Survivor: Palau - 3/30/05

Okay, this is too early, but I was thinking Survivor would still be Wednesday ('cause that basketball nonsense is still going on) and I got to pondering…

You know, it’s just barely possible that Ulong will win the IC next episode, if they follow the ‘usual’ pattern of one RC and then a IC.

Ulong is down to three members, but all three are strong and healthy and so frustrated that I’m sure they’re going all out.

Koror, however, still has almost its full allotment of members, from strong down to relatatively weak.
Last episode, Korror used Tom, Gregg, Coby, and Caryn on the RC, forcing them to use Ian, Janu, Jennifer, and Katie for the IC. We haven’t spent all that much time with the K tribe, but I think it’s clear that the second foursome is much weaker than the first.

So now we come to this week’s RC. Won’t Koror be forced to select three out of Tom/Gregg/Coby/Caryn to play? At best, later on that will leave them having to pick the strongest threesome out of Tom/Ian/Janu/Jennifer/Katie to do the IC.

My guess is that Bobby/Ibrahem/Stephanie are a stronger team than Tom/Ian/whoever, and Ulong FINALLY wins an IC. Yes? No?

Um, according to my listings it’s on tomorrow, Thursday, 3/31. Good thing, too, because if it were on against a new Lost, it wouldn’t stand a chance with me.

Starving, to answer your questions … according to the Insider videos last week, Koror realized just a smidge too late that it was not incredibly bright, strategy-wise, to use Gregg, Coby, and Tom in the RC and leave only Ian and the skinnies for the IC. IMO, they got shit lucky on the IC last time (not that I am complaining). Hopefully they are smart enough to realize that they can split their tribe into two equally strong units: say, Gregg/Coby/Jen/Janu on Koror “A” and Tom/Ian/Caryn/Katie on Koror “B.”

I got a little choked up when Ulong was sitting on the beach and the plane went by and they realized they didn’t win the reward challenge. I don’t usually feel sorry for them, but even I couldn’t help but feel pity for them.

Ho. Lee. Crap! That, my friends, is the kind of stank that you can never wash away. No one on that tribe will ever, EVER, get to run for public office, because they will always and forever be associated with the worst tribe in Survivor history. Good Lord.

Exactly what is going on over there, anyway? What is the thinking process required to come up with a resolution where the ONE PERSON who didn’t actively cause the tribe to fail (because he wasn’t the caller, and he didn’t argue with the caller) is the one voted out?

Oh, wait. That’s Ulong logic.

On a happier note: Ian is foine. I like a man with a little dirt under his fingernails. Tom rocks, of course, but he is becoming a little too “Stepford” for me. Crunches? Gaah. I like Ian’s dorky dancing. That said, I would still be 100% satisified if Tom won the whole thing instead of my Beloved Nerdy Dolphin Boy. Well, OK, maybe only 95% satisifed, but still.

Um, is it just me, or

why in the hell didn’t Steph, BJ and Ib just vote for each other? That would create a 3-way unbreakable tie and then who knows what would happen next? Sad to see Ib go but happier to see Steph stay.

My guess is, fear of the Dread PROD (Purple Rock O’ Doom).

I felt really bad for the Ulongs, too. But it was still really funny when Gregg is interviewing and trying to imagine how beat down the Ulongs must feel and then… cut to Bobby Jon, Steph, and Ib sitting quietly on the beach, heads hanging in dejection.

I liked all three of the remaining Ulongs, but I still did a happy dance when the last vote was read. Stephanie rocks, and I’m so glad she’ll be around for at least a few more days.

So, do we think there will be a merge next week? There are ten Survivors left–the traditional merge number. But Mark Burnett likes playing with our heads, so who knows?

I think that this Survivor is the worse! There is no way that if they do merge the other tribe with just pick off the remaining, it Numbers people and Ulong doesn’t have them.

I know it Probst’s job to be a prick, but it irritates me anyway…"How do you feel that…blah blah blah…"grrrrrrrrr

I kind of get the feeling they’re going to let Ulong whither away and die and then have Koror battle it out amongst themselves (Jeff made the comment “there’s not going to be a merge” way back when - foreshadowing?) I’m not sure how that would work, but I think Steph could hold her own as A Tribe of One (band name?) if it came down to it.

It would have been a crying shame had the two Alabama waiters voted Steph off tonight. She has more balls than Bobby Jon and Ibrahaim put together.

