recount in VA? The numbers Allen appears to be winning by look bigger than the margin Bush won some states by.

168

In VA, a difference of less than 1% means that if the loser asks for a recount, it is automatically granted.

169

[QUOTE=Loopydude]
Anyway, what’s this about automatic recount in VA? The numbers Allen appears to be winning by look bigger than the margin Bush won some states by.
[/QUOTE]

I don’t think there is an automatic recount in Virginia. The loser must request it. I think the state will spring for the cost if it’s close enough, but it must be requested.

170

[QUOTE=Rachm Qoch]
Allen by 12k with 95% precincts reporting
http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm
[/QUOTE]

Odd. CNN now also showing 95% of the vote in, but with Allen up by over 28k.

Let me check the counties.

171

[QUOTE=Random]
Odd. CNN now also showing 95% of the vote in, but with Allen up by over 28k.

Let me check the counties.
[/QUOTE]

CNN wasn’t posting Arlington, which is all Webb’s.

172

[QUOTE=Random]
Odd. CNN now also showing 95% of the vote in, but with Allen up by over 28k.

Let me check the counties.
[/QUOTE]

If CNN is right, and ignoring absentees, I predict that the 5% outstanding will generate 24k net Webb votes, giving this to Allen by 4000 votes.

(The 3 biggest counties still out are Webb territory.)

173

[QUOTE=Rachm Qoch]
CNN wasn’t posting Arlington, which is all Webb’s.
[/QUOTE]

Richmond City is also disproportionately out. But I did factor Arlington into my calculations. It’s a big part of the 24,000 votes I’m giving to Webb.

174

[QUOTE=Evil Captor]
Of course, there’s that whole “Islam” part of “Nation of Islam.”
[/QUOTE]

True. There’s also that whole “Jew” part of “Messianic Jew”.

175

CBS News gave the Dems 12 of the 15 seats they need to control the House before they closed at 11, with many races still uncalled. They seem out of step with much of what I’ve encountered in other media, but so far they haven’t had to retract any of the calls they’ve made.

176

[QUOTE=Random]
Richmond City is also disproportionately out. But I did factor Arlington into my calculations. It’s a big part of the 24,000 votes I’m giving to Webb.
[/QUOTE]

They seem to not be reporting any of Louden or P.W. counties. Is this correct? Nailbiter…

177

Kyl ® wins in AZ, according to MSNBC. They’re projecting a +29 seat pick-up in the House.

178

A conspiracy theorist might draw some interesting (but premature) conclusions about the pattern of counties which have delayed vote reports in Virginia and Tennessee. Very similar to the pattern in Ohio in 2004.

179

[QUOTE=Loopydude]
They seem to not be reporting any of Louden or P.W. counties. Is this correct? Nailbiter…
[/QUOTE]

Loudon is 80% in, but even though 20% is out, the results so far are so close that the remaining votes won’t provide much of a swing. PW is at 68%, and will help Webb a little.

(Of course, there is no way of knowing just which precincts are out. I’m assuming those that are out will break similarly to those (in the same county) that have reported. But there’s no way to tell for sure.)

180

[QUOTE=John Mace]
Kyl (R) wins in AZ, according to MSNBC. They’re projecting a +29 seat pick-up in the House.
[/QUOTE]

Many formerly solid Rep. districts are falling in the House like dominoes. CNN just
announced that it’s virtually certain that the House will go to the Demos now.