At the moment, it appears that any candidate who emerges as the eventual Democratic nominee in 2020 will be favored to defeat Trump.
Assuming that a (D) does indeed win the White House next November, who would stand the best odds of reelection in 2024?
Age would work hard against Bernie and Biden; Bernie has already had a heart attack and Biden may be slipping into slow dementia like Reagan, with the symptoms just not quite showing yet (he’s always had gaffes but they may worsen.) Bernie would be in his 80s and would have to sell the American populace on the idea of letting him preside all the way til age 86, a tough pitch. Warren is “only” 70, and will be 74-75 by the time she is facing reelection.
Age isn’t a factor for younger Democrats like Harris, Buttigieg, or, really, just about anyone else, but they are all trailing far behind now and would need to mount the political comeback of their lifetime to take the (D) nomination by this point.
There’s also a good chance the economy will go into recession in 2021, which could allow a Republican opposition to blame it on the incumbent (D) president and use it as a way to recapture the presidency in 2024.
One handicap for Biden is that he is already considered too centrist by many Democrats and that the nation is likely to only move further to the left by 2024. Sure, Democrats would rally around him for reelection by virtue of him being the incumbent president, but his centrism may dampen enthusiasm among the further-left Millennial wing of the party.
Biden & Sanders will both be incredibly old and Warren has the best chance of nomination of the rest. In fact actually better than Bernie and she’s pulled even to Biden. So for 2024 Warren would have the best chance of re-election as she can actually be elected and not be in her 80s.
All three of those named seem too old to me for a second term, so any other Democrat in the running (if elected in 2020) would have the best shot at re-election. Kamala Harris, for example, but the (probably insurmountable) hurdle for her is to get elected in the first place.
The challenge for the next president, assuming it’s a Democrat, will be outmaneuvering McConnell. They need to enter office ready for his brilliant strategies. He prioritizes party over country.
Warren would be my pick, as I think she’s the most politically savvy of the three (note: not the most charismatic, that’s Biden). But I’d hope she’d conference heavily with Pelosi, because Pelosi’s got the chops in the party right now.
It really depends on what they have to deal with in Congress. Biden is billing himself as, well, normal. Even with a McConnell-controlled Senate, he can probably manage to live up to that. Come 2024, he can say “I told you I would be normal, I was, let me be normal for another four years”.
Warren or Sanders, though, are pushing for big changes. If they have a cooperative Congress, to enable them to deliver those changes (to be implemented at least a year before the election, so people can see that they work), then they’d have a much easier re-election than Normal Biden. But if they don’t, then they won’t be able to accomplish much of those sweeping agendas, and won’t have anything to show voters.
How long did it take for Obamacare to be perceived as a success? I don’t think the most progressive proposals will become law soon, but if they did I’m afraid that disruption would be the dominant impression they’d make for the first year or two.
Biden and Sanders will be well into their 80’s by 2024. Warren will inspire so many lies from the right-wing that millions will be shouting “Lock her up!” Booker, Bullock, Inslee, Hickenlooper would all give me more confidence. Regardless of candidate, re-election may be difficult if, as seems not unlikely, the economy and geopolitical situation deteriorate during the early 2020’s. Trump’s mistakes in the 2010’s may cause the problems in the 2020’s, but the public will blame them on the incumbent.
So much depends on whether the Dems (a) can win the Senate next November, and (b) ditch the filibuster if they do.
If those two things happen, then the Dems can pass a bunch of legislation that make a quick difference in the lives of ordinary Americans, like raising the minimum wage substantially, empowering unions, and reducing the burden of college debt. That’ll minimize the inevitable midterm losses in 2022, and set the President up for easy re-election in 2024.
If the Dems go 0-for-2 or 1-for-2 there, then 2022 will be an electoral disaster, and keeping the Presidency in 2024 will just be a way of keeping the vandals from taking over again entirely.
I keep being reminded by people that the President has no say in whether the Senate does something about the filibuster, and they’re technically correct. But here’s the deal: without a President pressing them to get rid of the filibuster, it’s a near-certainty that they won’t. With a President pressing them on this, there’s at least a decent chance they’ll respond to the pressure and kill or at least weaken the filibuster to the point where they can actually pass legislation no matter what Mitch & Co. do.
This is why it’s important to nominate a candidate who’s for killing the filibuster. So far, the only ones I know of have been Warren, Harris, and Inslee, and Inslee’s already folded.
So if you want the Dems to hold more than just the Presidency come 2025, Warren and Harris are your choices.
Biden is only going to win a first term on the Obama legacy and trump being an idiot. He will be older for his second term and will have to stand on his own record which seems to be mostly repealing what trump has done. If he’s smart he wouldn’t even run for a second term and allow his vp or another anointed one to carry the ball forward.
Bernie and Warren are both insane and a large part of the middle of the country is going to hold their noise and vote for them over trump. Once the threat of trump is gone I expect them to get killed at midterms and booted out immeaditly as long as the Republicans run someone who can keep their drool in their mouth.
Of course, I really hate this years crop of Dems and if they weren’t running against trump I wouldn’t vote for 90% who made the october debate and I’ve generally stopped following the primaries because all its making me do is want to vote 3rd party next year.
