Agreed. Last year I started a thread called I don’t think Hillary can win. Today, I think she can win. Probably. The Senate will break close to even. The Republicans will keep the House.
Not really that bad. There are maybe four states that the Republicans have a good shot at, and the Democrats might have a good shot at Nevada. Many of the states are solidly Democratic; it’s just the way the division into thirds has worked out.
Mind you, off-year voter turnout could be a problem, but three years out, I’m not too worried.
This is always a good idea.
Clinton will win unless she herself destroys her own campaign.
The Senate numbers look good for the Democrats this year if turnout is even halfway decent.
The House? Can’t see it happening. You’d need a REALLY strong Democratic turnout in marginal districts to get that to happen; if it does happen it’ll be down to anti-Trump voters rather than pro-Clinton ones.
Pretty much this. It would take something extraordinary for the Dems to take the House in the next election cycle. And to sweep into power? The OP is dreaming. Perhaps if Hillary presides over something similar to what happened in her husbands time in office wrt the economy…
…what? Didn’t her husband’s time in office precede GOP majorities in both houses?
No, he has people to do that for him.
But what has he done for us lately. 
Yes, like last time, the Democrats should’ve changed the filibuster rules, and then they later regretted not doing it.
The Republicans should’ve changed the filibuster rules, as well, but they haven’t had a chance to regret it, yet.
I think many people underestimate the potential impact of gerrymandering. Take Ohio, for example. The voting indices by district, in order from pro-Republican (+) to pro-Democrat (-) are: +14, +9, +9, +8, +8, +6, +6, +5, +5, +5, +3, +2, -12, -14, -15, -30. The baseline is 12 R and 4 D in the House, if the presidential race has no down-ticket impact. If there’s a 3.5-point effect in favor of the Democrats, it’ll go 10 R, 6 D. A 5.5-point effect, results in 7 R, 9 D. And 6.5 goes to 5 R, 11 D. In contrast, even a 10-point shift in favor of the Republicans does not result in the Democrats losing any seats.
Gerrymandering really tilts the results non-linearly.
Of course, what are the odds of a 5 or 6 point shift in favor of the Democrats? I’m not sure, but when something like 30% of the Republicans are not happy with their nominee, it wouldn’t take “something extraordinary”. More like “against the odds, but possible”. I’ll be very interested in Nate Silver’s analyses.
It depends on what you mean by probably. If you look at 538’s projections here, you can turn PA red just by goosing the non-college white vote a bit in the GOP direction. But VA stays blue in that scenario if you goose the black turnout just a bit without even changing black vote share.
I think it is somewhat easy to imagine circumstances in which Trump wins Ohio and Pennsylvania running against free trade and on his white identity platform, but Hillary wins Virginia and North Carolina because of both demographic trends and opposition to Trump among people of color.
What is true is that Hillary’s path is much more narrow in the scenarios in which Trump wins PA.
I’m bumping this to repeat my claim. I’m seeing an epic disaster for the Republican Party in December. Something like the Biblical flood, or one of those plagues – pick your favorite. Every day The Donald seems to say more shit that reinforces the idea that no sane person can vote for him.
And no sane person can vote for someone that stands with him.
You heard if here fir … ok, if not first, then early!
I’m sure they won’t get any votes in December.
If runoff elections are needed in Louisiana, they would be held on December 10th. So there.
i think once some more national polls come out, given how people are waiting to see how the terrorist attack affects the race, then maybe we can start making such predictions, at least about the POTUSy and Senate. House, I don’t think that’s moving anytime soon.
I have active bets with folks about the results. I am predicting a landslide for Clinton - north of 10% in the popular vote.
No shit. I’ll start sending Rush tweets with the hashtag #SeeIToldYouSo
Trouble is, if you live by the gerrymander, you die by it too. When you give the other guy 5 seats at 80-20 so you can have 20 at 52-48 means that you can lose it all if your side loses a few percent.
Clinton has grown her lead over Trump in the latest polling.
I’m guessing this is reflecting Trump’s “biased judge” controversy but not any bounce he may (God help us) have picked up after Orlando. It’ll be interesting to see what next week’s polls have to say.
He may get an Orlando bounce, but I hardly think it is guaranteed. He’s back to saying stupid stuff, even if he is reading it off a Teleprompter. Apparently he writes his own speeches.
You do realize though with great power comes great responsibility.
If the economy tanks their will only be democrats to blame. You better hope the whole country doesnt turn into Detroit (which has had all dem mayors in 50 years).
So, you’re buying into my predictions? 
Of course we realize that. The idea is to put policies in place that strengthen the economy. If that happens, of course, it would mean the Democrats would get the credit, but (get this) that’s not the reason why we’re doing it.