There IS a show this week, isn’t there? 
I haven’t seen it in three weeks (two Wednesdays and a last minute ticket to “Wicked”)… so, um, catch me up while we do predictions.
I am so ticked, I won’t be seeing anymore Survivor episodes on the ol’ t.v. this season. The outdoor sand volleyball league I play in started this week and due to schedule conflicts the only night one of my teams could play was Thursdays. I didn’t think it would be a good idea to veto Thursday nights due to Survivor. I’m beginning to reconsider but it is too late now. 
So… lots and lots of descriptive essays summarizing tonight’s (and future) shows please!!
MeanJoe
I’ve seen one commercial in the course of my CBS viewing, and it looks like …
[spoiler]Rob is talking with Kathy and Lex, which must mean they merge at some point tonight. It also seems that Rob’s going back on a lot of his promises, so if he doesn’t win immunity, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go. If not, my money would be on either Lex or Alicia.
Also, it appears that there is double immunity up for grabs this time–though I don’t know if the winner gets to pick the other immune person, or if the second person to finish gets it. The first would be more interesting, but I’m betting on the second.[/spoiler]
The Chaperas have continued to decline. They’ve lost the last three immunities in a row. Lex has stepped forward as the leader of the tribe; orchestrating the exit of Colby and then Ethan. On the Mogo Mogos, Rob is in charge. There is some resentment against him but everyone seems to either be willing to let him lead or is afraid to openly challenge him. Rob and Amber have hooked up big time; they now spend most of their free time cuddling in the shadows.
Two weeks ago there was a recap episode. Missed it.
Last week, the show started off with a player swap. Everyone drew a buff out of a jar and the teams were re-divided into two five player tribes. Surprisingly there was almost no change; 5 out of 6 Mogo Mogos became Chaperas and all 4 Chaperas became Mogo Mogos. So the only changes were a swap of campsites (the Mogo Mogo camp was much better) and Amber being the one player to effectively switch tribes. Rob and Amber were both upset about being seperated; especially because Amber now seemed the most likely candidate to get voted off if the new Mogo Mogos lost.
The immunity challenge was a trivia contest about past players on the game. Rob hinted that he was going to throw the challenge if possible, but there was no opportunity. The new Mogo Mogos won but as they were leaving, Rob whispered to Lex that he would protect Lex after the merger if Lex protected Amber.
Lex decided to take him up on his offer. He got Shii Ann and Kathy to agree to vote Jerri off instead. Lex then told Jerri (as he had previously told Ethan) that she was going. Jerri surprisingly didn’t make much of an effort to save herself and was voted out.
Previews for this week’s episode have hinted that Rob makes some kind of deal with Alecia, breaks a deal with somebody, and there will be a dual immunity.
My guess is there’ll be a merger and Shii Ann’ll be voted out if she doesn’t get an immunity.
Based on the TV previews,
they’re all wearing blue buffs, so obviously they merge.
And yes, we see Rob with Kathy and Lex, so it looks like he’s going back on his promise about protecting one of them.
The Double Immunity looks interesting. I’m guessing the first two finishers get Immunity, although the idea that whoever wins Immunity picking the other Immunity-winner sounds interesting.
Maybe Rob wins one of the Immunities and gives it to Amber? Bleechh…
Counting the hours!
Oh, my post is purely speculation based on the TV ads, BTW, no actual spoilers.
But there’s a pretty obvious speculation in there if you’ve seen the ads.
Okay, here we go…
[SPOILER]Speculation is that tonight it’s going to come down to either Kathy or Shii-Ann. It will be a tragedy if Kathy is booted, and…less so if it’s the Shii Devil.
The word that there will be a double immunity has been confirmed by trailers for tonight’s show, as shown on the CBS website.
The Rawbfather has a few more weeks, but they’ve been building him up too high for him to take anything but a precipitous fall very, very soon. I’d imagine he’ll get his comeuppance and end up as the 4th or 5th member of the jury. Thanks to the editing bay, I just can’t see him making the final 4.[/SPOILER]
I’m confused. Why does Rob talking to Kathy and Lex mean that he is going back on his word? Is is what he is saying, and if so, what is it that he is saying?
From what I saw in the commercial, Lex is mad, Kathy’s crying, and Rob has the standard deer-in-headlights “I’m caught” look. The announcer confidently told us that Rob is breaking promises. However, the preview from last week made it seem that he’d gone back on his word with Alicia.
Whoa, hold the phone. New spoiler spec from a couple of reputable sources:
[SPOILER]Sad to say, part of the Kathy crying vibe seems to indicate the Mogo Mogos are about to be Pagonged. Most experts seem to agree that Lex will be the likeliest target tonight, IF IF IF he doesn’t win Immunity.
There is also apparently some exchange (evidenced by a trailer snippet) that indicates Rawb says something to the effect of, “You guys didn’t really **believe ** that, did ya?” He apparently says this to Lex or Kathy, in relation to the whole “save Amber” plea he made at the end of Ep.9.
There’s also an exchange that follows something along the lines of, “You wanna put our friendship on the line, I will.”
Ohh, Rob. You make Jonny Fairplay look like Mother Teresa, you backstabbing sonovabitch. :)[/SPOILER]
Rob’s had private one-on-one conversations with everyone in his tribe, I think, except Rupert, in which he’s basically said, “You and me, the Final Two, right? You watch my back and I’ll watch yours.”