The three front running Democrats are all too old to run again in 2024. If one of them gets elected, he or she should say that it’s one term and done for me. I think Harris or Castro would be re-electable, trouble is they aren’t going to be elected in 2020.
Winning the White House and Senate in 2020 is not going to be enough if McConnell is allowed to kill every Democratic initiative via the filibuster. The filibuster was a nice Senatorial toy while it lasted, but Moscow Mitch broke it. Time to throw it away. Elect a Democratic president, House, and Senate and destroy the filibuster, then Democrats can do some good and prove to the people that they are the ones who should be in power. Miss one item on that checklist, and Republicans would gladly steer the ship of state into the shoals in order to regain control of the wreckage.
Is that the new word for “patriotic”? What sets them apart from the others is their belief that America is capable of doing the same things that the rest of the world is capable of. This is in contrast to the Republican “sane” assertion that the US is so inferior to the rest of the world that we can’t do those things.
With all the Democratic candidates running this time, no one is good enough for you?
Voting 3rd Party? As horrible as Trump is, he was still more qualified than Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. You realize the Greens and Libertarians have been invisible the past 4 years except for a Green spoiler candidate in an Ohio special election who discussed contact with aliens on his website.
The one who can best avoid the overdue recession or help keep it very short sand mild, while also avoiding the international disasters that we are driving headlong into at full speed right now.
Not sure who that is yet. But my first concern is still who is most assured of winning the 2020 and next most who can best increase the odds of winning the Senate. Then if she or he does a good job 2024 can take care of itself.
What actually matters is if Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders actually did half of what they are promising to do. Because if they did, they’d leave the economy in tatters and Americans screaming at each other and at them.
The most re-electable Democrat will be the one who violates the most campaign promises, because their campaign promises, if carried out, will destroy any chance of re-election.
So my choice would be Biden, who will govern as his cohorts at Goldman Sachs and the other big Democratic power players want.
Hickenlooper was my favorite but he’s gone. I liked Gillibrand on the surface but she didn’t last long enough for me to any deep research on her policies. The only one left I’d be happy voting for is Bullock and he didn’t make tonight’s debate or the last one and is probably not going to make November so even if he hasn’t dropped out he doesn’t have a chance. Right now it seems the real choices are at most the 7 who have qualified for the November debate and the only one that doesn’t immediately make me think “nope” is Booker.
Gary Johnson may have smoked himself retarded but he’s a more qualified candidate then Yang, Beto or Buttigieg at a minimum. I disagree with a lot of his policy positions and he’s not nearly as sharp as he was when he was governor but I think that his crazyness would be properly constrained by congress and the things he could accomplish would be mostly good since he wouldn’t have a majority in either house.
If I’m guessing at where my vote will land today I’d guess at a split ticket with my voting for the dem nominee for president and then Cory Gardner to prevent the Dems from having the Senate. That way nothing gets accomplished until we can elect someone who doesn’t suck.
Age/ealth is the only remotely reasonable criteria to consider for your poll question. There is no damn way anyone can make any meaningful predictions about someone’s re-electability a year and a half before they are even elected.
Where in the world has national rent control worked? Sanders should call that his plan to end rental property construction. That’ll sure help with the housing shortage.
Elizabeth Warren says that she will ban all fracking and offshore oil drilling on her first day in office. Kiss hundreds of billions of dollars goodbye. Then she says she’ll mandate a zero-carbon energy system within 8-15 years, and do it while also getting rid of all nuclear power. This is a pipe dream, and destructive. Is there any place that has come even close to doing this? Even given, say, twice the amount of time?
Then there is her plan to force large companies to fire 40% of their directors and replace them with union reps. Think that one will pass constitutional muster, or be implementable without massive howls of protest from large corporations?
This just scratches the surface of their authoritarian, unworkable, destructive plans.
Really, it depends. Who beats Trump is going to have a huge leg up on re-election. Also, what do they do? Do they simply roll back everything Trump did, or be an anti-Trump, or do they do their own thing…and if so, what is it and, more importantly, how successful are they in getting it done? I imagine in the current political environment, that any Dem president is going to have issues with the fact that Republicans are unlikely, in the extreme, to support most things that, say, progressives want. Hell, they might not support anything even a moderate Dem wants at this stage. And that’s important, as for many things you can’t just steam roll over the other branches and get what you want.
I picked Warren, mainly based on my suspicion she will get the nomination and that basically ANY Dem getting it will beat Trump. And the incumbent SHOULD have an advantage in the next election. But really, it depends on what she does and how she does it. Try and push through a Progressive agenda, IMHO, sets things up for Republicans to make a come back in Congress and at the local level…depending on what she pushes for. I think SOME things Progressives want might be more popular than others, at least to the vast center (probably nothing she or any other Dem does is going to make the Republicans happy).
As the poll is worded, I’ll have to say Warren – although as a Green in California, I won’t tip the primary.
As I dare to read news, I must say I have no solid idea; the Demo convention is far away and much good and bad can happen before then. If this POTUS and VEEP flee for refuge in Riyadh when intolerable truths emerge, Pres. Pelosi might surprise us.