Big tranche of Delaware County came in and now Trump is only up 212k in PA. 87% is in and the “per percent” margin is now 35k for Biden. Still tracking to a 150-200k Biden victory.
The “crossover” point should happen around 6% from now, so at 93% reported if you want another number to track towards.
I’m getting ready to sing, ding dong the witch is dead.
That’s about what I’m seeing too. But keep in mind, this all depends on the 87% number being accurate. There is a lot of uncertainty there. If there are a lot fewer ballots than they think, there won’t be enough for Biden to make up that 212K.
Thank you! This will give me an interesting history lesson for tomorrow.
How can Nevada not track absentee ballots? If they don’t track receipt of absentee ballots, what stops someone from voting twice—by absentee ballot as well as by voting in person?
Do you like historical novels? Gore Vidal’s 1876 is partially about that election
Can we watch his toes curl up and go under Dorothy’s house?
Maybe I was a bit loose in my phrasing.
What I meant was they don’t seem to have any way to know for sure how many possible absentee votes are outstanding. I mean, they could easily dig into their database and figure it out, but the guy being interviewed seemed to think that was a crazy request.
His more cogent point was that you don’t really know who might have decided to return it at the last minute. And since they can still accept ballots for awhile, the basic question “how many votes are left to count?” is unanswerable.
Great! I will check at the library.
He has 7 in all, I’ve read 4, all very good
Well, maybe they only had access to a few machines?
Crossing? That might be his drowning in the Rubicon moment.
Of course, it would be just the latest such moment. Remember when going after those Gold Star parents was supposed to sink his chances? I think Trump’s empty head must be acting as a flotation device.
Absolutely true. I think I sort of validated the numbers a bit earlier today when the AG of PA was on CNN (or maybe it was someone else) saying they were about 50% done with the mail-ins. At that point the numbers all seemed to check out.
That said, it could certainly be off.
The second-level check, IMO, is the county cross-check against 2016. Fully reported counties are almost uniformly running at least 2% worse for Trump than in 2016. That should be enough, unless there are some really nasty surprises in the mail-ins.
After looking this up, I’ll answer my own question. They do in fact keep track of absentee ballots, at least in Clark County, Nevada.
Something must have gotten lost in translation during that interview.
I voted for him a number of times.
Here’s what 538 had to say in their piece on when to expect results in each state. (Linked a couple of times already.)
You can look in the same place to see what they say about PA. It’s a very big state, and had lots of mail-in ballots, which they were not allowed to start processing until election day. Processing means verifying signatures and stripping off the outer envelopes, then stripping off secrecy envelopes and preparing for counting, plus, then, counting. They also now have a court order allowing ballots to be received until the 6th, and those ballots and counts have to be segregated. 538 has said for a while that it might be a week before there’s a result there.
It’s frustrating, to be certain, but that kind of local autonomy is what has kept meddlers, (including a president like Trump himself), from having the ability to broadly manipulate things. Imagine if Trump had the power to dictate to all county/state election systems how they work.
The house refused to do the scene. So did the stunt double. And the computer seized up rather than do the CGI.
Thanks for this. It helps explain why James Carville has seemed so certain that Biden was going to win PA by 100K votes.
Meanwhile RealClearPolitics has it still 227-214, not adjudicating AZ, WI or MI.
Hmm, seems CNN is denying Donnie the loose Maine district?