Cookies you don’t happen to have a role that can trick dogs do you? Because that it would be helpful for my psyche.
I think we are in pretty good shape. I’m not quite sure what Blaster was thinking. There isn’t a good reason why he couldn’t have claimed truthfully, and offered to help. We could have picked his target, and he could have gotten the necessary kills. I’m assuming it wouldn’t have mattered to him who he took out.
At any rate we have a number confirmed townies at this point. I suggest they work together and pick a target. That way we know the lynch will be what townies want. Townies can be wrong of course, but if townies split up it is easier for scum to influence behavior.
I’d suggest Amrussell as a target, but pestering Mhaye to post more does have its benefits. Other options I’d look at are Almost Human and JSexton. I need to do a reread with the new information we have.
How do you figure that? I don’t think claiming SK is ever a good way to avoid a lynch. When it comes right down to it, his WC isn’t ours, and there’s no way we could trust him for long. If we’re going to have to lynch him eventually (despite him not technically being a deadite, I think we’d need to) then I’d rather do it now and prevent him from messing with us.
Are you saying that you’d have been okay with him claiming “Freddy Krueger, SK, but totally with you guys!”?
amrussel, Mhaye, Jsexton, and Hal are on my watchlist right now, and I think we should lynch one of them.
I agree with Hawk that we should do what we can not to be too split in our candidates amongst myself, Total Lost, Pedescribe, Hockey Monkey, and Hawkeye (at least in spirit). I really hope the 5 of us, with our 4 votes can work in solidarity to help catalyze a scum lynch toDay.
I have never played like that before - I always go for the one I find the most scummy - but I see the point. I’ll have to go back and look more careful at those on your watchlist - but for now (because my vote is more then just a vote) I’ll
I know Lynch the Lurker is not good strategy. But, if you consider lurking in with the rest of your criteria, it may help. I just (using my new knowledge of clicking on the post count) added up everyone’s total post count - not counting today.
**
Almost Human 29
Amrussel 39
Brewha 51
Bufftabby dead
Chucara 36
Cookies 98
Diggit dead
dotchan 24
Hal Briston 8
Hawkeye dead
Hockey 26
Jsexton 38
Macey dead
Mhaye 22
Millit 41
NAF dead
Nannook 9
Natlaw 97
Pedescribe 69
Peeker dead
Pleo dead
Rapier 38
Special Ed 62
Total Lost 59
Zeriel 16
**
Or, in order of post count:
**
Hal Briston 8
Nannook 9
Zeriel 16
Mhaye 22
dotchan 24
Hockey 26
Almost Human 29
Chucara 36
Jsexton 38
Rapier 38
Amrussel 39
Millit 41
Brewha 51
Total Lost 59
Special Ed 62
Pedescribe 69
Natlaw 97
Cookies 98
Bufftabby dead
Diggit dead
Hawkeye dead
Macey dead
NAF dead
Peeker dead
Pleo dead
**
Hal and Nanook are really the only two that stand out. Less than 10 posts in 4 days? They are either laying low or just not playing.
My promised reread Hawk/Cookies now we know Hawk is town and got Cookies confirmed as town.
To give an indication of how useful this might be: of Hawkeyeops suspect list based on macey votes, only amrussell isn’t confirmed yet, the rest turned out town.
Since both are town, scum most likely stayed out of the fight or try to encourage the fight from the sidelines (as Total Lost commented on my previous analysis):
-dotchans drive-by vote for Cookies. I now believe this to be a townie mistake (most due to BlaMs claim she Alpha) and Chucara making a similar one;
-brewha uses the same arguments as NAF against Cookies, amrussell and Natlaw (me). Votes Cookies, later unvotes and finally goes for peekercpa;
-Rapier42, thinks Hawks method a magic bag, but is still convinced by his argument. Votes Cookies, while votes for peekercpa are at three. Later switches to peekercpa to make sure he gets lynched instead of dotchan.
-JSexton argues against Hawk, votes him, but later unvotes because he decides they’re just arguing play styles. Does not vote for someone else;
-Almost Humanvotes for Hawk because he twisted his theory for scum benefit. Not convinced he is scum, but votes anyway;
-Total Lost and Nanook both say they don’t see the case against Cookies and would vote Hawk, if there weren’t voting for dotchan resp. peekercpa;
The no-votes Day two were (leaving out dead/confirmed):
Nanook, JSexton, dotchan, Hal Briston, zeriel
Voters for others than Cookies/Hawk/peeker:
Millit the Frail, amrussell, Natlaw, Total Lost (Cookies confirmed though)
Of those listed brewha votes for Cookies stands out the most to me.
He started the day with a vote for Blaster Master and has an almost perfect voting record (ends votes: scum, PFK, Cookies when most others went for townie Chucara), PFK). Not sure if that says anything.
His vote for Cookies on Day three is odd though. He uses the same explanation as Day two (Hawk pointing out Cookies’ defense of macey), but he has specifically unvoted Cookies Day two (he was just testing her reaction and her explanation hold water now). He unvotes Cookies Night Three again because of her claim without comment on it (though later weighs in on the capitalization).
If he is scum though, he would have knowingly sacrificed macey. There were five hours between macey making the first question and the last to warn him on the scum board.
