Why do you say that?
Interesting that pedescribe was a wolf. It was clear that he wasn’t a Cabalist at the time, and I drew the conclusion that he was a Vampire based on the number of nightkills from before. That means we’re back up to 3 attempts with 2 overlap/blocks/protects. I guess that two decided Nanook is telling the truth and took a shot at him, yielding a protection and overlap. So the First Night the killers all were thinking, some one else will take a shot at Nanook. And on the Second Night, Two decided to take a shot at Nanook. I guess each Night Killer might need to try and kill Nanook once to see if the protection is there. Witches are a threat to all scum.
Anyway, the Undead are looking to be in a strong position (at least so far).
Hopefully Redwing will not fall into the same faction as CoG. It would be terrible if Town lost two players to modkill. Kind of ruins the game for everyone else. I didn’t even notice there was a Redwing playing the game!
I’m interested in seeing what DiggitCamara will say. He can’t possibly roll over like pedescribe and Diomedes did again… making for another boring Day. He should probably claim something like Mason, or Seer or something unlynchable just to make things more interesting. 'Cause, you know, that’s the most important thing… entertaining me.
My read on CatInASuit is that he is telling the Truth (which makes me really wonder why the Wolves haven’t successfully killed him). I felt CatInASuit was Town based on Day One positions and “sticking of the neck out.” Furthermore, the offering of DiggitCamara as Roosh’s killer does well to give credibility to CatInASuit. A Scummy CatInASuit could have offered another Vampire reading without too much heat. There was only one kill and there isn’t much else to offer, so Town should buy it. The difficulty is of course the existence of a real Detective who would have also investigated Roosh’s body (no other choice). If CatInASuit were scum, then getting the read on Roosh wrong would have exposed him to any real Detectives who must have investigated Roosh’s murder. Anyway, long story short, the plausibility of CatInASuit being scum is quite thin. If he is, then bravo… good show! Of course this assumes no one decides to counterclaim CatInASuit’s Roosh results (Which I kinda hope happens).
ETA: pedescribe being a Wolf and storyteller saying he killed NBC semi-verifies CatInASuit’s Vampire reading of brewha. Presumably CatInASuit would have gotten a non-Wolf result on SantoRugger too.
Oh! The Wolves should have known immediately that CatInASuit wasn’t going to get a result from investigating Day One. Their killer, pedescibe, was already dead. Even if CatInASuit went bonkers and investigated NBC, the Wolves wouldn’t care (actually, they would love it).
I’d look at Day Two and look for people suspicious of CatInASuit. Did anyone try and get CatInASuit lynched early on Day Two?
Geez, Why did the Wolves kill Roosh instead of CatInASuit? Very very interesting…
Will the Wolves try and take out CatInASuit Tonight? (obviously DiggitCamara would do the killing again). Or are their numbers so big that they feel they can handle the occasional Detective investigation?
I’m a little amused by how well Nanook seems to think the game is going at this point (and at someone who I don’t remember who wonders what will happen when the easy lynches dry up) because I think that unless there are some scum crosskills at Night, I don’t think lynching scum every Day is enough to enable a Town win–especially with 3 townies dead already.
(I’ll admit it-- I have only the vaguest of notions of how many scum and how many townies there are, but with so many scum factions, it makes sense if total scum outnumber the town at various points in the game).
Agreed. Town could have lynched perfectly in Conspiracy 1 and still lost. I’m wondering if the Town isn’t making a big strategic mistake by lynching the gimmes instead of delegating them to the Vig.
You’ve hit upon one of my balancing problems: should the Town win if they always lynch scum? I decided that it does not. If they could win by lynching alone, scum cross-kills would make it too easy for them to win. So, the Town needs some number of pro-Town Night kills.
At this point, every but one faction still has a decent shot at winning. The losing faction (who probably don’t even realize it yet) has a chance, but will need a lot of luck.
There’s a part of me that thinks that it’s kind of unkind to Town for them to be able to lynch perfectly and lose by bad luck or the collusion of scum factions.
On the other hand, that very interplay between scum factions and the issue of whether a particular player is playing for a Scum win or for his/her Faction to win and particularily the issue of which scum is most important to be lynched at any given moment is part of what made the first Conspiracy so much fun to read–especially when CatInASuit had claimed Necromancer with a Bomb and no one was quite sure whether to believe him–either about the necromancy or about the Bomb. And then he proved to be a relatively harmless vampire.
My inclination is that the Undead are the prime faction that could get screwed early. Once the Necromancer is dead, the chances of the Undead winning is remote. The only problem I have with this theory is that there was no notification of Zombies disappearing. As Rysto said, the Cabal and Wolves are well aware of their numbers and would therefore be aware if the chances of winning had declined so sharply.
