Now that we’re 15 episodes into the season, some of us have some ideas of how certain things will work out.
This does not replace the questions thread, as that one has no spoilers. This is future speculation with possible spoilers.
But not in the first post! (mouseover preview) 
My biggest speculation is something you’ve already heard me say many times, and maybe are sick of hearing, but here it goes:
The Island is wish fulfillment. Not all wishes are good, or even conscious. So, both Locke’s walking and the TCM are part of the same phenomena.
Redemption seems to be a major feature of everyone’s back story.
Walt’s uncanny luck may be the key to all of this.
Dead Pool:
Sawyer - after having proven himself the most honorable one there.
Boone - they’re setting us up for this, so I don’t think so.
Charlie - same as Boone.
Claire - This is the one I think is going to bite it. During child birth.
(I’ve just recently caught up with all of the Lost episodes, so I’m sorry if this has all been hashed over or debunked already.)
I think the Island is a gaming ground. It’s not a dream, or the afterlife. The survivors are players in the Good v. Evil battle.
I think this because much mention has been made of the Black Rock. Adam and Eve had black and white stones. Locke has black and white stones from the Backgammon game, and explained to Walt that they represented “dark” and “light”.
So, the Island is pretty much a huge Backgammon game, with the people picking which side they want to be on. Current occupants of the island (Ethan, Danielle) are leftovers from previous rounds, having killed most (or all) of their survivors. The Island (or the forces behind the Island) gives some players what they want as an enticement to join a particular side. Locke seems to be a valuable player for either side, and I bet his new-found mobility will be taken away if he refuses to play along with the side that granted it.
I still haven’t figured out how one side “wins” a game like that, though. Maybe Claire’s baby has to decide, which is why it was so important for Claire to raise it, and why Ethan was itching to get her back?
Agreed. At first, I thought everyone had killed/caused the death of someone, but various flashbacks have downgraded that to generic guilt.
I think it’ll be a key, but not the key. It’s certainly important, since they’ve spent so much time on it, but I think it’ll be more of an ace-in-the-hole thing.
Dead Pool:
Sawyer - my money’s on him, as the most likely candidate for Noble Death of Redemption
Michael - another good candidate for Noble Death of Redemption, especially if he doing so saves Walt, thereby proving his love for the boy
Claire - not likely, since the psychic said she’s the only hope of the baby turning out good
Certain to survive
Jack and Kate - Unfortunately (as I think they’re both pretty dull) I don’t think the show is gutsy enough to kill off one of its two main characters in the first season. Plus there’s that whole pesky will-they-won’t-they thing.
Locke - There’s a lot going on between him and the island that surely can’t be explained away by the end of the season
Claire - If the psychic in her flashback is to be believed, she and her baby are both very important.
Walt - Like Locke, has a mystery surrounding him that probably won’t be explained before the end of the season.
Almost certain to survive
Michael - By extension from Walt. Walt will need his dad around to guide him for a while yet.
Charlie - Let’s face it, the Hobbit brings in a lot of viewers and there’s the potential for a lot of character development between him and Claire.
Sawyer - Every show needs its bad guy. The love triangle with Kate and Jack only makes it more interesting.
Sayid - Probably the most interesting character in the show. Potential for lots of development.
Sun - Purely on the fact that the writers wrote the character especially for her. Potential for development with both Jin and Michael.
May not survive
Jin - Without any knowledge of English, his character will go nowhere. I’m one of those who thinks he can speak it though.
Hurley - Ripe for development, but doesn’t seem to be anything more than comic relief so far.
Shannon - Doesn’t bring much to the group beyond someone for Sayid to potentially bump uglies with.
Boone - Whiny and also doesn’t bring much to the group. Probably too obvious though.
Having typed all that out, all of my Most Likely To Kick The Bucket picks are way too obvious. I’m not at all happy about it, but I get the impression that they’re setting Charlie up for the great fall.
I think people overestimate the viewership of the LOTR fans. I really doubt the numbers are at all significant. (And as for me, I identify him first as Geoffrey Shawcross from Hetty Wainthropp Investigates.)
I’d say the odds are that Jin or Charlie bites it. Jin because it would open the door for a relationship between Sun and Walt’s dad, Charlie because Dominic Monaghan might want to move on to further film work.
