That reminds me: There are 535 EC votes. Half of that is 268 (well, 267.5, but it seems to be illegal to chop an elector in half so I rounded up)… Why 270 to win? Why not 268?
You might want to check your numbers. Hint: the 538 website has that name for a reason.
Because there are 538 EC votes.
Well, stopping the count is just part of his strategy. He’s actively working on ways to have existing votes tossed out.
Oh.
Duh.
When I was playing with numbers the other day I forgot DC, which has 3…
No, the news is confusing. There are about 120K votes in Philly, yes, and that’s about the number he needs to win. But there are 300k other mail in ballots elsewhere–and those will certainly trend blue. If 80% of the Philly ones are for Biden (which is the pattern), the others will push him over, even if they are like 55/45 (and they will probably be better than that).
Maybe there were some hindsight-errors made by the Democratic party, but broadly speaking, I don’t understand the criticism of the party and of the Biden campaign. They really got historic turnout of Democratic voters – better than over 100 years. He vastly increased the number of votes from 2016 in just about every state and locality. The reason it was still close is that Trump also greatly increased his numbers, which I don’t think anyone predicted. And I also don’t know how this could have been stopped by the Democrats – apparently there were a lot more non-voting Trump supporters than anyone figured. But the Democrats did historically well in terms of increasing voting for Democratic candidates, including Biden. I’m not sure if they could have done significantly better with a different strategy.
To win you need 270. If Biden has 270 and loses one then he has 269 which is not sufficient and it goes to the House.
Hell, they don’t even need to vote. Abstaining would do it.
I feel like AZ, PA, and GA will all come down to provisional ballots and endless lawsuits about which ones to count. It’s kind of the nightmare scenario. The Supreme Court could decide the election.
I think AZ will be enough Biden votes to avoid that. PA & GA would be the ones.
This Google doc is tracking Georgia and Pennsylvania counts - it shows really clearly (assuming you can read the spreadhseet) why Biden should comfortable win Pa and why Biden is still on track to win Ga:
Well, I woke up to see that not much has changed in the math. Some more tightening in PA and GA. Both within striking distance, but neither very clear.
The big unanswered questions are how many ballots are left in each, and what type are they. GA SoS says maybe 61k un-counted mail-in absentees in GA, mainly in large cities. Obviously that sounds good. PA hasn’t really given many numbers, and their websites are hopelessly out of date.
Oh, and one other question - is Nevada still there? Has anybody checked? Were they raptured or go on a bender or something?
To add to this: I always forget how populated Pennsylvania is: it’s the 5th biggest state by population, with over 12 million people. So 11% of the vote out there still is a LOT of votes, and 120k deficit in Pennsylvania not nearly as insurmountable as it would be in even in AZ (pop 7 mil).
Counting in pa is round the clock. There is a smaller group in the wee hours, but the ballots are being worked on and they keep a constant chain of custody.
6 million in the phila region.
Thanks for that. So, if I’m reading the spreadsheets correctly, it looks like Biden’s gains are starting to slow down in GA to below what he needs to flip it right now, but staying steady in PA.
They have (supposedly) been counting, but said they would release results at 9:00 am PST today (noon for you easties).
My completely useless prediction of where we’re headed, posted because it makes me feel good:
- GA and AZ are going to be unbelievably close, like 2000-FL-level close, but both eventually go to Trump.
- NV will finally report this afternoon and Biden will hold it, close but not as close as above.
- PA, once all votes are finally counted, will go Biden by a “comfortable” (ha!) 50k votes or so.
- Biden wins.
Got it - thanks! I thought they had said 9am ET, not local. Which would be 8 for me, actually. 9am local makes much more sense.
The last GA update actually skewed slightly to Trump but it was tiny and gave him only an extra 50 votes; however on average the post-election day counting has skewed 72% to Biden. He needs 66% of the remaining count to take the lead assuming the 59,659 remaining votes estimate is correct.
The last update in PA actually accelerated the Biden chase. He needs 63% of the remaining count but that last update gave him 83% as it came from Philadelphia County.
Thanks! That’s some hard data I really needed to see.
That post might make you feel good, but it sure doesn’t for me, despite your ultimate prediction. Too close for comfort. I think (hope?) Biden will hold onto AZ.