popular vote:
40 Biden
21 Sanders
13 Steyer
9 Buttigieg
8 Warren
5 Klobuchar
3 Gabbard
My predictions are that Steyer and Warren switch places and Biden over-performs.
I think Biden will do worse than that 40% and I think Sanders will do better than 21%. I will be shocked if Tom Steyer gets double digit support.
From what I’ve heard from people volunteering for Pete on the ground there is that a lot of the mild support for Pete/Steyer/Amy is uniting behind Biden in a desperate bid to STOP SANDERS!
The Nevada blowout scared a lot of people, I think Steyer loses the most.
I’ll go with a blowout win for Biden, Sanders second, Pete third. I’m not sure Pete gets to 15% though.
Yep. I can tell he’s back in contention.
Funny that SC might save Biden but in the fall he will get blown out there by Trump. Same as every other southern state except Virginia.
Funny that we put so much weight on Iowa and NH, even those theirs votes really arent that critical/
Looking forward to the results tonight.:dubious:
South Carolina has an open primary meaning you can vote for any side regardless of party affiliation.
As such republicans are encouraging Operation Chaos where republicans are encouraging republican voters to vote for Sanders.
I wonder if this will have any effect?
I am guessing we put weight on them because they are a first indication of which way voters are leaning.
And yeah, they are not at all representative of the rest of the country demographically but still, it stops the polling guessing game, rubber meets the road kinda thing.
I am dubious of extending those early results to the rest of the country but it is a starting data point.
What One Trump Supporter Thinks Of The Primary So Far | FiveThirtyEight In South Carolina (2:29 video). They just posted this; it’s interesting. I agree with this comment:
My impression of the gentleman is that he is a very low information voter who is used to catering to his own biases; i.e. a typical Trump supporter.
I pulled in to the school to vote and there were only 8 cars in the entire lot, including mine. Nothing like the traffic jam that the general election made in 2018. There was only one political sign at the corner, an AARP sign about high drug prices.
There was one voter leaving as I entered the school. The usual retirees who run the polling station outnumbered me, the lone voter. Presumably most of the cars in the lot were theirs. As I was leaving one other voter pulled in.
I voted at about 3:15pm. I was voter #65 for the day at my precinct. At that rate they might get to 100 for the day. This is a heavily Republican leaning part of the Upstate of SC, but those numbers don’t seem to point to much crossover voting here.
Nope. It takes someone extremely motivated to go out and rat fuck another party’s primary. Will there be a few? Sure, but how many people are so motivated to take time on a Saturday?
Plus: let’s face it, most Trump supporters already think he’s going to beat whomever he’s up against handily. They likely don’t think they have to ratfuck anything because they think “the rats are already fucked”.
It’s one thing to say “yeah, that’s great, we should totally vote in the other party’s primary!”
It’s another thing to actually get up on Saturday and decide to drive to the polling place and tell the poll workers you want a ballot for the other party, etc. I suspect very, very few would go to this effort. But we’ll see.
There could be the odd person or twenty who are Trump-Sanders voters who think of him as the lesser of the Democratic evils since he is a “disruptor” and/or sufficiently angry enough for their tastes. I for one almost registered as a Republican to vote for Jeb Bush not because he was less electable but because he was acceptable enough that it was worth it to vote for him versus Trump, but by the time the registration had ended the race was already down to Trump versus Cruz and that wasn’t worth it.
I think there will be even fewer people voting for Sanders because he’s a bad candidate. Last goaround there were some Democrats who mulled doing the same with Trump and for one, I don’t think anything much came of it, and for two, even if it did, how it work out for them?
The AP has already said that Biden won, but they don’t offer any numbers (yet).
Looks like Biden will win by 20+ points. Bernie the only other candidate to meet 15%.
We don’t know the final margin yet. Early reports were rural counties which likely favor Biden more than most. Random Twitter says that the exit polls are 38 to 22, Biden over Bernie. Still a big Biden win, obviously.
From the 538 live feed is this comment: “There has not been a surge of young voters at the polls this primary.”
The part of the Sanders electability theory that he drives turnout, especially among younger voters, has been very short corroborative evidence so far this cycle.
Super Tuesday will be interesting