I don’t think they’ll kill Michael - whacking the black guy first is just TOO cliche!
As for my WAGs: Some of the action will move off the island. Crazy French Lady’s must have had a reason to put the lyrics to “Somewhere Over the Sea” on her map to Mysterious Location (probably the Black Rock). Locke’s group will make it to Mysterious Location (which will turn out to be the headquarters of Ethan’s friends) via the tunnel they discover under the hatch. However, since they manage to seal the hatch from the inside, the other group will have to chase them (since they kidnapped the baby or something like that) via Michael’s raft. I get 100 extra points if it turns out that the tail section of the plane crashed on the Mysterious Offshore Location, and there are a bunch of All-New Survivors there, including that one lady’s husband. Kind of like how they introduced new Thundercats after a few seasons.
According to the Lost Diary,
the diary author thinks they’re being stalked. They spent the night on the beach, they’re a diver… man or woman? Day 26. Scott? Steve?
(boxed just in case, since it’s early in the thread yet)
Remember, if you read this thread, you might find spoilers!
Charlie will bite it because the Producers won’t be able to afford him once all the other lead characters threaten the blue flu unless they receive big time raises.
Speculation:
Ethan is not evil. He and the French woman were the only members of the research team who were not killed or converted to The Others’s fanatical religion. The Others’ folklore prophesies that a child will one day come to the island and lead all the people off in a mass exodus. The leader of The Others freaks out because he doesn’t want everyone to leave. Hence he kills the French woman’s “child” and she subsequently goes bonkers.
Ethan is thus our only remaining sane person and as a renegade hero has been single handedly battling The Others for years. When he hears that a plane has crashed and a pregnant woman is on board, he waits until she is alone (or nearly alone) and kidnaps her in order to save her from The Others, who will certainly kill the child. Concerned only with Claire, he knocks Charlie out and leaves him in the woods. The Others make an appearance and Claire realizes that Ethan is trying to save her. They run off together. The Others take Charlie and string him up a tree.
Claire lives with Ethan until one day she is bonked on the head and loses her memory. Not realizing Ethan is trying to protect her, she escapes. Ethan attempts to kidnap her again, but Jack, Sayyid, etc. foil his plans and then Charlie shoots our resident hero (who has been kicking everyone’s ass with the tune of Kenny Loggins’ “Danger Zone” playing in his head) deader than a doornail. RATS!
In a few weeks, Claire will give birth in a cave with a bunch of men, none of whom are the father of her baby, and surrounded by ox…er, polar bears and boars.
In the last episode, The Others will come in order to steal the baby. They pretend to be good guys, but Charlie sees them and remembers that it was they who strung him up. When they make off with her baby, Claire remembers that Ethan was trying to help her and tearfully attacks Charlie for killing her hero, Ethan, and her only realistic hope of recovering her baby. Charlie then commits suicide by jumping off a cliff into a fiery pit a la that dude from LOTR.
In the final moments of S1, we learn that the “child” in the prophesy was really Walter all along.
NCB, thanks for starting this thread.
I still say Shannen will buy it.
Other possibilities: Boone, Claire, Jin.
I don’t think I could take it if Hurley or Charlie were gone.
Ohgodohgod - I hope so!
But the one I actually put money on (I bet my husband a quarter) is Boone. No particular reason, really. I think he will die in some spectacularly “redeeming” way, like by taking a knife or a bullet for Locke. Or maybe even Shannon.
If you read the whole diary, it’s made pretty clear that the writer is a woman. I haven’t read the latest entry yet, but I like the fact that she’s got her own as-yet-unknown backstory, just like everybody else.
I believe the writer’s or producers said somewhere that they would kill off a much loved character.
In no particular order, here are my thoughts.
1&2) I think that rules out Boone and Shannon. Sure they have their fans but they also have many more who’d rather see them go. Neither fit into “loved” at this point unless they do some major redeeming on their characters very soon, some noble sacrifice or heroic deed. Frankly I think Shannon is less likeable than Boone. He has issues but he’s trying to be helpful now. Shannon has a long way to go.
