No I’m probably not helping you very much. So the worst case scenario of a Cookies lynch is a confirmed townie? That isn’t too bad right? I much rather a confirm from Story on TL then from Naf.
COOKIES WILL BE INVESTIGATED! Good lord, sorry for thinking that was obvious. There is more reward all the way around with a cookies investigation than with any other investigation. If I confirm Cookies as town then TL MUST be town too. We get 2 for 1, and I make up for fucking up yesterDay. This is not advanced logic.
I made the mistake of thinking that I would get cut some slack in regard to how I was allowed to play. I won’t make that mistake again. I now have to play as though the town is made up of morons, that’s ok though.
I already have. Several times.
He is already set up for Day 6.
I don’t like this quote one bit. Particulalry if MHaye is actually scum.
I don’t know it you are scum or not - but I know what I am and I’m sorry but I’ll not be a part of “confirming” you by “confirming” me!
No, because then we are lynching someone unnecessrily. I am going to get killed in a Day or two to be confirmed remember? This is going to happen whether Cookies dies or not. If she is town and I am able to confirm her before I get killed then we have an EXTRA CONFRIMED TOWN!!!1111elevenOMGONE!!~!
If you lynch her and then lynch me anyway we are down a confirmed town. What don’t you get here. Confirmed townies are the easiest way for town to win.
You understand if you don’t investigate Cookies you get to investigate someone else right? The question isn’t investigate Cookies or lynch Cookies. It is investigate Cookies and LYNCH SOMEONE ELSE or lynch Cookies and INVESTIGATE SOMEONE ELSE. As I think the odds of any one besides Cookies being town are higher than the odds of Cookies being town, I would say you investigating anyone else has a better chance of adding to our Mason group.
Not to rain on your parade, I know how you feel. When NAF claimed, I was sure he was scum when I noticed my Town Win Condition was different from the public vanilla PM. I asked Story about (in a bit confusing way), after which he made that post.
I do know that MS Outlook aggressively decapitalizes words mid sentence that are not names (like total and lost). So if Story used MS Word, that gives a reason why it is all lower case.
I’m using Open Office Calc for votes and it insist it is Jsexton instead of JSexton :(.
On preview: I see NAF pointed out Story’s vote counts as well.
Nice. Real Nice.
Look, just because you say you can investigate means absolutely nothing to me. I have no reason to trust you unconditionally. That makes me, or any other town member, a moron?
So, what if you come back with a ‘read’ on Cookies? How do we know your read is correct? We’re just supposed to trust you til day 5 or 6? What if you’re scum? All you are doing is delaying the town.
What if you, Cookies, and Total lost is scum. You’re basically screaming “NO DON’T LYNCH Cookies!”. So you can come back tomorrow and say, “well whadda know, Cookies is Town - which makes Total Lost town”. Now we have 3 confirmed ‘Townies’, who are actually scum and free to do what they want until we lynch you in a couple of days. By then it could be too late for the town to recover.
Look, I’m not sayin that any of the above is actually what I believe. I’m just saying that I cannot take your word as gospel truth. And I’m just leary of your whole claim.
Yes, yes all true. You’re just not helping the (admittedly selfish) “I wanna keep playing” possibilities, but I wouldn’t have claimed if I didn’t think my death would be useful as well.
On that note…
Naf:
The statement in my PM does not confirm Total Lost as a Townie, it only eliminates one alignment possibility: Deadite. Remember Peeker Jenkis. Her reactions so far to my claim are really making me wonder about the PFK angle, and that you’re not allowing for the 3rd party possibility is a bit troubling as well.
Anyone know how many days we have til Lynch or Lose?
I’ll see if I can figure it out.
Just to be clear: it was not obvious to me. Just like it was not obvious you would be investigating Chucara Yesterday or that it was obvious to you that he wouldn’t be lynched. You said you investigate dotchan to continue building your masonhood. After that you listed five other people as suspicious, so that got me confused I guess.
Yeah, but I am being killed sometime after Day 6 remember?
Ok, the morons thing wasn’t nice. Sorry, I shouldn’t get worked up. I am not asking anyone to trust me, all I am asking is that you all let me do my thing until you kill me. I am asking to be killed at some point after Day 6 (including durring Night 6).
And Cookies, even if all we learn is that TL isn’t a deadite (though, that kinda sucks I got excited and didn’t consider she might still be 3rd party), that’s still a net positive of information in investigating you over anyone else. Right now investigating you nets the town more information than anyone else I can look at. And it nets town more power than lynching you does. If you turn up scum you get vigged that Night and I get confirmed and TL get’s taken out of the Deadite pool and added to the pool of players who “need to be vigged before endgame but not lynched”. If you turn up town then when I die the same happens for you and TL instead of me and TL.
This is more than *any *other use of my power can get us right now. As an added bonus, you claim to be vanilla, so much the better. Scum will be disinclined to kill you off after you are confirmed.
