I’m sorry, I meant Stacey, not Colleen. You know, the lawyer. Okay, that’s all, you can go back to what you were doing now…
Maybe Sean is the Machiavelli here. Maybe Sean is still secretly part of “the Alliance.” Maybe he’s just hiding behind this alphabet thing as long as no members of the Alliance come up alphabetically. Presumably, the other Allies would be in on the ruse.
Or maybe Sean’s just a goofball. ::Shrug::
I don’t believe Sean was ever part of the alliance, though he was in the same tribe.
First off I would like to mention that Kelly is the only person NEVER to have received a vote. I looked at the survivorsucks.com site and reviewed the votes and she is the only person not to receive a single vote. I am wondering if the first time she gets a vote cast against her is when she gets voted off the island.
I am curious where the people who have been voted off but are returning for the tribal councils are staying (as Greg did last night). It would take longer than a day and a half to fly to the island where they are at from the states and with tribal councils every 3 days a round trip would take longer than 3 days so they must be staying somewhere relatively close. I guess if they put them in a nice hotel with things to keep them occupied it wouldn’t be such a bad deal, but I know that Jenna can only have one thought on her mind now that she is out of contention for the money and that is to see her babies. Wonder how they are handling that. Anyone got any ideas or read anything?
OK, lots of people to reply to.
divemaster said, about Richard:
I doubt that CBS will show them the clips. Otherwise, why bring them back to be the “jury” at Tribal Council? Also, they don’t really have “clips” at that point, just a whole lot of unedited film that has to be cut down so we can see it now.
“So long”? The people who voted for him just joined the tribe last week.
It won’t “backfire.” You just stick around as long as you can. Better to have a 1 in 4 shot than a 1 in 16. Also, I have heard that even the losers get some amount of money – the longer they stay, the more money you get. So by forming the alliance and hanging around a few more days, they get more dough (presuming that is true).
Lib said:
Yup. He should have known better – and probably does, actually. But maybe it’s that time of the month for him. 
Flypsyde said:
Gack! She annoys the hell out of me. She seems like such a whiny child. I agree with your description of Sean, though.
Several people mentioned the clip about Sue joining with Kelly (and whoever else) to get rid of Rich. Don’t forget that Sue is a liar. I’m not saying this is necessarily a bad thing in this case, but just because she tells Kelly that doesn’t mean she won’t go back to Rich and Rudy and say, “Kelly’s got to go.”
Susan.
Well, we have a true Survivor addict. I’m pretty sure there’s no reason to stare at a blurry, paused VHS tape.
Thanks anyway, DKW.
Gazoo, there’s no reason for Sean to lie about his voting method when only the camera is on him. The rejected members don’t get to see the tapes, and I really doubt Sean is that cunning. I also think his behavior after the voting shows that he has been following his setup.
Wanderer, I believe the rejects are put up at the nearest mainland hotel, and that Jenna can handle the last bit of the contest while talking to her children everyday on the phone.
[quote]
I have heard that even the losers get some amount of money – the longer they stay, the more money you get{/quote]David B. While they do get fame, and everything’s paid for in the way of plane tickets and hotel fees, it would look bad for CBS to have contestents go home to no job and no money…it seems like they shouldn’t get a kick-back, but who knows? Anyone? Hello?
I can’t wait to see Gervase win…I’m going to laugh at everyone that over worked all the time. This island game is a vacation to him, I’d love to see him beat everyone.
I either read or saw (sorry, don’t have a cite) that the contestants all received money. Sonja, the first to go, was given $2500. The second-to-last person will get $100,000. Everyone else falls somewhere in between - obviously the longer they stayed on the island, the more they received.
I also remember reading that the last 7 to get kicked off (that return for the tribal council meetings) are staying with the crew. They built a makeshift camp on the other side of the island - hardly luxurious, but good food and shelter nonetheless. So, I don’t think they’re leaving the island at all.
I still want Richard and Gervase to lose. Any of the others could win and I’d be happy. Sean - what a dumbass.