I think he thinks everyone trusts him and likes him.
If anyone actually trusts him, they’re idiots.
I can see him winning a string of ICs, too, so once he loses an immunity, they’d do well to get rid of him, pronto.
Speculation Only: The TV preview, IMO, looks like Kathy’s gotten wind of plans to vote her out, or thinks they plan to vote her out, (after they’ve merged) and is upset. She’s crying, and she wants Lex to “fix” it for her, I assume. Lex wants Kathy to stick around, so he’s calling in the favor Rob owes him by not voting Amber out last week. Rob is probably saying, “Hey, I’ll do what I can, but I’m not promising anything.” Lex is pissed, probably saying, “Hey, pal, you owe me. We were going to vote out your little girlfriend and we didn’t. You need to do what I say this time.”
The Chaperas have a majority advantage, (going to go for a “Pagonging” - picking off the Mogos one at a time) so unless Rob can convince Amber to vote with the Mogos, and he does, too, Kathy will be out.
Lex has always been one of the smarter players, despite the fact that he insists on telling people before he votes them off. But saving Amber and booting Jerri las week was the dumbest, dumbest, dumbest thing to do. He had Jerri doing whatever he wanted; on the other hand, there is no way Rob’s going to honor their agreement very long.
Oh wow, that stinks, especially since Kathy is my chickie I’m rooting for now. But she really was stupid in voting off Jerri rather than Amber last week. Ugh.
I disagree that Lex did the wrong thing–he chose the less painful of the two options. If they got rid of Amber, Lex would be #1 on Rob’s hit list, and since Rob’s team is (by all appearances) incredibly tight and dominant in challenges, Lex couldn’t assume he could find a swing vote to counter the 5-4 disadvantage his team would still have.
Getting rid of Jerri bought him time. In the (presumed) imminent merge, he knows he has Shi Ann & Kathy as buffers between him and elimination. That’s 9 more days (at least) before he’d be next on the block. By then, new alliances would be possible. Lex did the right thing.
The fact that Kathy & Shi Ann thought they could somehow benefit from an offer Rob never made to them is what’s more inexplicable.
Why do you assume Lex would be 3rd in line? I’d put him at the top of the list if I were Rob et al.
I disagree. Once the tribes merge and the old Chapera gang starts Pagong-ing the old Mogo Mogo, Lex will be the biggest threat and the first to go. Then Kathy, then Shi-Ann. If Rob honors his agreement and lets Lex stay around, then he loses Kathy and Shi-Ann – and then what? He’s bought six days but he’s got no allies left.
He would have been better off getting rid of Amber and going into the merge 5-4. All he would have needed at that point would be to convince Rupert to join him and his harem in getting rid of Rob, which would have been an easy sell (Rupe doesn’t want any other fishermen around).
I think Rob will honor the deal, to a certain (limited) extent, and that is what Lex is banking on. Saving Amber is Lex’s way to prove to Rob that he can be trusted. I think, with his multiple alliances, Rob knows he’ll be going back on his word soon enough anyway–he might as well exploit Lex’s desperation to his advantage as long as he can (especially since Lex hasn’t proven himself much of an immunity threat the way, say, Rupert might).
Some of Rob’s team (probably Rupert & maybe Jenna) will begin creating overtures to oust Rob soon–but they can’t do it without more people. Lex will help shore up Big Tom’s support, and Alicia IMHO is unlikely to defect this quickly. That leaves R&J with only S&K–not enough. Rob, in the short term, needs Lex, who is so cravenly desperate to stay that you know he’ll put himself out there out of self-preservation. That’s why he’d be a fool to get rid of him before Shi Ann & Kathy (in that order), who can only continue to stir up trouble the longer they’re there.
A week is a lifetime in Survivor. That will give him plenty of time to jockey for better position. And if he votes along with the Kathy & Shi Ann ouster, that gives him plenty of allies, since he’ll be “playing ball”. And like I said earlier, he’s not as great a physical threat as Rupert, who I’m guessing (or maybe just hoping) doesn’t have long either.
But remember, Rob’s team is seen as super-tight. They’re kicking ass regularly and showing numerous signs of unity and cohesion (from the body painting to the evidence of the organized camp they left behind). Even Kathy’s seen it in person–there were no signs of internal conflict when she went on the reward with them. For Lex to assume he can swing one more over to his side (the weaker, perennially losing side) would’ve been a much bigger risk. He doesn’t know what we do–in fact, the biggest impression he would’ve gotten from Rupert’s PI performance is that he has/had immense team loyalty. For Lex, team loyalty is history, and he’s acting accordingly–it’s every man for himself, and this was Lex’s best bet (though still quite a risk, admittedly)
My speculation, based on the previews:
[spoiler]Informing the victim is not Rob’s MO, he just stabs people in the back (and enjoys the heck out of it). I don’t think Lex or Kathy will get voted out, but Rob will save them and sacrifice Shii Ann. For this week, anyway.
The old Chapera tribe is tight, so I think they’ll pick off the Mogo-Mogo’s one by one. Lex may have bought himself a few days by saving Rob’s girlfriend, but unless he can turn Rupert and Tom and maybe some others his way, he might be leaving right after Shii Ann and Kathy.[/spoiler]
nothing to say, just subscribing.