The Cook Political Report calls North Carolina a tossup state for the Presidential election. Nate Silver currently gives Harris a win probability of 39% (which also implies that the state is a tossup).
Normally, yes. I think this guy completely changes the equation and NC could be significantly bluer than expected if it wasn’t for him.
I doubt that Robinson’s scandals will have much if any effect on the Presidential race in NC (although Harris is trying her darndest to make it an issue for Trump). It could have an impact further down ballot in NC state legislative and other races, which are critical if Stein wants to avoid another two years of a Democratic Governor having his vetoes routinely overridden by a Republican state legislative supermajority.
I can imagine some GOP voters who might be so turned off by Robinson that they don’t vote at all, and would have voted for Trump while they were in the booth. So, there could be some secondary effect and in a very close state like NC it could make a small difference.
And don’t forget the other federal races. I don’t know if NC has a Senator up this cycle, but there are bound to be a few House seats that could plausibly be flipped.
I think it would have an impact on overall enthusiasm for a republican to go out and vote, and honestly that is the most important thing in recent elections. For most people voting is a chore, anything that gives them an excuse to stay home is good news.
There’s no Senators up, and unfortunately NC Republicans executed a gerrymander last year that will flip three Democratic seats to the Rs (the incumbents didn’t even bother running). One other Democrat had his seat gerrymandered into a toss up.
I could be wrong about the impact on the Presidential race – particularly if it’s a razor’s edge – but the general rule in politics is shit rolls downhill. I.e. a scandal-plagued candidate higher up on the ballot can hurt those farther down, but scandal-plagued candidates lower on the ballot don’t impact those higher up. Because the vast majority of voters are driven by the top of the ticket.
Trump did call him Martin Luther King on steroids. I wonder if he was alluding to fits of anger and shrunken testicles.
He’s also likely to increase the urgency that democrats in the state feel regarding voting.
It’s a weird year here, for sure.
But among NC’s registered voters, a bit more than a third are registered as unaffiliated. Another third are registered Democrats and about 30% are registered Republicans. Those unaffiliated voters are going to make the difference. They tend to skew conservative, but as we’ve seen, it’s not unusual here for the governor to be a Democrat, the Lieutenant Governor to be Republican, and for the state to go for a Republican presidential candidate.
We also cannot forget about the state legislature’s ratfuckery regarding voting requirements and the gerrymanders they keep getting called into court about.
I’ve gotten more campaign literature than I’ve ever gotten before. We’ve even had people come to the house, which has never happened in the 24 years I’ve lived here. They don’t know how those unaffiliated voters are going to break this year, so they’re working hard to get them.
Latest news is that Robinson is down to three staffers: two spokesmen and a bodyguard. Allegedly they’re going to hire more, but who would attach themselves to that campaign now?
Robinson is toast. My big hope is that he’ll drag down Michelle “Obama in front of a firing squad on live television” Morrow, in terms of people deciding not to vote for the violently insane.
Polling suggests that the proposal to abandon federal funding is a bigger issue than, y’know, support for violent insurrection, which is profoundly depressing.
does he pay above minimum wage?
Pay? He’s asked for a few newly arrived interns from overseas, eager to learn new skills on-the-job, get room & board, and even develop their own personal brand.
If they do well they might qualify for golden handcuffs. But until then the iron ones will have to do.
Hopefully he’s paying the bodyguard well, anyway.
I was trying to figure out who might come after him at this point, but then thought about his fellow Republicans…
He didn’t want any help in finding out the truth. Just like O.J., he’ll find the bad guy himself! Brave!
If he came forward and acted repentant, could he pull it off anyway?
From the article:
Details of Robinson’s declination were shared with WRAL on the same day the candidate told reporters that he’s forming a team to help him refute the CNN report.
Y’know … IANAL, but you’d think that incontrovertible evidence that Robinson did NOT make any of the posts he’s alleged to have made – the kind of evidence these Top. Men. would surely have unearthed – would go a fairly long way toward helping him prevail in this kind of civil suit (or non-litigation refutation).
I wonder if any of the eight who recently jumped off the HMS Shitbag’s Campaign Staff mentioned that to him in parting.
Also, based on my current location, the magnetic declination is roughly 10*.
If you were wondering.
I doubt that Robinson was, however, lacking as he is in any semblance of a moral compass.
It seems Robinson has lost support:
Donald Trump and the Republican Party are ditching Mark Robinson, their scandal-plagued nominee in the North Carolina governor’s race.
Robinson has been battling to keep his head above water after claims that he called himself a “Black Nazi” and made other offensive comments on a pornographic website.
But it appears the national GOP hierarchy are prepared to let him drown. The Republican Governors Association said in a statement that they are pulling Robinson’s financial support.