I’m listening to Ash; she’s got the hookup. My opinions:
Nanook is a good candidate too. After I run a couple errands today, I’m going to post my Nanook case. Good or bad.
Of those you’ve mentioned, I’d go with Hal. He finally voted, only yesterDay, and when he did, it was for Ash. That’s completely fishy. As the Pool O’ Scum ™ is shrinking, I’m betting the scum start getting awfully quiet, and Hal is caught in the crosshairs on this one. He said he’d start posting more last week, but by then, it was getting risky to do so.
amrussell is posting a lot, and it’s mostly decent analysis. I don’t see anything particularly scummy. I’ve got to think about this one.
MHaye has some bad stuff going for him. Posting infrequently, voting last-minute, etc. I don’t know that his “Alpha Redshirt” guess on Hal was PI, though. If the scum know who is Alpha and who is Beta, they also know who the power roles are, as none appear to have A/B identities so far. That’s waaaaay unfair. Then again, what do I know? A scum investigator is possible, but why investigate Hal? The paranoid version, if I’m right about Hal: Hal could simply be lying in order to make MHaye look bad. “Haha, he’s RIGHT! Must be scum!!”
JSexton is a mixed bag. He went after Blaster pretty hard, and he hasn’t been bandwagoning other than that. His other vote that stuck was for Pleonast, early on Day 1, and that doesn’t tell me anything. Seems to be posting a fair amount, though.
I don’t think it’s a good thing to just vote like the confirmed townies do.
You’re suspicious of or happy to lynch anyone voting for you or anyone someone else has made a vote/case for. Pedescribe is voting all over the place (I think he averages four votes per Day/Night cycle), people are blaming Hockey Monkey for me-too voting, etc.
Yes, that it might make it easier for scum to manipulate the votes. If you choose right, scum cannot derail, but how big are the odds (3 / 17?). But if they do try to manipulate that give us more data to catch them with, rather than all questions about votes answered with ‘well, the masons voted like that’.
So I rather have votes with arguments that we can check.
On mass claiming: not sure how useful that is, doesn’t it just expose the doctor, vigilante and one-fifth killer and all scum just claim vanilla? If mass-claiming should we include Alpha/Beta with Alpha turning one-fifth scum on death?
I like the post from Natlaw - but I find myself in a position where I can say something I feel very strongly about:
I think every player should vote for the person they see as most pro-scum. I like the vote records and the way they play a part in this game - but if every one not voting for the lynch-candidate (or the second one) is looked on with suspicion from that Day and for the rest of the game - we end up with having a Town scared of voting as they feel!
The analysis of records are still very telling - but let’s not think that 3. vote is by scum and that Town would never have a single vote.
I wasn’t really talking to the unconfirmed with that statement, but I should’ve probably elaborated.
It would be a Really Bad Idea for the 4 confirmed votes not to be on the same player, and we (the confirmed) need to not get lazy in advocating our cases. We need to a) find a scummy in the pile and b) sufficiently bring the the hearts and minds of ourselves and enough unconfirmed townies to pad our voting block with enough additional votes to form a firewall against the manipulating scum.
Unconfirmed townies need to be voting for the most compelling case they see, and if that case ends up being contrary to where the confirmed block is looking, we have an opportunity to debate the alternatives.
Why not? Players who are being vocal attract the attention of protective/blocking roles. Why not try a fishing expedition on someone who they may suspect is laying particularly low?
I wasn’t really talking to the unconfirmed with that statement, but I should’ve probably elaborated.
It would be a Really Bad Idea for the 4 confirmed votes not to be on the same player, and we (the confirmed) need to not get lazy in advocating our cases. We need to a) find a scummy in the pile and b) sufficiently bring the the hearts and minds of ourselves and enough unconfirmed townies to pad our voting block with enough additional votes to form a firewall against the manipulating scum.
Unconfirmed townies need to be voting for the most compelling case they see, and if that case ends up being contrary to where the confirmed block is looking, we have an opportunity to debate the alternatives.
No doubt about it…even if you turn out to be wrong, it’s still critical for the confirmeds to vote as a bloc, so as to not let scum dictate the lynch (just don’t turn out to be wrong, ok? :))
Cookies wasn’t saying that everyone should vote with the confirmed, only that the confirmed should try to stick to a voting bloc. It will give the scum less ability to swing a vote.
A few more thoughts that I didn’t directly stipulate…
the unconfirmed townies need to really illustrate their justifications too. They don’t get a free pass to be lazy either, which is what I believe Natlaw is getting at. If you don’t like where the block is going, persuade us to change our minds, just like we should all be doing back at at everyone else. “Me too” votes that follow the confirmed block, or weak votes that don’t follow the block can really only be analyzed upon the lynch reveal.
What? Last I checked the 1/5th dead Town guy (Hawkeye) still counted towards the Town’s win condition and the Mod himself has confirmed that his win condition hasn’t changed (see Day Three).
Plus he’s the ONLY alpha redshirt that’s been killed so far, and we have no idea what’s causing the 4/5ths thing at all. Have a nice, sharp, and paranoid FoS Natlaw
MHaye’s post about Hal does seem rather suspicious, but since there are only two flavors of Vanilla Town and I was the one who had rather explicitly claimed alpha straight out of the gate, I could see it being a genuine mistake. FoS MHaye anyway.