Not to question the genius of Roosh, but we totally did this in C1.
I’m kind of on the fence with the pedescribe lynch. I think I sort of agree with Oredigger. If pedescribe isn’t the Vigilante, then the real Vigilante can kill him Tonight. There are issues with this idea in that 0 or 2 Vigs in the game really mess things up, but as there were 0 Vigs in C1, I’m sort of thinking there is either 0 or 1 Vigs in C2.
So while letting pedescribe live to use his killing power another night isn’t such a hot idea, there really isn’t too much danger in letting pedescribe kill one more time. It is more probable at this early stage of the game for pedescribe to cross kill, and Town needs cross kills to win.
Having said that, I’d also be fine with lynching pedescribe. I just acknowledge that there are advantages to letting pedescribe live and hopefully get Vigged.
The whole Oredigger thing has me going Gah! again. I can’t believe Oredigger is getting as much heat as he is for his idea. If anything, Oredigger’s actions make me think Town. While there are many arguments against letting pedescribe live longer, there exist a non-zero number of reasons to let pedescribe survive Day Two.
Also, how in the world can people look at Oredigger’s actions and conclude scum? Scum would be crazy to propose what Oredigger just did. If pedescribe is not on the same scum team as Oredigger, why take the risk? What is the reward? Nothing! If pedescribe and Oredigger are on the same team then what benefit is there to give up Oredigger in addition to pedescribe? Why would pedescribe be so important to Oredigger that Oredigger would essentially give himself up for pedescribe. There isn’t anything in the published ruleset that would indicate this behavior. If Wolves, pedescribe must be expendable since they selected him to do the killing.
The only thing I can think up is if both are Cabalists and pedescribe holds the power to kill and he alone can do it. Still, the risks of losing both Oredigger and pedescribe in this hypothetical situation is too great for such a move. I’d say that Oredigger remaining under the radar is more valuable than a hypothetical night kill.
The case for Oredigger being town is much simpler. Oredigger said what he said because he is Town and he thinks it is a good idea.
I’ll also point out that the notion that “contradiction equates to scum” is ridiculous. Who says that Townies have to be consistent? While they may try to be consistent, we as human beings are hypocritical and inconsistent beings. Also the purported inconsistency isn’t even inconsistent in my mind. Oredigger called out Pollux Oil for not wanting to lynch scum as “too easy,” which is entirely different from what Oredigger said which is not to lynch pedescribe based on strategy. Disagree with the strategy if you want to, but to conflate what Oredigger denounced with what Oredigger wants to do is way off in my mind.
I’ll even further my pro-let-pedescribe-kill-again idea with the crazy notion that what is even more important to town are early kills. Early kills mean more information sooner. There are downsides to any plan, but the Town is being particularly one-sided on this one. Killing pedescribe now isn’t a wrong move by any means; but the hostility to alternative ideas is troubling.
“Why hello, sachertorte, how are you this morning?”
“I’m doing very well, my good friend sachertorte, just spending the morning poking at the gerbils.”
“Ah, any new discoveries?”
“I think Oredigger is a Vigilante and wants pedescribe to make it to the Night so that he can kill him.”
“Why on earth would he want to do that when they could just lynch the bugger now?”
“Don’t know for sure, but a wise man once told me that roles tend to view the world through the prism of their own role. I think it possible that a Vig, with a death penalty, would grow weary of town lynching found scum leaving him nothing to do at Night. By pushing for pedescribe to live into the Night, that sets up the Vig to kill pedescribe. But he doesn’t want to outwardly say this, so he points out other, weaker, reasons.”
“Gerbils are strange creatures.”
“Yes, and they keep killing each other.”
Insightful analysis again, sach.
I think the players are showing the typical bandwagon phenomenon. Strong evidence gets hyped up into certainty and anyone who deviates from the groupthink becomes a target. Part of this is Townies getting caught up in the fervor. And part of it is scum using the momentum for their own purposes.
And it’s why story should have waited to reveal. I think he actually got caught up in the “I have shiny new information” excitement. He should have at least waited until Nanook announced his information, to watch for reactions to it.
