Election Day [Week][Month[s]] [Year] 2020 follow-along thread

Give it a few weeks. You will be hard pressed to find a Republican who remembers supporting Trump.

Who?..

Nope. Not at all. It is usually the senior member of the majority party. The VP will only get that person installed (if there is a tie the VP needs to break). Otherwise the VP has very little to do in the senate despite a nifty title (president of the Senate).

What “movement”? “#WalkAway” is fundamentally a made-up astroturfing ploy that only conservatives seem to be gullible enough to believe in.

He was the guy who made the covfefe. Really not that important. I only met him once or twice.

Ticket-splitting cost the Dems several house seats.

Biden ran as much as double digits ahead of the democratic congressional district candidate. People who voted for him for president voted republican down-ballot to put a check on him.

One of the progressive wing congressional candidates running on Medicare For All, endorsed by Biden, Obama, AOC, Sanders in Nebraska’s second congressional district, lost her race by 5 points. Biden won by 11 points against Trump in the same district. He doesn’t support Medicare For All so what possible reason other than ticket-splitting can cause such a divide?

I hate to criticize spelling and grammar (not very good myself) but this is really stupid. If your sheep what, Eric?

Fight against this fraud. Our voters will never forget you if your sheep!

I’m not wording this right.

If the Senate is 50/50, and Harris is VP, will Schumer be called Majority Leader because Harris’ tie-breaking makes Dems the de facto majority? Or since there’s no actual majority or minority do those titles go on hold or something?

I just heard in a CNN press conference that 350,000 mail-in ballots remain to be counted in Pennsylvania, and that 4 precincts in Allegheny County have not been tabulated at all; the Secretary of State said she didn’t know why.

I’m willing to wait patiently, as long as the results are correct.

With Russian help.

https://arcdigital.media/pro-trump-russian-linked-twitter-accounts-are-posing-as-ex-democrats-in-new-astroturfed-movement-20359c1906d3

And only the “founder” and far-right alternate media claim otherwise.

So still no more information then, basically?
rips hair out

Pssst… @urbanredneck2. This is the part where you thank the nice person for the helpful factual information.

G’on then…

If Biden wins Schumer will most likely be the senate majority leader if dems get enough seats. If needed Harris would break a 50/50 tie to make it so. If it is 49/51 in favor of the republicans (or more) then McConnell will continue as majority leader.

I’m not so sure. The MAGAs now make up a large part of their base. Pretending to forget the old president, Bush Jr. style, isn’t going to work with Trump because those voters are more loyal to Trump the man than they are to the Republican party. All those votes that made 2020 a closer race in the house compared to 2018? Any Republican politician who pretends they never cared for Trump can kiss those votes goodbye.

I’ve been playing with extrapolating the numbers in PA: x% of votes counted, leaves y votes to be counted, and how many Trump and Biden would each get if the current ratios (statewide) hold.

Then I started grabbing the same figures for the largest counties, and some of the ones that were deepest red, and extrapolated how many additional votes each candidate might get from the to-be-counted ballots, assuming their ratios also continue to hold.

With 16 counties (out of 100, I think), Trump would get an additional 170,000 while Biden would get an additional 240,000.

My home county (I’m from PA) went blue but is completely surrounded by red - which surprises me as the culture is pretty similar all around the area: Dauphin County includes Harrisburg, but people commute all around the area. Though I really shouldn’t be that surprised: two of the most jaw-droppingly “I refuse to think” encounters I’ve ever had with Chump-fans were from high school classmates:

  1. Person from my neighborhood pronounced on Facebook that hospitals were deliberately diagnosing patients with COVID because it got them more money (false, based on a wackjob statement, explained by a more rational person who talked about Medicare reimbursement groups). I found cites. She said “I don’t care. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire”.

  2. Right after the last election, a fellow said he voted for Trump because Hilary put up with her husband’s philandering because he didn’t want his daughters to grow up thinking they should let their husbands treat them like that. Um… so instead, he voted for the philanderer, who was ON RECORD as saying he was allowed to grope women because he was rich. ???

Cleopatra wants her river back.

Yes, the party leader is called the Majority Leader even if his party only holds 50 seats.

In 2007, the Democrats had the majority, even though there were only 49 Democrats + 2 Independents. Harry Reid was the Majority Leader.

In 2001, the Senate was 50-50 from January until June, and since Bush was the president, Strom Thurmond /(R/) was Majority Leader. Then Jim Jeffords switched from Republican to Independent – caucusing with the D’s – and the “majority” switched. Robert Byrd (D) became Majority Leader.

Thank you! (ends silly tangent)

Yeah, they’re going to have to walk a tightrope here. Basically, nobody is going to be rooting for heart disease to work its magic more than the Republican party with Trump outside their tent pissing in.

It seems to me that people who complain about Nate Silver generally don’t know what he says or how he does what he does. He is incredibly cautious in interpreting the polls. He is transparent about where and how his models could go wrong, and then publishes where and how they did go wrong.

If people want to complain about polling or punditry in general, please go ahead. Just pick someone else as your example.

It’s like people who complained about Hillary pushing gay marriage and abortion, not realizing she mostly talked about jobs, jobs, and jobs.

I always learn so much when urbanredneck posts because all the people that know what they’re talking about come, with receipts, to correct them. I hope they never get so tired of being wrong that they stop posting.