That’s about 760k remaining to be counted. Biden has been winning them by about 50%, consistently. That would put him up by 180kish when everything is counted. It’s not set in stone that that will be how is plays out, obviously. So it won’t be called for a while.
Mithras’s method is perfectly good. I had been tracking the amount gained per percent returned, but that required that the “88% reported” number was accurate.
To fill in that gap, if there are truly 760k ballots left, then it is really more like 89% reported.
But the key point is that in the last 600k votes counted or so, Biden has been winning something like 75/25.
And if you think that is unsustainable, you just need to go to the current percentages and compare them to the 2016 returns. It shows pretty clearly that Biden over-performed Clinton in the counties that have fully reported by sufficient margins to carry the state.
I do think there are likely lots of counties in PA that aren’t going to count and report until tomorrow. So it’s looking pretty likely that nothing will be decided tonight, except maybe maybe Arizona (for those networks that haven’t called it) if the 1am returns look decent for Biden (better than the 9pm ones).
Also, the no excuse absentee voting in PA is brand new. It’s not an entrenched part of the process where people have been doing it for years. So it seems like it’s perceived by voters as something to do to avoid Covid exposure, not as just a more convenient way to vote. Meaning even in red counties, those votes should stay very blue.
Wouldn’t be the first time, won’t be the last. Those political desk folks are generally pretty sharp (including and maybe particularly Fox and AP), but they do operate under some individual biases and assumptions. And there is always pressure to call it first for bragging rights/interested eyeballs. I’m hoping they’re right, but it did look like a premature call.
But here is another fear, just to add to the angst.
As I dig in the numbers on that dashboard I find things like this. York County has 77k ballots included in that dashboard, with 0 listed as counted. So that is included in the 760k outstanding. But, in actually, they have counted them. And the numbers on the county website match what is on the NYT website. They just didn’t call them out in their reporting I guess.
So that means it’s really only 683k left. Which means the % reported is actually more like 90.7%… that ups the ante a bit for Biden’s needed returns on remaining ballots.
I haven’t scrubbed the rest of the list, but certainly am going to start doing so.
ETA: Butler County too. Says 33k remaining in the dashboard, but I think it’s all actually counted. They just rolled it up in the totals. So that means 650k outstanding.
I’m not really expressing an opinion, but I’m really nervous. I think the outstanding ballots in Pima were part of the Fox calculation. They may have been looking deeper into precinct by precinct accounts. I’ll be honest, I wasn’t really following, it was just soothing because they were telling me what I wanted to hear. Then I realized that’s how it starts and I changed the channel really fast.
CNN has also mentioned Cindy McCain’s endorsement as a factor, as well as Mark Kelly, who is a strong candidate and who did win.
The ratio of mail-in voting in PA is 78% Biden vs. 22% Trump, and has been right in that ballpark at least since early this morning. If you mean 50 percentage points, then sure that’s not too far off (which I’m guessing based on your predicted outcome), but 50% is confusing in this context.
I’ve not been following as much today but it seems that the ones who are most optimistic about a turnaround in AZ are Trump’s campaign. They could know something we don’t, but we will see soon enough
I forget where I saw it, but at some point in the early evening, I read that the number of ballots that arrived today in PA was in either the hundreds or low thousands. They should not be relevant.
OK, so I’m trying to talk myself down, so I did a worst-case. I went through the dashboard and assumed that every county where they listed 0 as the number counted actually had them all counted. I think that’s very likely true, to be honest.
If that’s the case, then there are only 562,847 remaining mail-in votes. If those also break 75/25, then Biden will pick up 281k or so, which is enough. But not as comfortable as my earlier calculations.
We also have to remember there is some number of additional ballots that will continue to be received, I assume. And those will be counted as well, and have already been challenged by Trump.
I don’t know if this will help, but I did the whole mail in thing (well, actually took my ballot to a drop box a few weeks ago) because nobody out here thinks that COVID is a thing. There were only 2 people wearing masks during the primaries and I didn’t want to risk dying by going to a polling place.
Hubs, who is a Trumpie and drank the COVID kool-aid voted on election day. I went with him and sat in the parking lot and watched. I saw a few folks in masks, but most of them were proudly naked faced and obviously never heard of social distancing.
So, I’m telling you this to say that IMHO, most of Arizona’s vote in person folks were Trumpies. Those of us who are more cautious probably also voted for Biden.
Just that the election is being stolen. About 200 people, they are not getting inside the polling place. The reporter just walked in, you can’t hear them from inside
I guess FOX is now part of the Deep State, calling AZ for Biden
and I changed the channel really fast.