The lack of dead Americans is entirely luck. You do know that planes get shot down and advisors get shot, right?
To be fair, the US did make headway amongst what was IS Iraq at that point. But this was only ever a temporary setback, and even the military acknowledged that Iraqis were flooding into IS at an enormous rate at the time (which, while not directly the US’s fault, was exacerbated by the US presence). Also, of course, the Iraqi people and Parliament wanted us out, now if not yesterday. Obama could have said “nuh-uh” but the consequences would have severe, including yet another recruiting boom for IS.
But I’m curious as to what amazing strategy Obama could have implemented that would have fixed everything. This oughta be good.
“FIxed”? No. But there’s no reason for the US to tolerate ISIS controlling territory. That’s a decision he made. We will fight ISIS, but failure is actually an option.
In hindsight, there MIGHT have been a sweet spot between the surge and the termination of the SOFA when the Obama administration could have had some leverage to insist on Maliki instituting some real substantive political reconciliation between Sunni and Shia.
I’m not prepared to speculate on what such leverage would have looked like, or how wide any window of opportunity was.
Yup. Plain dumb luck. Every day. Damn you, lucky Obama !
What would “not tolerating it” look like, in your view. Don’t just give us your usual “Obama is wrong so the opposite of what Obama did would be right” line - what specifically should Obama have done?
(yes, I know, Cracked cite. What can I say, I like my world news and geopolitical analyses with dick jokes and Batman references in. Dispute the message, not the messenger.)
Because I think he recognizes that there is no “success” in fighting ISIS. We fight them on the ground, we lose (even if ISIS loses also). We get out, maybe count it as a loss, but at least we didn’t get American soldiers killed for nothing.
I don’t know what that leverage would have looked like either - Maliki might have agreed to it but the Iraqi Parliament likely would not have, and there was already a view in 2008 that the US was too keen to “blackmail” Iraq into agreeing to US-imposed terms. They wanted us out; we’re only still there because the Iraqi army turned out to be such a shambles.
That’s why I want them out completely.
That’s not on the table because I think every mainstream DC politician understands that ISIS can’t be allowed to run rampant. The airstrikes are a good political compromise between just admitting failure and getting in too deep.
Why is the success of ISIS a US failure? If ISIS is a threat, the regional powers that would be the primary targets of ISIS would be motivated to take more aggressive action to do what is necessary (send in ground troops) to dislodge them. If Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey don’t see ISIS as an existential threat, why should we?
I do not subscribe to the “we must fight them there so we don’t have fight them here” nonsense. They can do both at the same time. We are better off focussing on threats to the homeland; the outcome of regional conflicts around the world do not constitute US failures.
They do once we’ve decided to intervene. We are at war with ISIS. That decision has already been made. Once at war, you achieve your objectives, or you do not. No backsies in war.
So once Dubya committed us, it’s Obama’s failure if Iraq isn’t all daisies and sunshine? Bullshit.
Remind me again of our objectives in Iraq and Afghanistan, while you’re coming up with that strategy Obama should have followed.
Actually, Obama committed us to fight ISIS, not GWB. OBama also expanded the war on ISIS to include Syria.
Good. Now tell us why ISIS exists.
ISIS started in Syria, so that’s on Assad. They invaded Iraq because we weren’t there anymore.
Yep, this is the right thread for that one.
Not so. The current leader of ISIS is from Iraq. So are most of his lieutenants. And they didn’t invade Iraq because most of them are from Iraq in the first place. They’re your former sight unseen death squads. Read the Cracked article I linked. Then come back.