Gonna stick my neck out and say Biden will win PA by 90k
I have no idea by how much, but I’ve become convinced by those who know the details better than me than Biden will, indeed, pick up PA. AP and Fox may have stuck their necks out a bit by calling AZ for Biden early on, but I’m hopeful he gets that and NV, putting him comfortably over the top. If the lead in GA holds, that’s a bonus (at this moment, Biden’s lead has grown slightly to almost 1100). An even bigger bonus would be if the short-tempered Orange Peril bursts a blood vessel, and turns even more orange than usual. He’s already lost his mind with the lies he’s spouting. He did warn everybody earlier that he doesn’t take well to losing. I suspect the shitshow has only just begun.
Trump did add three Trumpians to the Supreme Court, but none of the lawsuits he is filing now against several states have basis in fact. Some state-level judges will it them completely, others will listen to them and THEN reject them. I served as an election worker on Tuesday — I know how carefully and thoroughly we do things.
In any case, it won’t come down to just 200 votes in one state, as happened in 2000, so the Supreme Court won’t need to get involved in “when do we stop doing recounts” — which is a different issue than the false claims Trump is making through his frivolous lawsuits today.
(I doubt there will be recounts this time. because Biden will have won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona by more than 20,000 votes each — far too many to have any chance of “flipping” via a recount).
That looks…pretty far out to me.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding things, but if I’m not, Biden’s going to have a hard time winning 108,000 of the 50,000 outstanding votes.
Edit: I took a single sip of coffee and woke up enough to see that Schmidt was talking about Philadelphia County, not the entire state. My bad!
538, twenty minutes ago:
“Thus, all 
are really on Pennsylvania . Trump’s lead is down to about 18,000 votes in the Keystone State with about 95 percent of the expected vote in. That leaves about 160,000 votes still to be counted.”
I do agree that Biden +90K is nearly impossible. It will be more like 20K, just like in Wisconsin.
Edit — I see your edit — all good! And maybe the final tally will be somewhere in between — say, around +50,000 Biden.
I’m no mathmagician, or sser of the future, but if Biden is down 18k votes in Pa. with 160k yet to be counted…
I’m hopeful; I’ll leave it at that.
See you’s after work.
This is why they need to ramp up the counting and at least try to make an initial call today. The longer this remains undetermined, the easier it is for fake news to be perceived as real and it encourages more of the same shit from Trump enablers
Get your shit together PA, GA, NV, and AZ.
Biden may win by anywhere from 50-75K if the remaining count is in mostly Dem strongholds
All good - it’s very early!
I’m assuming about 215k left for my 90k prediction to hold. if it is 160k left then he’ll win by something closer to 60k.
Dude, these people are basically volunteers, who have been working grueling hours for days. The volume of mail in votes is just a whole new ballpark, and the infrastructure, the procedures, are just not up to the volume.
What do Poll workers make in Pennsylvania? I don’t know, but it’s not much, and they are sitting in a crowded room in the middle of a pandemic counting votes while armed men in Hummers buzz into town looking to shoot them up; they are working as quickly as they can while still checking every box on a long check list for every ballot. They are already being called liars and cheaters in the media; they have observers watching them every minute, eager to make a literal Federal Case out of any mistake.
I get your frustration. But I don’t think this can be pinned on the people trying to make this work. They are doing something I wouldn’t be willing to do, frankly.
Whether or not a recount will help Trump, he will ask them to be done and they will have to do them if the counts are close enough, like may well be the case in the Georgia, at least, where a 0.5% difference allows a recount request, which the campaign doesn’t even have to pay for.
Well, “request” is the operative word. Here in Wisconsin, at least, there is no automatic obligation to grant such a request.
I’m not sure who makes that call. Our governor is a Democrat, but our legislature is majority Republican.
I suppose the governor could grant the request out of a generous, unifying, conspiracy-theory-squashing spirit, but I doubt it. Expensive, time consuming, and pointless.
Ah right, I guess they all could refuse any recount request. Don’t know if that would be wise if they are Republican governor (especially with a Republican legislature), if that is the case somewhere.
Good question. Anyone know about the rules (and likely outcome) for recount requests in Georgia? (And possibly Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Nevada, but those are likely to be truly futile, mathematically.)
Georgia law gives the losing candidate the right to a recount if the margin of defeat is within half of a percent of the total vote Cite
.
Thanks. So, a recount is guaranteed in Georgia, IF “flipping” it to Trump would give Trump the big win…which it WON’T, if Biden wins PA (assuming Biden also wins NV)…right?
Could Trump force GA to do a recount before NV (or even PA) has officially declared a winner there? If so, I guess GA could just stop their useless recount, as soon as NV finally declares for Biden. Or would they be obligated to finish the “job”?
When I said “bullshit,” I was mostly referring to the flat-out, easily refuted lying. But yeah, agreed.
Completely not surprised by this. My in-laws are all in rural Ohio including the counties with the highest rates of Covid in the state. They all voted Trump. They all are anti-mask for Freedom and Liberty. They all believed that on Nov 4th all the Democrats would stop talking about Covid completely. They all believe everything Trump says about Covid. That they all personally know people who have died from Covid has not made even a small dent in their faith.
Wisconsin – after 2016 (in which Jill Stein requested and paid for a recount), the rules changed.
If the margin is > 1% no recount (which was delicious irony as then Scott Walker lost in 2018 by 1.1%)
From .25 to 1% recount can be requested and paid for by the requester (refunded if the result changes)
Below .25% the state pays (but still must be requested)
(there are different rules for races with less than 4000 votes)
Brian