Sorry, sach, I can barely keep up with the game I’m playing in, let alone Conspiracy.
And I’ve got perfect info, so I don’t want to say too much here so that I don’t inadvertantly slip.
(e.g. In Batman after I was killed off and got access to the spoiler boards, I made a comment in the Peanut Gallery on what the situation with the godfather was. My point was based on already established information, so that wasn’t the problem, however, rather than say “Godfather” I actually called him out by name. It wasn’t until a few hours later that I realized this. Odd thing was, no one in the peanut gallery noticed, even the Diomedes (moderator) who posted after I did.)
But I will say that Sachertorte’s analysis is well done, regardless of how right or wrong he is. I would disagree with Oredigger’s stance even if he was vig, but for town to think that he’s being scummy is quite a leap. Oredigger’s point is valid, though, I don’t think the best strategy for town. But to parrot a common mantra: Bad strategy is not necessarily pro-scum. It may be anti-town, but everyone acts anti-town at some point.
And there are a couple players that I really want to slap with a fish right now, but I won’t say any more until more info is revealed.
And now pedescribe has voted for Santo Rugger for being too quiet. Only problem is, Santo Rugger is dead. So either pedescribe is not giving this game as much attention as he really ought to, or pedescribe is trying a desperate tactic perhaps in the hopes of appearing stupid and harmless.
Kudos to story for coming to Oredigger’s defense. It’s about time someone with a cooler head quiets down the mob.
Oredigger’s strategy is a null tell, just as story said. It’s bad strategy regardless of whether one is town or scum.
Actually I think it is a Town tell, not a null tell. It is not merely “bad strategy” but a strategy that scum simply would not adopt. At some point in the future scum might enact a bad strategy ploy to look town, but that won’t work until Town starts accepting “bad strategy” as a town tell, which they haven’t yet, so it’s still a Town Tell.
Am I making sense?
I understand what you’re saying, sach, but personally I’m very wary about giving pro-Town points for bad play. It just feels like that’s making life too easy on the scum.
In a way. But “scum wouldn’t do that” only works as long as scum hasn’t figured out that town will always assume that scum won’t do it. Then they start doing it.
So really, anything that isn’t strategically advantageously to scum (from their point of view, whether or not it is actually good strategy) is a null tell, IMO.
There is no strategic advantage to scum to do what Oredigger is doing. Pedescribe is going to swing eventually. If he’s an undead, there’s no way Oredigger would know he’s on his team. If he’s a wolf, there are likely more wolves than just one, so losing one doesn’t damn the wolves. If he’s cabal, unless pedescribe is the only one with the cabal’s secret power (since, like wolves, there is unlikely to be just one if they exist), and that in itself is a 1 out of 31 chance if and only if the cabal secret power is held by one person. Which means, since there’s a chance that the secret power is held by the group, the chance becomes even less.
So from an unspoiled perspective, there is no strategic gain for scum to do this, and it’s patently obvious that this is so.
You don’t even have to have a power role to figure that one out, since it relies on no more info than the setup as described, so I can’t fathom why town was getting their undies in a wad over the whole thing, to the point that they were actually considering a vote on oredigger toMorrow for it.
Since I missed the edit window, here’s a better explanation of what I’m getting at:
In a way. But “scum wouldn’t do that” only works as long as scum hasn’t figured out that town will always assume that scum won’t do it. Then they start doing it.
So really, anything that isn’t strategically advantageously to scum (from their point of view, whether or not it is actually good strategy) is a null tell, IMO.
There is no strategic advantage to scum to do what Oredigger is doing. Pedescribe is going to swing eventually. If he’s an undead, there’s no way Oredigger would know he’s on his team, barring Oredigger having an undead secret power of investigation. If he’s a wolf or cabal, there are likely more wolves/cabal than just two, so losing one doesn’t damn the wolves/cabal. Plus, if there are only two, exposing both is suicide.
And in regards to the possibility of a secret power being held by only one person, there is a 1 out of 31 chance of that happening if and only if the secret power is indeed held by one person. Which means, since there’s a chance that the secret power is held by the group, the chance becomes even less than that.