Demigod - Addict? Whoa, whoa, whoa, I just tuned in two weeks ago. I spent maybe half a minute trying to make out the letter and thought someone else might be interested. You know on The Simpsons, every time they do that “improbably fast scroll” gag, the alt.tv.simpsons gang can’t wait to transcribe it. I was just offering. (My tapes aren’t at all blurry, either.)
boli - Yeah, that makes sense. Which makes it all the weirder that CBS tried to pitch this as a winner-take-all event. More misdirection? Who can tell…
Sean, I don’t think he’s necessarily idiotic, just aimless. He hasn’t formulated any kind of strategy and on day 27 it finally jumped up and bit him. Ah well, them’s the breaks, live and learn, que sera sera, etc.
You are very right David, and come to think of it (actually I believe someone mentioned it in this thread already) if Sean keeps up his alphabetical lunacy then his next vote is Kelly. The moron might as well join the damned alliance.
You know what I would love to see ? Rich-Sue-Rudy join up for just one council with Colleen-Cervaise and Kelly and all kick Sean’s sorry ass off the island, just because his non-strategy is so stupid. Sort of a “cleansing of those who don’t know how to play the game”.
Truthfully I have to say I am thinking Sue has the best shot right now - for the very reasons I cannot stand her : she’s an evil backstabbing liar. I am still rooting for Colleen . . . and yes it is mainly because she is easy on the eyes. I just wish she would “celebrate a birthday” on the island.
Demigod said:
I wouldn’t say it’s a “kick-back,” but rather a prize for coming in second, third, etc. Somebody else already posted more info, but it’s no different than the winner of the world series getting big money, the loser getting less, the losers of the playoffs getting less still, etc.
I’d also see it partially as compensation–most of the people are probably on unpaid leave from their jobs. And you know CBS is probably making huge piles of cash as long as they kept the costs of making the show reasonable. Except for the winner, the “actors” are likely only getting a relatively small percentage.
Kelly has to know that if she does nothing, she will be next to go (due to Sean’s goofy non-strategy). Therefore, it will certainly be in her interest to try to talk Sue and/or Rudy into breaking up “The Alliance.”
I think Sue may go for it. Think about it. The clip shows her telling Kelly that Rich has to go. Now if she’s lying about that (as some of you seem to think), and she votes Kelly off the island, it will come back to haunt her when the full tribe votes for the final survivor. She would have then lost Kelly’s vote, and could only count on Rich and Rudy.
I predict Sue turns on Rich this week, and brings Rudy along with her.
Let me clarify. Here’s how I think it will play out in Sue’s mind:
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Sue agrees to shift alliances. She votes Rich off the island.
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Sue envisions a “Girls’ Club” alliance. Sue talks the women into voting Sean off next. (If she waits, she will come up on his alphabetical list right after Rudy.)
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Next, the women team up to pick off Gervase. This gives Sue some time to kiss up to Rudy, and smooth over any hard feelings.
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Rudy is next to go, naturally.
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Sue then tries to talk Kelly into voting Colleen off.
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Sue takes her chances against Kelly.
That’s how Sue thinks it will play out, but it won’t. Things that could interfere: -
Gervase or Sean wins an immunity challenge at a critical juncture.
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Colleen, realizing that if it comes down to her, Sue and Kelly, she might get voted out, will form an alliance with Gervase, and will try to talk Kelly into joining them. (This is how I could see Gervase winding up winning the whole shebang. It comes down to Gervase, Colleen and Kelly, and then Gervase wins an immunity challenge, or teams up with Colleen to vote Kelly off. Gervase then wins the final vote just because he has managed not to tick anyone off.)
Whoa! When did I get stuck on the island? 
Must have been another blackout. Damn Jagermeisters.
You guys are missing something. Richard has ALREADY won. Why? Because as soon as he’s off that island he’s going to be a celebrity ( I know he’s off now, but he’s part of the CBS media blackout for contestants who still haven’t been kicked off the show). How much do you want to bet he signs a book deal for more than the million he would have won anyway? He has staked out territory as the most interesting person on the island. That’s got to be worth a lot. Also, he’s a corporate trainer, and his fame will probably allow him to double or triple his rates.
The name of the game is to leverage your 16 weeks in the public spotlight. The rewards from that will dwarf the actual prize money.
