A thread to discuss Nicole and whatever it does to wherever it does it.
Here in the Greater Miami Metroblob we’re seeing the latest news on Tues morning as favorable to us. The latest jog is a bit farther north. We’re quite likely to “enjoy” tropical storm-force winds, and our beaches are going to take some surf damage and that’s about it. Interestingly, it was windier and the surf was much higher on Sunday than it is right now.
The storm’s center’s landfall is currently predicted for around 1am on Thu a bit south of Cape Canaveral. So the farther south one is in the Metroblob, the more benign the conditions. But beachfront FL is pretty much solid houses and condos from Canaveral south to the Keys, so wherever it gets bad, there will be people & structures in harm’s way.
Conveniently, conditions on Tue will be benign everywhere in the US so Nicole should have zero impact on Election Day.
For the whole of the US Southeast, it appears the big threat is lots of rain & therefore flooding over a widespread area, but not much in the way of damaging winds. Unless it rapidly intensifies.
Speaking to me personally, I’m going to work later this morning and am expected to fly back into Miami late Wed afternoon, then drive home. At just about the time of arrival for the tropical storm force winds. As long as the storm doesn’t speed up, turn left, or intensify unexpectedly (or worse yet all three) I’ll be fine.
Last night at about 7pm I filled my car and the local gas stations did not yet have lines, but they were unusually crowded. Ominously, pumping was real slow which may be a sign of low fuel levels in their tanks. One big gas station near me had 4 police cars sitting in the lot, the cops all just yakking nonchalantly. Presumably they were there to begin to manage traffic if/when the expected line of last minute panic buyers appeared.
We had some minor damage from Ian. A neighbor’s tree fell and damaged a small section of fence. We’ve been working on it sporadically and just finished it up on Sunday. So that’s annoying, but I guess I can’t complain…YET. I hope we get off light again.
Over here in west central Broward. I saw some people stocking up at Publix last night.
From what I read in the NHC forecast discussion, there’s a strong chance that Nicole will be enough north of us to be out of the sustained tropical storm field. But that’s assuming a perfect forecast with no wobbles or unexpected size changes. The last I saw, sustained TS winds were forecast to be roughly 100 miles SE/SW of the center, and FLL is roughly 150 miles south of the projected landfall. I live just of 595, so that’s a reasonable approximation for my distance as well.
Of course, there could easily be wobbles or other changes. And gusts and squall lines can still cause damage, so this isn’t likely to be just a summer rainstorm.
I was out on a cruise last week and started half-watching the system. I noted to myself how glad I am that I have impact windows and just upgraded to a propane generator, with plenty of propane on hand already. Between that and my normal emergency supplies, I had almost no prep to do, and thus no decisions to make.
Let’s hope it’s an easy storm for us, and those further north who will get more of the real stuff!
#2 son got married Saturday, they are supposed to honeymoon in Jamaica starting Thursday. Flying out of Orlando airport, which is apparently going to be closed. So far, they are just being delayed one day.
The NHC’s latest 4pm forecast on Tue wobbles the storm’s landfall a smidgen to the south and bumps the likelihood of it being a hurricane (admittedly a low-end hurricane) at landfall.
The TS-strength wind field is ginormous. And is mostly east of = behind the storm. IOW, a lot of the news-noise is about when and where the eye’s landfall will be / is / was, but the excitement will last many hours after whenever that happens and will extend far from wherever it happens.
The good news is we won’t have insane storm surge like with Ian and although large, the windfield is not that severe. The bad news is that the landfall will be up in the more “rednecky - we don’t need no steenkin hurricane resistant building codes1!!1!” section of the coast. Whole lotta mobile homes may take their first (and last) flying lesson.
I’m in Sacramento, and I can assure you that the “drivers” here have forgotten all of what little they ever knew about driving in wet conditions. I grew up on the Oregon coast, so learned to drive in wet weather. Not that hard, really. Slow down, use wipers, and TURN ON YOUR DAMN LIGHTS!!!
That phenomenon is one of the best arguments for even relatively bad AI driving. As near as I can figure, if the average driver isn’t exposed to a challenging driving condition every 2-3 weeks, they completely forget anything they know about how to deal with it.
This is based on growing up in Minnesota (where the first snow of the year is always exciting but then people are generally fine)and current living in Missouri, where it snows/ices at wide intervals and no one remembers anything about driving in it from one storm to the next. But quite some time back (10-15 years?) we had an actual winter (cold, one big snow to cover everything, then little storms often enough the keep the snow pack alive) and, just like in MN, people had it mostly figured out.
Looking at the storm track this morning, it’s further west, possibly heading into the Gulf. That’s good news for me and mine, but if the storm gets over the warm water it’ll strengthen.
The last few tracks have trended a decent amount south. I’m now roughly 70 miles south of the projected landfall, and the tropical storm force windfield is forecast to be over 80 miles in my direction. Still, I expect to be mostly on the edges of the impacts. I work from home and have no pressing need to go anywhere, so I’ll just be watching the water in the little lake off the backyard, hoping not to be in one of the scattered damage areas.
There are already little rain bands going through. I’ve probably seen a half dozen spurts of rain over the last two hours, and it’s very overcast. I expect a lot more rain later in the day.
LSLGuy, I hope you have a smooth flight this afternoon, and an easy trip back home from there!
Don’t forget the cone only describes where the center is predicted to be about 2/3rds of the time. So 1/3rd of the time the center will be outside the cone when it goes by your house. Now that miss could be either left or right of the cone, so if you’re on the e.g. right side of the cone, 1 time in 6 the storm will be outside the cone and over your place, or even on the other side of your place from what you expect.
Also, the significant winds extend about 50 miles away from the center, wherever it happens to be.
Bottom line: you’re gonna be in it. Me too. Just not too bad since the storm itself is not too bad.
“Storm season” is technically only a technical concept, so berating a storm for being outside it, when it’s actual within it, is technically … oh, whatever!
At least in Miami-Dade, Broward, and southern Palm Beach counties Nicole has proven to be a non-event.
When I flew into MIA around 6pm Wed, it was a … rainy day. The winds were squirrelly, but gusting no more than 20 or 25 knots. There was some turbulence during descent, but nothing unusual for a rainy day.
My ~50 mile drive northward to home was better than normal for that time of day. About half the normal late rush hour traffic and although it drizzled or rained the whole way, it never rained crazy hard. And folks seemed to be driving if not quite carefully, at least sensibly for once. Not the usual Miami cocaine-fueled crazy.
Now, well pre-dawn on Thu I’m about to make the same drive the other way & fly off again. Our local trees are swaying gently, the streets are dry, and all is well.
P.S. Nicole, you do have a pretty name; I’m glad it won’t be retired. Now go rain on somebody else’s parade for a few days. But no more than that; we don’ need no steenkin’ flooding!
Here on the Space Coast it was simply a blustery night, not too much worse than a regular old storm.
My biggest fear remains what my biggest fear was before the storm hit: the total amount of rainfall in the upper St Johns river basin. The river at Sanford is still at an above average level from the previous hurricane, and if Nicole lingers around and drops a lot more, Sanford could be flooded. But it looks like even the rain has been below predictions – so far, that is.