So from an unspoiled perspective, there is no strategic gain for scum to do this aside from saving a secret power, and it’s patently obvious that this is so. And the chance of the secret power being held by one person is something less than 3% or so. (Yes I know the chance of any secret power being held by any one person is more than this, but once you limit it to one person in particular, you have narrowed your field of options.)
You don’t even have to have a power role to figure all this out, since it relies on no more info than the setup as described, so I can’t fathom why town was getting their undies in a wad over the whole thing, to the point that they were actually considering a vote on oredigger toMorrow for it.
I wouldn’t necessarily classify Oredigger’s idea as bad play. I may not agree with the stance, but the reasoning behind it isn’t terrible by any means. Letting pedescribe live so that someone else might kill him is a tangible Town advantage. Letting pedescribe possibly die on his own should NBC turn up Town is a tangible Town advantage. The only issue is that the risks may outweigh these benefits. The risk is, pedescribe might kill a pro-town power role (A Witch, Oh No!), but what Town doesn’t take into account is that pedescribe might also take out scum, maybe even the Necromancer, or a Wolf. This mitigates the risk somewhat, but Town is not willing to take chances. Taking a calculated risk is not the same thing as bad play.
I understand why one would think this way; however, the reality is scum don’t work that way. Right now, in the continuum of Mafia games, Town has and always has had a tendency to lynch/ threaten to lynch vocal players, players with odd ideas, or those who buck the majority trend. Intellectually one would think that scum would go “A ha! I’ll just do these things that Town keeps doing and I’ll be safe!” But the issue is, Town has NEVER backed down from this kind of bad idea = scum stance.
Until a Townie successfully achieves Town status with the rest of the town due to a situation such as Oredigger’s, or CatInASuit’s or mine from Cecilvania, scum will not take the chance. The status quo is to lynch vocal players. Scum will not play the role of controversial townie until it is PROVEN to reduce lynch heat. Essentially what I’m saying is:
Being controversial has to save a Townie first.
Then scum playing controversial becomes a plausible strategy.
Any scum who tries to “look Town” by being controversial will only fool me and get himself lynched by the status quo.
This is precisely my point. There is no strategic advantage for a scummy Oredigger to do what he just did. In fact, it is clearly a strategic disadvantage.
On the flip-side, A Town Oredigger saying what he said makes perfect sense; he says these things because he believes in them.
Therefore, the interaction demonstrates behavior that would be avoided by scum, but plausibly spoken by Town. Therefore, Oredigger is Town.
The less charitable way of expressing Town’s tendency is:
“I don’t understand X, therefore X is scum.”
Which is a logical fallacy.
And the next week is going to be boring.
The lynch of pedescribe is probably a good one. While investigating the possibility of getting pedescribe nightkilled by the Vig is a nice idea. Settling into a lynch and shutting up might be good for the Town, since avoiding further roleclaims will make Night Actions easier for the Town.
pedescribe is not a Cabalist. The Cabal can talk anytime during the Day or Night. I have a hard time believing that a group of communicating players would let pedescribe’s claim go through in its current state.
Pedescribe is either Undead or Wolf. Killing him is optimal at this point.
I’ve decided that pedescribe is trying desperately to remain the main focus of attention for as long as possible. Possibly, but not neccessarily, to aid teammates.
Of course, it didn’t help his credibility that he claimed they thought CatInASuit was vampire which really was his role last time.
Interesting. I’ve come to a different conclusion.
I don’t think pedescribe needed to do anything to keep the focus on him. While there was some discussion of Oredigger, I don’t see any of pedescribe’s teammates in danger of being outed Today.
Furthermore, the construction of pedescribe’s role-claim has two suspicious elements:
- pedescribe could kill last Night, but can not kill again
- If pedescribe dies, a new Cabalist gains a one-shot nightkill ability
Both of these elements have a “Don’t lynch me” element to them. The first makes pedescribe innocuous (no longer a threat to kill). The second goes even further as it sets up a penalty to the Town for killing pedescribe. These elements seem transparent to me as attempts to avoid lynch.
Furthermore scum lie.