The quintessential example of dummymandering in the US House is the Arkansas map in the 2010s, which was drawn by Democrats and promptly elected four Republicans. For the entire decade. (Arkansas was moving far enough to the right that it maybe would have happened no matter what, but legislative Democrats were totally delusional with that map. They ended up drawing a perfect Republican gerrymander.)
IMO it’s not quite dummymandering if there’s simply a wave big enough to overtop a map. Trading seats in the minority for a bigger chance of getting a majority is the rational choice for a party to make if it’s looking at the situation with clear eyes.
I actually kinda fear that if Democrats win too many seats on some of the new Republican maps, it’ll take the wind out of the sails for redistricting efforts in the remaining blue states where that’s possible. We Democrats tend to love moral victories a little too much, so something that gets seen as righteous comeuppance in 2026 could easily become complacency about 2028 and 2030.
Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington are all holding contests. A number of Democratic primaries are pitting congressional incumbents against progressive challengers.
Redistricting efforts will also influence the races. Missouri Republicans redrew their map to squeeze Democrats, while Virginia moved its primary from June to August for a Democratic redistricting push that courts ultimately threw out.
Turns out that when you are a try-hard pick-me boy to your 20-something staffers, and you’re a grandpa, it’s a bad look.
If you want some deeply pitiful details, like how he texted one of these women that he would miss votes in order to help her decorate her Christmas tree, or sent one of them 30 different kinds of ice cream to cheer her up, I got your pitiful details right here.
I think he announced his withdrawal at like 3:26 am, so we don’t yet know who the GOP will run instead. The Democrat, Jamie Ager, is part of a local artisanal meat farm family with local political clout, and stands a pretty good chance. This upends the race.
I suspect the last sentence of this paragraph basically sums this race up, and I don’t think it’s quite as fantastic or as surprising as you think.
McDonald Rivet is among the more than a dozen Democratic incumbents seeking reelection in a district Trump won in 2024. But a GOP strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly, characterized her as a “powerhouse.” The strategist added that Hassan had “clear flaws as a candidate” and the “GOP base was reluctant to support a dude named Amir Hassan.”
Incumbent Wesley Bell (D-MO 1st) beat challenger and former representative Cori Bush in the Democratic primary. Missouri’s 1st District encompasses St. Louis and is considered a safe Democratic district, meaning Wesley Bell will almost certainly be reelected in November.
The race to replace Eric Swalwell is turning ugly. There have been a number of mailings, recently, of mud-slinging hit pieces against Aisha Wahab, the front-runner. It looks like much of the money is coming from AIPAC. Wahab is an Afghan-American immigrant. When asked about Gaza, she talks of the horrors of war in general. Her opponent does not sound completely supportive of Israel but probably more sympathetic.
The money is against Wahab but money alone does not always buy California elections.
(note that using “she” here gets a little confusing as both are women)
Melissa Hernandez looks okay. Two Members of Congress who endorse her are pretty solid- Lofgren and Liccardo.
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Her big issue is Immigration-
ICE has become a symbol of an immigration system that’s broken and out of control, and it needs fundamental reform. Melissa believes we can secure our communities without tearing families apart. ICE is deporting immigrants who are contributing members of our communities, many of whom are already working their way through the legal immigration process in good faith.
Melissa knows this fight personally: as the daughter of a Mexican immigrant, it took her own father years to become a U.S. citizen. That’s why she’s fighting for real immigration reform, so that earning citizenship isn’t a process that takes years, costs a fortune, and keeps families in limbo. Melissa supports a real pathway to citizenship for DREAMers and undocumented community members who are already contributing to our economy and our neighborhoods.
At the same time, Melissa supports smart border security and regional cooperation to address the root causes driving migration, not political stunts that put families in danger.
Hernandez does not mention Israel or Gaza at all here.
So as to not confuse others, there was an election, but Wahab and Hernandez have a run-off. No matter who wins, it will be D, I think.
Wahab looks okay also. She did go ahead and say
Fellow Democratic candidates Aisha Wahab, Matt Ortega, and Carin Elam all raised their hands, indicating they believe Israel’s actions amount to genocide. Hernández did not.
Instead, she offered a nuanced response, affirming Israel’s right to defend itself following the October 2023 attacks while also criticizing the scale of destruction in Gaza.
“I want to add a little bit to this because I think it’s important, besides a yes or no, and answer, as a democracy Israel had the right to defend itself and after the terrorist attacks in October a few years ago and the right to secure the release of hostages,” she said.
“But, however, the destruction into Gaza has gone too far and the people are paying the costs and so are the civilians.”
I do not think that Hernández sounds like an unqualified supporter for Israel.'s actions Wahab sounds like she leans more pro-Palestine, but neither sounds extreme on the issue.
I do not like the idea of those mailings but I have read two “news” articles who seem to attack Hernandez just because AIPAC is spending money on her campaign.
“AIPAC is once again trying to sneak under the radar and buy a Democratic primary,” said Evan Brown, executive director of the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC. “These millions of dollars in deceptive smears come from a pro-Netanyahu, pro-war super PAC funded by MAGA Republican donors, targeting a state senator endorsed by the California Democratic Party and labor unions across California’s 14th District.”
Note- both Candidates look okay to me. Not a special fan of either, since I have not been following this much.
I’m all for demonizing AIPAC - they’re functionally a MAGA-aligned organization. They’ve made the decision, over and over again, that attempting to subvert American democracy is okay, as long as one is supportive of this particular Israeli government.
They do both look okay.
Wahab has better experience. She has been in the state assembly for several terms. Congress is a logical step up. Hernandez was mayor of a decent sized bedroom community suburb of San Francisco. Nothing wrong with that but the city manager actually runs things. The mayor works part time.
As a voter in this election, the smear tactics annoy me. If you try to trick me, you do not get my vote.
Yes, they are both Democrats. California instituted the jungle primary system so that such things would be possible. When the parties had separate primaries, there would be a Republican candidate who didn’t stand a chance and a Democrat who did not need to actually run to get elected. It’s pretty new though the politicians are still looking for angles.
I totally agree. But to me it looks like Hernandez has nothing to do with them, they are from a PAC. Maybe I am wrong. And of course others are smearing Hernandez just due to AIPAC. And is she taking money directly from them or are they spending it on her campaign as a PAC or SuperPAC? Which is - sadly- legal.
Super Pacs are pouring money into the race, dropping more than $5m in recent weeks and supporting pro-Hernandez ads and Wahab attack ads, Politico reported on Thursday. The spending includes $1.2m from United Democracy Project, which is backed by Aipac, and $2.1m from Bold America Pac, which has received significant financial backing from the United Democracy Project, according to the outlet.
That seems to tell me the PACs are doing the negative campaigning- and it is more than AIPAC.
If this were to ever happen, I would look for pigs with wings and shivering bats.
Imagine the splash if Hernandez were to make a public statement that the claims are highly misleading and were made without her consent. She has too much respect for the voters intelligence to accept such help. Then she continues with a simple description of the bill that Wahab did vote for. Then she discusses how democracy is supposed to involve people with diverse opinions but mutual respect working together to find solutions.
A show of idealism like that might just win my vote.
Could this be irony also? 