For those who are worried about PA (i.e. all of us), this from Geoffrey Skelley: “Even though it’s been projected as a Biden win, here’s a short update on the vote in Michigan — a reminder that the near-final figures in a state can seem different from the narrative surrounding them as counting was going on. With pretty much everything in, Biden leads Trump 50.6 percent to 47.8 percent. That’s close, of course, but it’s not quite the razor-thin margin we saw on Wednesday morning. It speaks to just how much of a blue shift can happen due to outstanding votes in Democratic-leaning areas from mail-in ballots.”
Biden won’t get enough votes from Fulton County to overtake Trump; he’ll need a majority (or more) of the votes from the remaining counties’ votes if he is to overtake Trump and win Georgia.
I’m a little more bullish on PA than I was given that most of the remaining votes are in heavily Democratic areas.
Nevada and Arizona still concern me, though I am hopeful that most of the uncounted vote will come from Las Vegas and Reno, which should slightly favor Biden.
Agree! It’ll be a huge job. YOOOOOJ!
I’m going to make an optimistic prediction, partly based on everything I’ve been hearing this morning, partly to make myself feel good:
- Biden hangs on to his NV and AZ leads by a thin margin. He eventually takes PA.
- trump holds on to NC and just barely hangs onto GA by a razor-thin margin.
- This gives Biden a comfortable 290 EC votes.
I’m pretty confident about PA except in the number of ballots outstanding. The only thing I can see that could stop Biden is if they’ve somehow underestimated how many are left to count.
No Fulton County won’t be enough. The big variable is how many votes there are actually left to count. Biden also needs heavy % wins in places like Clayton, Cobb, Douglas, Muscogee and Bibb counties.
EDIT: Latest update is that there are 61k left to count, which sounds like good news for Biden, but where are they from?
The most alarming point to take away from this election is that you have +68 million Trump voters in your country. Your immediate battle is done; you can now start working to fix your current problems (corona, race protests, economy, etc.) once Biden takes office, but… +68 million Trump voters… People who actively want to destroy your country by hosting a lazy, corrupt, nepotistic, damaging, incompetent president (plus the party that actively shields/supports/enables them).
These people are not going away. They are protesting your democracy (vote counting) right now. These are people who demand (the right) to be vectors of deadly disease spread (anti-mask, anti-lockdown). They fight efforts in building a public health care system, climate action, international political leadership, and any media scrutiny. They idealize racism, repeated performative acts of clear lying and propaganda, insane conspiracy theories involving ideas as fringe as satanic worship (or comparatively mundane/tame ones like health care death panels, or Obama is illegal).
This is a recipe for a failed state. You need to confront this reality. You can’t have one-half of your country openly acting as a chaotic/evil aligned Batman villain.
Cobb is doable, not sure about the other counties.
Which is an amusing statement to someone in Georgia. Cobb is known as a historically BIG Republican county.
Clayton is still out there. It is the blackest county in GA.
I’d be more worried if they overestimated the count left. If there are actually fewer left to count than what they claim, then that closes the window for a Biden comeback. My guess is that because they could not start counting until election day, the areas with heavy mail-in balloting, Phila and Pitt, are the votes we’re waiting on. That would be consistent with the shrinking Trump lead.
There are going to be some votes that will come in that will be pro-Trump, such as military service members abroad and expats working abroad in high-paying jobs. But I’m guessing most of the outstanding vote will go Biden’s way.
I’m a little less confident of that in AZ because it’s entirely possible that older, more conservative voters who were voting by mail out of fear of catching COVID are among those votes that are outstanding. This could lead to a major reversal. I still think Biden’s favored b/c it’s so late in the game, but you can’t really call AZ for certain just yet
I don’t think anyone here would disagree with that assessment, but I’m not sure how Democrats could attract more voters short of disseminating racist propaganda, taking away rights from women, and throwing poor people into the streets, as it’s very clear that’s what a sizeable portion of the country really wants. We’ve been “confronting this reality” for at least the past four years, but you can’t reason with evil any more than Batman can reason with the Joker.
Yes, aware of that. However, it’s no secret that Trump has tanked in the suburbs. Whether that’s true in Cobb, I don’t know.
And the thing is that they have been made this way by a relentless right-wing propaganda machine designed to funnel money and power to the people behind it, creating a new reality for their followers that is so disconnected from what’s actually happened that coherent discourse and civil disagreement are increasingly impossible to achieve.
In any other world this would be an insane, comic-book level conspiracy theory and yet here we are.
We’ve always had them living in this country. They were here five years ago when Obama was President and everything looked normal. Trump just gave these people a leader to follow. The closest thing that had to good news was that Trump had no idea where he was going.
If Biden wins, those people aren’t going to disappear. They will go back to drifting aimlessly. But somebody is going to decide to be the next Trump. He’ll follow Trump in gathering up the deplorables and having no regard for the law. But the next Trump may not be as dumb and aimless as this Trump is; he might have a plan.
It is true in Cobb. +12 Biden so far. I shared with my friends with the “Can you believe this” sort of tag.
From Nate Silver, regarding the remaining votes in GA:
Remaining Georgia votes are mostly in blue counties
| COUNTY | OUTSTANDING VOTES | DEMOCRATIC LEAN IN 2016 RELATIVE TO REST OF GEORGIA |
|---|---|---|
| Chatham | 17,157 | +22 |
| Fulton | 11,200 | +51 |
| Clayton | 7,408 | +75 |
| Gwinnett | 7,338 | +23 |
| Forsyth | 4,713 | -29 |
| Harris | 3,641 | -49 |
| Bryan | 3,027 | -38 |
| Laurens | 1,797 | -24 |
| Putnam | 1,552 | -37 |
| Sumter | 1,202 | +51 |
| Cobb | 700 | +7 |
| Floyd | 682 | -38 |
| Burke | 494 | +8 |
| Taylor | 456 | -18 |
| Weighted Average | +19 |
SOURCE: GEORGIA SECRETARY OF STATE, THE NEW YORK TIMES
ETA: Also, according to the AP, Biden’s down by about 18,000 votes.
The idea that we’re even talking about the possibility of Cobb going blue is blowing my mind right now.
Back of napkin gives me +31,000 votes from the first four lines.
Your points are good ones, but of those ~68 million trump voters, I have to believe only about 30% of those are hardcore, believe everything trump says, trump can do no wrong, kool-aid drinking, AR-15 toting, anti-democratic brainwashed cultists. The 30% or so is a sizable minority, and a loud one, but a minority.
The rest are:
- Eh, I don’t know much about politics, so I’ll just vote for the incumbent
- I’m scared of the riots, and I heard trump say “LAW AND ORDER” several thousand times
- I can’t stand him personally, but I’m a lifelong Repub, and I heard Biden is a Socialist commie
Can I just remark that it is appearing that the GOP institutionalists have already conceded?
… McConnell is talking about how he’s going to stymie Biden.
… The legal team sent to fight for Trump is not the typical GOP insider legal teams, it’s just Rudy, Bondi, and Sekulow. (This is a big tell, imho.)
… Their defenses of Trump and his count/don’t count arguments are silent. They’re just not speaking up in any meaningful way.
They’ve gotten all they can from Trump. Now they’re given an opportunity to be rid of him. And it appears that they’re taking it.