Well, so much for my “the Mighty Ducks come from behind” crap. :frowning:
The fate of the Ulongs has developed a fatal fascination, I fear. I bet the producers don’t WANT a merge, just to prolong their suffering.

Though…what will they do if U continues as a tribe and loses AGAIN? The rules are clear, you can’t vote for yourself. Would they come up with some endurance test to settle it? Or go right for the purple rock?

And then there’d be One Little Indian, all alone on hir island. Well, except for a ten man camera crew.

In a weird kind of way, Stephenie and Bobby John may be in a decent position right now.

First off, assume there will be a merge before the next immunity challenge. It’s no longer tribe vs tribe; it’s every player for themselves in tribe Korlong. Now consider that the two former Ulongs are not going to be perceived as an immediate threat by the former Korors. With a little nudge, they can make the Korors start fighting each other and break down the tribal loyalty.

And as individual players, Bobby John and especially Stephenie have been playing great. While Ulong as a whole has been a disaster, these two have essentially made it to the final two. The Korors have been coasting on the string of victories and Stephenie and Bobby John have been learning how to play the real game of not getting voted out.

I and others have said in the past that it would be neat to not have a merge. I still think so. It’s fascinating. And I like the idea of having one person on the beach. S/he might go nuts. If it comes to that, I hope Steph is the one who stays.

As Little Nemo says, if there is a merge they might last a little while. Coby is certainly fed up with the women.

I remarked to supervenusfreak tonight that it’s very rare that you see end-game strategizing when they’re still in two separate tribes. Saw it tonight, though…

Was the reduction in tribe size the “big surprise” supposedly refered to in last week’s promos? Or was that the shark?

Is Koror the best fed and sheltered team ever? Why did they sit out Dolphin Boy in two consecutive challenges while leaving poor exhausted Janu in?

I was very surprised that Bobby Jon voted against Ib. I thought Steph was a goner.

The obvious answer is that you can’t trust people to do what they say they’ll do. I was sooooooooooooo glad to see Stef still in the running, even though she’ll probably get voted off as soon as the merge happens.

That’s what my boyfriend was saying, that they should just do that and see what happens. My suggestion was vote off Jeff Probst. Can they do that? :smiley:

“Bobby Jon, I think you’re WORSE off now than you were in the beginning!”

He didn’t say it just once. Oh, no. He had to say it twice! My husband remarked that Jeff is becoming the new Alex Trebek – a little too pleased with himself. “Soory. That would be the Crimean War.”

Re a merge: Probst did say that there was no merge, but he didn’t say there wouldn’t be a tribe shake-up. They could always pick new buffs and come out as two evenly divided teams…That would be kinda fun because Koror would have to compete against itself for a change.

Personally, I thought “ULONG” looked more impressive from the air than “Got Food?” Though why those doofuses didn’t move their sign out another ten or twelve feet and beyond the tree line is a mystery to me. Surely they know when high tide is by now.

This would make sense, except:
[li]You can’t assume there will be a merge – there is no rule that says there has to be, and the One Big Rule That Shall Never Be Violated In The Game Of Survivor already has (i.e., “No player shalt not sitteth out an Immunity Challenge immediately after a Reward Challenge”)[/li][li]You can’t assume that Koror won’t view the Ulongs as threats – they clearly have a Grand Master Plan (unlike Ulong) and even the minority alliance at Koror can see that it would behoove them to vote with the majority and get rid of the Ulongs first, so that they can stick around longer[/li][li]Koror tribal loyalty looks pretty tight, especially after Tom caught the shark last night – the self-proclaimed “swing voters,” Gregg and Jenn, certainly look like they’re going to ride Tom’s coattails for as long as they possibly can (I saw the spark of admiration [and maybe even lurve] that Gregg had when he was talking about Tom post-kill last night)[/li][/ol]
Plus, I almost think you’re giving Ulong too much credit. I like Steph and Bobby Jon – and I liked Ibe and Angie, too – but they have some kind of blinders on. For the last three episodes or so, they’ve come back from TC saying, “Blah blah blah after the Merge yadda yadda.” I seriously don’t think they’ve even considered the possibility that there won’t be a merge, and I think TPTB know it. So they’re going to let Ulong keeping playing for a merge that won’t come … which is exactly what they have done. I seriously don’t think there will be a merge, or even a tribal shaekup. I think that Burnett is such a bitch that he’s going to let Ulong Pagong itself.