32% of the vote in and Biden is up by 22 points.
TX is back in Biden’s court by a 33,000 vote margin with 69% in.
I’m in NC, and our Senate race is making me nervous. I’m so sick of Tillis. Our race for governor is a bit more promising.
He can only win at silliest possible name. 
NYT is pretty negative about Biden’s chances at this point.
I’m still not feeling defeatist yet, but I am a bit sad that a Trump trouncing seems pretty sure to not be in the cards. If he loses it might be as close as 2016.
Yes Biden does seem to be outperforming Hillary pretty much everywhere in Ohio. However that may partly be because the mail-in ballots were counted first. My guess is that he will lose Ohio but by several points less than Hillary. If he can similarly outperform her by a few points in next-door PA that will be enough to win there and probably the whole thing.
I think we can safely rule out a Biden landslide. Beyond that it’s hard to know what’s happening. My subjective probability of a Trump win has increased from around about 8% to 25% .
Okay, deep breath. NC is indeed getting tighter. The fear is that it gets close enough for lawsuits and perhaps Trump wins outright
I suspect that the counties showing 0 absentee ballots don’t distinguish between them. So those probably are also significantly weighted toward absentee.
That’s disturbing, because NC was the state that gave Biden 276 EVs in my electoral map.
If you’re watching the NYT needle, ignore that. Agent Orange barely won here last time. It’ll be tight again, just hard to say which way. And remember we can count late votes here too.
This is not good.
To confirm: VA’s been called blue?
CNN gives CO to Biden, ND to Loser.
Yes it has.
Early results in Michigan look extremely bad for Biden. Still might be too early to tell but the spread in Genesee County is truly alarming.
Awesome - good to hear.
To Whack-A-Mole, not to the Michigan news.
Our west coast 55 EVs are coming soon…
My husband was born and raised in Genesee County, in the rich snobs area. But I’d be surprised if Flint didn’t shape the outcome there.
It should not be this close.
Holy shit, I’m freaking out.
Biden may win but the Democrats will have to reckon with Midwestern communities of color. I think the assumption was that Hillary’s lack of popularity was a one-off. It might not be