Town doesn’t seem to be in too much trouble either, so far we have 2 dead Cabalists, a Dead Wolf, 2 dead Town, 1 modkilled Town. Unknowns are Squid, Redwing, and Roosh. Squid is not Town, Redwing and Roosh could be Town, so worst case is 5 of 9 dead players are Town, which should not be a game breaker. I guess the Worst-worst case would be if Santo Rugger and Roosh are Witches, which would very much hurt the Town.
My guess is we have a dead Necromancer.
I’m intrigued by MHayes’s discussion about a Vigilante suicide. What’s the point? I guess there really isn’t much to discuss so any discussion has a certain amount of automatic relevance, but what made MHaye think about Vigilante suicides? I suppose he might have just thought about it, then babbled about it because that’s what he was thinking about (I think this is most likely), but I wonder if there could be more. It is Night, and the danger/expectation is that a Vig might need to self-target. I wonder if MHaye is fishing for an in danger Vig to claim. Not that it really matters either way, I’m just wondering.
A Ha! Now that you say that, I remember that we got notification of zombie destruction in C1 because the game ended with the Necromancer’s lynch (well, it was effectively over at that point).
I will be very interested to see if any new Zombies pop up at Dawn. That will be a good indicator of whether or not the Necromancer is still alive. It can prove life, but can only hint at deadness. If no zombies show up, I’ll be pretty certain that the Necromancer is dead. Of 9 dead bodies to choose from, 1 is a zombie, 1 is known to be blessed, and 2 will be randombly blessed. So that’s a 5 in 7 chance of creating a new Zombie.
I am officially tired of posts that include some varient on “voting in order to prevent a modkill”. Ok, I get that if one doesn’t vote, one gets modkilled, and one doesn’t want to risk that happening unneccessarily. But honestly, there’s 44 hours or so left before deadline (unless I’ve miscalculated) and inumerable posts blaming a potentially ill-thought out vote on concerns about the deadline.
Of course, as far as I can tell, there’s also a lot more ambivalence about killing the most obvious target (Diggit Camera, I think) or not so maybe it’s understandable–and I’m more willing than many posters seem to be to understand that not everyone can be at their keyboard at the same time, but. . . as far as I’m concerned, one should only blame fear of the mod for one’s vote in the last 12 hours or so before deadline. Otherwise blame need to stir discussion or something, please. Or just vote, and give reasons.
Yeah. I was hoping the vote or die rule would encourage more substantive posts. But at least the rule gives a bright line for me to mod-kill non-participants.
I see that several players have figured out that always lynching scum isn’t enough for the Town to win. Along that line of thought, I think with the information available, the Town should not lynch Diggit. His claim will be tested soon enough. Hmm, now I need to check if those pushing for the Diggit lynch are scum or not.
Part of me thinks that a wolf in the hand is worth two undead in the bush, and so would prefer to see Diggit lynched unless a stronger alternative candidate comes up than has been mentioned so far.
On the other hand, if scum outnumber town, and wolves are the most prevalent scum, then the odds aren’t that bad for the town if an alternative candidate is picked at random–not that I’ll be around to see the results for awhile.
My thinking was that unless CiaS is a Wolf, they’re going to be gunning for him, which is why I enchanted him on Night 1. I kinda got blindsided, wasn’t expecting to get attacked so soon!
I just noticed that I could have come in here after my side was announced (even though I was 99.9% sure there wasn’t another WD who protected me), so sorry for being late to the show. This game seems like it’s going to get very interesting pretty soon.
I don’t see the problem in lynching DiggitCamara. I understand the desire to lynch an undead, but without a case being made, there really isn’t a good reason to lynch anyone else but DiggitCamara. In C1 we were faced with a choice of lynching an undead or a Wolf, the Town decided on lynching the Wolf because by lynching the Wolf, the Wolves would need to choose someone else to do the Nightkillings, thereby making the Detective more useful. (I argued against this reasoning as I felt killing undead was more important and I didn’t think the Detective would live long enough to get another investigation). Anyway, no one seems to have brought up the benefit of killing DiggitCamara to give the claimed-Detective another shot at a reading. I’m sort of surprised by this. I can see skeptcism if they don’t believe CatInASuit, but the statement should at least be brought up. And Detectives are more powerful in this game since they can reveal investigations at Night. Kill off DiggitCamara, and CatInASuit would only have to survive one night to get another shot at investigation. Plus that makes him prime Wolf chow… wolf chow that should be targeted by any and all warlocks.
On the other hand, I’m sure any and all Vigs would be happy to take out DiggitCamara at night for the Town, which I think is the most compelling reason to not lynch DiggitCamara.
Of course CatInASuit might not be the Detective, but I really don’t think that is the case.
I mean if they don’t lynch DiggitCamara, then who do they think they will lynch?
How’s this for a scenario: CiaS is a Witch. The Witches have a secret power to send a message to one ROLE each Night. They sent a msg to a VIG, and got “returned to sender”. They sent a message to the Detective telling them not to counterclaim. Interesting…