Jin is often mentioned as well, but again he’s not well-loved yet. We don’t know his story yet, it’s possible he could win everyone over after his episode and then die but I don’t think so. I also don’t think the writers would kill off the husband just to free the wife up for a romance with Michael, it’s much more dramatic to have the tension of a possible triangle. If Jin dies the only obstacle for Sun is the fact that she may feel she needs to mourn her husband for a while and that’s intangible. Whereas three people giving each other meaningful looks, possible fights and clandestine meetings is much more tangible. However, I really don’t think they were trying to build up something between Sun and Michael. I think it was a red herring for now. Sun probably felt he was more trustworthy to approach because he had a child he was looking out for, plus he was pretty much the only one who could really help her free her husband at the time.
Sun: I think she is much loved but I think they probably have much more planned for her. I don’t think she’ll die, at least not this season.
Charlie: He is much loved, but now he has the angst of having killed someone to deal with, it gives his character a darker edge. So there’s more for his character to deal with and sink his acting chops into. I think they may let him play with this much longer than the drug withdrawl thing. They’ve already teased us with his death once so some may think he’s safe and the writers could pull a fast one and have him die permanently but I think it’s less likely than some others.
People are speculating that he may want to be free to leave to work in films. I’m guessing that he just loves having a job and he is not primarily a film star either so I doubt he looks down on television. He probably has some arrangements in his contract to allow time for films that may or may not come up.
Michael: I think many are just indifferent about him right now so I don’t think he’s much loved. Besides it seems rather cruel to orphan Walt at this point. I think we also have more to learn about Michael and Walt and Walt’s abilities and I think Michael will need to be around for that. Perhaps Michael has/had the same abilities or maybe it’s something that runs in the family? I don’t agree with the speccers who say that Locke wants control of Walt and wants Michael out of the way, if this were the case he had numerous opportunities to get him out of the way (“here you take this knife and distract the polar bear from outside the shelter of the tree roots and I’ll get the kid”), he’s also had plenty of opportunities to undermine Michael with Walt and he really hasn’t done that. When Michael said no to the Walt learning how to use a knife, Locke complied. Remember Locke let Michael be the hero with Walt by “finding” Vincent, he didn’t have to do that.
Walt: I don’t think they’ll kill off a kid either and as said above we need to learn more about his abilities.
Hurley: Here is a much loved character. I’d really hate to see him go, especially before learning too much more about him. He gets an episode in a couple weeks I think but I don’t think we’ll learn enough for him to be sacrificed. I think his character has more to do.
Sayid: He is much loved. He is also very helpful and useful to the Lostaways. I feel like we also need to learn more about him and he could have much more to do toward helping solve the Island mysteries. However his loss would hurt the Lostaways which would add to the drama. It’s possible he could start to show signs of the “illness” since he was likely “exposed” when he heard the voices in the jungle.
This is the actor I think might be more likely to want to leave for his film career.
Sawyer: Even though he’s a scamp he is a loved character, however at this point he’s not necessarily important to the Lostaways. In fact, his death at this point might be a relief to many who don’t trust of like him. Granted, I don’t think the writers specified whether the character to die was loved both by viewers and Lostaways, still I think in order to add drama the loss will have to be felt by the Lostaways as well and not just by the viewers. I agree with other spec that for Sawyer to die it will have to be doing some noble deed or sacrifice, possibly for Jack.
Kate: She’s sort of loved, not necessarily by me. I am getting annoyed with how the character can do anything and the guys fall all over themselves for her and forgive her anything. But I don’t think she’ll die. I’d really like to see her character fall, perhaps she will screw up and lead to the death of the character who does die? Maybe she does something that causes Sawyer to make the life or death choice which leads to his noble sacrifice? Or Jack dies because of another of her lies and she then feels so guilty she takes a vow of chasitity and silence and goes off to live by herself in the jungle?
Claire: At first I thought she was very likely to die, but now with all the psychic’s talk about her having to be the one to raise her baby I think she may be around a bit longer. Granted the “mystery” of what will happen if she doesn’t raise the baby can be explored if she’s gone, however the baby surviving without it’s mother for the first several months would be quite problematic. Unless they find a hidden store of baby formula with no expiration dates or a tame lactating boar or polar bear or one of the other women starts lactating, I think she might be safe for this season at least.