Would you want to read a book written by Dirk, or Kelly? Probably not, because they have made no impact at all. But Jenna, Richard, and a couple of the others that have lasted this long have an opportunity to leverage their fame into some real money. And of course, it goes without saying that Jenna and Colleen could probably make half a million bucks by posing for Playboy when they come back.
I noticed a couple of times that Jenna has been busy writing in a journal. She was seen doing that several times in the last few episodes. So perhaps she’s already working on a book.
Why is no one willing to give the devil his due?
As much as we all may dislike Richard, he has done two proactive things that set him apart from the rest of the slackers, namely 1. he gets food, and 2. he’s created a survival strategy beyond day-to-day existance, namely the Alliance. When you think about it, he really is the only real “survivor” in the bunch.
Does this mean I want him to be the big bucks winner? Not really, but my sense of justice prevents me from hoping he gets the ax too quickly.
Anyway, after tossing and turning in bed for an hour last night working this out in my head, I’ve come to the conclusion that this week’s immunity challenge will determine the direction of the rest of the series. Here’s my logic:
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I will assume that the Alliance will hold. There’s no real reason to think it won’t, despite CBS’s teaser clips.
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I will also assume Sean will stick to his guns with the ABC Plan, at least for a week or two more.
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If anyone but Kelli wins the IC, Kelli is history. (The Alliance – with the blind help of Sean’s ABC Plan – puts her head on the block next, and the other three can’t stop it.) Once Kelli’s gone the Alliance becomes unstoppable if it remains intact – which it should until it starts eating it’s own tail. If they’re smart, they’ll whack Sean next because his ABC system will soon begin sniping at Alliance members. Then they should try to knock out Gervase – his ability to keep winning immunity makes him a big, big threat; in fact he might be a better first taget than Sean, because immunity skills are ultimately the BEST ticket to a shot at the million bucks at this point. Then Colleen goes. That leaves the Alliance to duke it out among themselves.
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BUT… if Kelli wins immunity, the Alliance is (potentially) fucked! Richard will end up in the crosshairs big time… Sean’s ABC vote will have to skip Kelly and go to Richard; and all the Richard-hating non-Alliance players will vote for Richard, too. That makes Richard toast, and possibly the Alliance as well. Then it’s anybody’s ballgame.
Closing thoughts:
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If Kelly does not win immunity this week, my money (and heart) is with Rudy. You can’t help not liking the old bastard. And the people who hated him most won’t be part of the final jury, so if he lasts to the end with Richard or Susan, he’ll win the jury vote and take home the big money.
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One final observation about the show in general: The players (and us viewers) should stop holding grudges against “leaders” and “assholes.” They’re not real threats. The BIGGEST threat are people with the best immunity challenge skills. Baby, if you can keep winning that necklace, who cares how much rice or bugs you have to eat or how many people hate you? Which is why Gervase may win as the rumors claim. As long as he’s up against senior citizens and whiney little girls, you can NEVER count him out.
I agree (as I posted earlier), that Richard should win (for the same reasons you mention). But I don’t think he will because when the seven person jury votes they will vote against him.
Here’s what I think…
Gervaise had said - that he had to keep winning the immunity challenges for him to stay. He doesn’t. The first alliance gets him.
The women seem to be getting along and will all vote for the biggest threat to them. But they will keep Rich around to fish for another week or two.
So it’s… - Bye Bye Gervaise you lazy bum.
Sean the idiot will get the boot soon for the same reason, a threat to win the immunity challenges, leaving Rudy, Rich and the women.
The female alliance then punts Rudy.
Then Rich. (Or trucker women - if Rich wins the IC.)
Susan will be the first of the woman’s alliance to go, as she is the strongest contender in the IC’s.
Colleen will last because she is no threat to anyone, unless she pisses off everyone.
Kelly wins the vote over Colleen because - by this time Colleen has slept with everyone who votes, including the women. So they will turn on her in the end.
Simple… right?
Smug: Not a bad prediction, except how do you expect Kelly to survive next week unless she wins immunity? The Alliance still needs to parrot Sean’s robotic ABC vote to be invincible, and this week Sean is up to “K”… as in “Kelly.”
(See my scenario a couple of posts above which takes this into account.)