If all the states went with the Maine and Nebraska method the Democrats would never win again due to Republican gerrymandering.
Hmm - depending on how the state votes are determined, a “red” state which has a majority of “blue” House members might still vote Dem, right? Dunno how many of the states that went for Chump have more Dem house members though.
Each state delegation can decide among themselves any way they want. They are under no obligation to vote one way or another. Since there are more red states I would be willing to bet each delegation would piously tell us they are just voting the will of the people from their state…never mind anything else.
I think someone looked it up yesterday when the question came up a couple of times. I think it would be a 27-23 Trump vote, with 2 states being relatively uncertain because it’d be a tie.
Apparently we did have international observers: 2020 Election Results, News And Analysis : NPR (note there are multiple stories on that page; you may need to scroll to find this one, though I think this link may go straight to it)
International observers monitoring the U.S. presidential race said America’s election system has passed “an extreme stress test” but warned that President Trump is trying to undermine trust in it.
“Baseless allegations of systematic deficiencies, notably by the incumbent President, including on election night, harm public trust in democratic institutions,” said Michael Georg Link, a German politician monitoring the U.S. elections with the 57-nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Link called on U.S. officials to make sure that every vote is counted.
The OSCE monitors were invited by the State Department and have tracked U.S. elections for nearly two decades.
Sewing a festering wound closed is not a good idea. You have to clean it out first, then close it.
Uh, because they don’t just straight up vote. They vote one vote per state and more states are red than blue.
It’s insane, but true.
Looking at the latest figures from PA and GA, I think it’s somewhat unlikely that Biden will take either. The larger population centers in PA just don’t have that many remaining votes to count; Pittsburgh and Philadelphia’s uncounted ballots would basically ALL have to go for Biden to take over.
Similarly in Georgia. there just aren’t that many votes outstanding in the Dem-leaning counties. I think Georgia, despite a smaller Chump lead (< 20,000) is less likely than Pennsylvania.
Even less chance of NC: Chump is ahead by 80,000 votes there and I think it would be tough to pull off a win there.
I’m nervous about Nevada - the lead is only about 8,000 there, and both Clark and Washoe counties have quite a lot of votes to go. If those aren’t completely skewed it should be OK but you never know.
Trump tweeting “Stop the count” this morning. Does somebody want to fill him in on who wins the election if they stop the count right now?
OK, now Georgia is coming up at 99%. 2,432,799 for Trump to 2,414,651 for
Biden so 18,148. That doesn’t bode too well for Biden. Biden needs to take about 34k of the remaining 50k to tie it up. so if Biden wins 70% of the remaining ballots, he’ll squeeze out Georgia.
Nope, don’t tell him.
Just saw a meme:
“The All Lives Matter crowd is extremely upset to learn that All Votes Matter.”
Looking at the big 3:
- AZ: after the last reported batch, Biden needs 42.7% of the remaining ballots. He got 41.3% of the last batch. So if 86% remaining is correct and the rest come in with the same split, he loses. BUT that 86% hasn’t changed after the last few tranches, so it can’t be correct. And Pima county still has some remaining, which should be a little more Biden-leaning. So this one’s totally up in the air.
- GA: there are around 50K absentee ballots left according to the Sec of State. Biden would need 70% of those. The last few batches have come in at 62, 73, 66, 76. And there are still come provisional and military ballots not included in that count. So this one’s totally up in the air.
- PA: Biden has closed to within 140K votes. If this truly reflects 89% (i.e., 780K remaining), he needs 60% of these. If there are more like 500K votes left, then he needs 65% of the remainder. Doable, but not a sure thing. Some of it depends on how much of the remaining votes are from Philadelphia. So this one’s totally up in the air.
See a pattern?
Trump does (really).
EDIT: Maybe not.
I’m noodling around the map on the NY Times looking for urban areas which did NOT go blue. So far the largest I see is Knoxville, TN. Even in deep red states it looks like almost any city of any size went blue.
A few more: Boise, ID stayed red. Dallas is blue but Fort Worth is red.
I am imagining Nevada waking up today, getting out of bed, looking around scratching it’s head and thinking “hmm… I was going to do something today… what was it?”
Biden currently has 253 plus Arizona and Nevada if we stop counting right now. That’s 270 on the nose.
I just do not trust Trump and republicans with the EC if Biden only needs to lose one elector to give it to Trump.
I don’t advocate for the ME/NE method either but true proportional voting. My point was at least they’re not first past the post.