Jack: I know everyone thinks he’s too important to die, but that’s the main reason I think he might. His death would cause even more drama, he’s the only doctor and the leader (sort of), this would cause a great impact on the Lostaways. They would turn to Sun for medical help but she’s not going to be able to handle the major stuff. There would then be a struggle for leadership, maybe this is where they would split into two groups with one group following Locke and another following Sayid? Jack may have been a reluctant leader but I think everyone looked to him for leadership because he had an important skill, his loss would make it confusing for the others. Both Locke and Sayid would be harder for everyone to agree on, some may feel both are untrustworthy in some way, perhaps their could even be a third camp following Kate? Michael? Hurley?
Jack’s death would be the one of the most dramatic for the future of the Lostaways. And remember his character was scheduled to die in the pilot, perhaps they just decided to postpone it until later when it would have the most dramatic effect on the viewers and the story.
Locke: Just about everything I said for Jack, applies to Locke. His death would create drama for all the Lostaways because he is important in their survival. He seems to know what he’s doing and he catches the big game. Sayid might be able to step into his niche but probably not as well. If Locke dies, it will likely also be some noble sacrifice and/or after the revelation of some island mystery. However I think he is tied to the island somehow now and he may be important in the future in helping solve some of the mysteries and I doubt they will answer all our questions in the first season.
Here is my only spoiler boxes because this may be information that not everyone has seen;
Supposedly a writer/producer said every character is going to get three flashback episodes and Jack is the only one scheduled to have three before the end of the season. However not all the future episodes are accounted for so it is possible that Kate could get a third, since she has had two. Saywer gets his second this week and could possibly hit three by the end of season.
Locke has yet to get his second, I think it’s due after Sawyer’s second and Jin and Hurley’s first which I think is the order of episodes to come, however that doesn’t mean he couldn’t get two more in before the end of the season. Perhaps the last episode(s) will combine two characters flashbacks?
Here’s another important point. Locke’s next episode is entitled “Deus Ex Machina”, this could mean that something important is revealed and perhaps Locke does indeed sacrifice himself for the others? Still that would only give him two episodes if he dies in that one, unless we find out more about him “post mortem”.
So my choice on who I think is most likely to die is Jack because of the dramatic effect his death would have on the story. Second most likely, purely for drama and the effect on the Lostaways, would be Locke.
However if the writers don’t decide to take risks (Locke and Jack would be risky for the story) I suppose it could just as likely be anyone, and then I think it is likely to be Saywer or Boone doing some noble deed or sacrifice, or Sayid. Since they don’t have a lot of female characters I don’t think it’s likely to be one of them (this season).
From the Gurus at TV Tome:
The next several episodes (and there are blurbs included for the first few) are …
Outlaws - Sawyer
In Translation - Jin (and I think the title indicates a resolution on the question of who speaks English)
Numbers - Hurley
Deus ex Machina - Locke
Do No Harm - Jack
Sides - Sayid
Possible dead Lostees:
Jack because:
I’ve read that originally the producers planned on having his character die in the first episode. So they must view him as expendable. Plus he’s got the whole martyr mystique going for him. But my guess is that he’ll survive because the producers on this show are basically traditional and won’t kill off their leading man.
Locke because:
He seems like the character most likely to sacrifice himself for all the others.
Sawyer because:
He’d get a chance to redeem his character with a dramatic death. Plus it would resolve the love triangle issue.
And my pick, Hurley, because:
They’ve been saving his back story up. If what I’ve read is true his flashback will be the season finale. Having been seen as mild mannered comic relief, he’ll be revealed as a dramatic character and will die a noble death sacrificing himself for everyone else.
UnlessHurley’s flashback episode is a life-passing-before-his-eyes one, and the flashback ends with his untimely demise.
Man, I hope not, though.
I have to agree with Archive Guy, and Little Nemo. My bet is with Hurley. Really really would hate to see that happen though. He is probably the only main character that I would actually like to have around.
As a long term Trekker nitpicker, I simply must applaud you guys for such in depth analysis.
Outstanding.
(Outstanding post, by the way)
I’m inclined to pick Jack, precisely because of the dramatic effect. So far, the writers seem determined to raise more questions than supply answers, getting us viewers really hooked in the process. Killing off Jack would send the show off in some totally unpredictable direction
You have no idea how much I’d love it if you turn out to be right.