In my opinion, simply no, Biden cannot beat Trump in November. There’s a lot of time til then so there’s technically a few things that could happen to help his chances.
Is this just a hunch, or do have an opinion on how each of the swing states will go?
Exactly. I don’t see him being inspiring enough to help get enough Dem voters out come November. I hope I’m wrong, but. . .
Its about the union states, the rust belt. Biden could take states like Michigan, like he did tonight from Trump. Penn, Ohio & Indiana. He has a legit shot at Florida too. Probably Wisconsin. Maybe Missouri. Some portion of these states will switch the results.
If he grabs just Indianna, Ohio & Pennsylvania he wins. This is not so hard.
My thoughts is with tonight’s victory it is time for Biden to unite the party. Quietly meet with Sanders & Warren for them to pick a shortlist of acceptable Progressive VP picks so that they’ll campaign hard to get their supporters out to vote the Dem Tickets and vote Trump the hell out. Sanders just lost Michigan where he beat HRC. He is pretty much done, make it easy for him to step out soon.
Chuck “my mom cuts my hair this way because it’s easier for her to comb for me in the mornings” Todd called Bernie Bros “brownshirts” on the air. This Nazi reference came just before Chris Mathews likened Bernie’s surge as a Nazi invasion.
On Reddit, they are being accused of personally attacking Warren and being in general uncouth and frothingly rabid, without any regard to the FBI stated fact that Russia has a concerted effort to troll as “Bernie Bros” to wreak chaos.
No sane Bernie supporters will vote against whoever the dem nom is. Sure they are headstrong and idealistic but they aren’t going to let Trump win. On the other hand, I’ve heard a lot of Yang and Warren people swear an oath they will not vote for either Bernie nor Biden. So whatever little rumors we are all individually hearing, it goes in every direction with everyone’s base.
I did the research earlier today - H.R.C. lost several states to Donny Drumpf that she won against Bernie so I don’t think it makes much sense to try to project Gaffey Joe wins against Drumpf in states that he won against his Dem opponent.
- If progressives do make significant gains in 2024/2028, their agenda is a lot less likely to be gutted by the courts if Trump hasn’t had another four years to stack the judiciary with judges vetted by the Heritage Foundation and Federalist Society.
Yeah it’s more of a hunch really. I would expect Biden to take a swing state or two, but expecting cyber Facebook warfare, dirty tricks by the GOP, Russia, the fact that I’m pretty sure Biden will do poorly in debates, the lack of enthusiasm for him from anybody on the left, etc. he is this year’s Hillary imho.
I think a more relevant comparison is how Biden did vs Bernie compared to how Hillary did vs Bernie. In Michigan, Bernie beat Hillary, but Biden beat Bernie. Hillary lost Michigan to Trump super-narrowly. So Hillary barely lost Trump, and Michiganers prefer Biden over Bernie over Hillary, so…
Obviously doesn’t prove anything, but it certainly seems like a reason to have some optimism.
Your uncute nicknames are actually really dumb. Hard to treat the rest of what you type at all seriously.
Look at the 2008 & 2012 election vs 2016. Many states won by Obama & Biden that Hillary failed with. These are the states Biden can with the electoral college with.
A significant part of the odds is the state of the economy. If there is a really bad recession this year, Trump’s odds of re-election suffer badly. Much of the Trumpist argument for continued support has been based on the strong economy; the loss of that cannot help his turnout.
Contrary to what some people will say, the state of the economy doesn’t guarantee the result; parties have retained the White House in poorer conditions and lost it in good conditions. But it definitely has an impact.
Since we do not know how that will shake out, making a solid prediction right now is impossible.
I mean, Biden doesn’t have to pull off shocking wins like Obama did in 2008 with North Carolina. Just winning back the rust belt states Clinton shamefully lost means a 279-259 win:
Winning something like Florida isn’t even necessary in that scenario, but it would mean the election would be called pretty early on.
But Sanders is this year’s Sanders.
That’s the problem with the Sanders argument. If Sanders can’t beat Clinton or Biden, how are we supposed to believe he can beat Trump? Apparently it somehow involves enthusiasm and energy. But if those things exist and win elections, where have they been?
All of this. You absolutely nailed it.
Yes but he needs to flip into general election mode now. The next set of contests is going to be even worse for Sanders so it’s time Biden starts putting together a message to unite the party and the factions. Andrew Yang last night said in his private conversations with other candidates, no one showed more of a curiosity to hear about the Fourth Industrial Revolution message Yang was running on so it gives some hope that Biden isn’t just running on a return to normalcy but to have a vision for his presidency. Biden also needs to start taking on leadership moments such as addressing the nation on Covid-19. From what I understand he was supposed to do that last night but his speech was so late into the night meant it was not going to be significant. Instead his speech was a typical well rehearsed victory speech.
Edit: Biden will be giving a speech on Covid-19 tomorrow I’ve just found out.
I voted for Warren. I am not furious and pouting that she didn’t make it. Politics is about making sausage. Sad but true.
It is perfectly obvious now that Bernie would lose big to Trump. There is no possible imaginable path for him. Biden’s path is nothing like as dubious. I don’t feel confident but I also don’t feel a sense of impending doom. Yet.
Those who want a revolution are always a minority, no matter what they want to believe.
I believe that you are missing my point, allow me to clarify. And by that I mean reoeat:
…with his support among African-Americans, he’s the most likely candidate to be able to beat Trump.
“repeat”
(The pinnacle of redundancy, repeating repeat. Just ask Devo!)
I don’t think Sanders stood a chance against Trump. Biden could do it.
As I’ve said elsewhere, there are those who still believe that the DNC played an active role in suppressing or discouraging Sanders votes. So I think the logic is that once the establishment is unable to interfere, those voters will come surging in.
Biden might be able to beat Trump if Trump has a really bad game in terms of FB. It would be like Trump fumbling the ball away and throwing interceptions. That’s probably Biden’s main shot.