I know it wasn’t obvious to you. I swear I had already explicitly posted that, but don’t worry about it. I over reacted.
Apologies all around to anyone I barked at.
Except hawk, he had it comming. 
Yes, I do remember. So, what if we do nothing but lynch townies on days 4, 5, and 6?
Unless our Doc (assuming we have one) makes the right choice, we’re going to lose a townie tonight, nite 4, nite 5, and nite 6.
Who know what else could be lurking out there that could take out town?
So we could potentially lose 7+ townies before we lynch you.
How many townies do we have now?
How many Scum are we guessing?
Can we afford to lose 7 town to confirm 3?
You been mostly dead all Day.
If we get Billy Crystal in here, can you be brought back to life?
but seriously, I wonder if there is a way to revive dead people. Maybe it’s not in the cannon of Evil Dead, eh?
Ok, well, thoeretically I am confriming other townies in that time too. And you shouldn’t lynch me, you should have the vig take me out.
If you are Town we can Vig you if we have a Vig and the Vig is still alive. If you confirm Cookies, what’s to prevent Scum from NK’ing her? She’d not just be a Vanilla Town, but a CONFIRMED Vanilla Town. That would seem to draw a big target on her back. And what’s to stop each confirmed Townie from being NK’d?
If you are Scum, you can ‘confirm’ Cookies who may also be Scum. If we don’t take you out until Day 7 (because the Vig may be dead Night 6, then we can’t get Cookies until Day 8 (and even then, she might be just a townie set up by you). That gives Scum quite a few kills while we wait. And allows you to perhaps divert the doctor’s attention from other potential protection targets.
*If you are PFK *then, other stuff happens
No, as a matter of fact I did not say that.
In post [post=10619566]D01.312[/post] I said, in part :
At the time I made that post, I thought, based on a review of the evidence available at the time, that I would not have voted for TF. However, I did not review the evidence against Macey with anything like the level of care, because I already knew the answer to “Is he Townie or deadite?” I’m quite sure that if the Board had not crashed when it did that I would have taken as much care to study Macey’s posts as I did TF’s, because that was my intention at the time. But I could not then (and cannot now) be sure about what conclusion I would have come to about Macey.
I’ll see what I can do, but don’t hold your breath; I wouldn’t like you to die from oxygen starvation. 
The way I work is to get more active as the number of players fall. There’s any number of reasons for that, but I don’t want to discuss them on a message board, sorry.
I’ll get with the programme eventually, don’t worry.
You are wrong about the cookies scenario. If the scum kill Cookies she is just vanilla town, no big loss and the power roles get to live another Day and the hiding pool for scum shrinks and we still get the info on TL. Advantage town.
As for the rest:
If you are acutally that suspicious of my you should vote to lynch me now.
There is no reason not to.
I’m not suspicious enough of you to vote for you. Just cautious.
I’m just trying to think through all the possibilities because I don’t want to overlook anything.
The more I think about it, however, the more I think it makes more sense for you to use your power to not confirm the towniest people. I think you should investigate the scummiest people. If they come back as Town, then that’s great and you can add them to your masonry. If they come back as Scum, then we can reduce the Scum numbers.
Of course, I see what you mean with the 2 for 1 with Cookies.
I disagree with that Ed, but as long as you get the 2 for 1 thing with Cookies I think that is a start.
Let’s take a look at this another way making some (IMO) good assumptions.
Here are the claims, let me know if I am missing something.
Cookies - Ash, vanilla town
Dotchan - Vanilla town (claimed alpha I think)
Total Lost - Claimed to be not a deadite by cookies.
Zeriel - Vanilla town
Pedescribe - mason
Diggit - psychic (closest extant role I know of that matches your claim)
NAF1138 - truth Investigator/lie detector
We also have
1 - Dead SK
2 - Dead vanilla town
2 - Dead scum
That leaves:
Amrussel
Almost Human
BlaM
brewha
Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey
JSexton
Millit
Mhaye
Nanook
Natlaw
Rapier
Special Ed
Zeriel
That leaves a pool of 14 total unknowns.
In that 14 people there are 2 masons (likely) and 3 scum (likely)
It is likely that there were 10 vanillas at the start of the game. (again because of the 1/5 dead bit) 5 alpha 5 beta then Ash who is sort of Vanilla plus if Cookies is being honest. So 11 vanilla 2 dead 3 claimed. So in that 14 there are probably another 5 vanilla. Leaving 4 power roles.
One of those we know is a vig. One is almost undoutably a doctor. I hope that one of them is also a cop and that the last is another doc and that we are out of third party. Realistically we probably have one more. It’s either in this group or it’s TL. (All this assumes all claims listed are truthful.)
We lose nothing by having the people who have claimed so far get killed. If it distracts scum from shooting into the rest of the pool, so much the better. This is why I think the masons should claim sooner rather than later, I think it will protect the last power roles. And if it doesn’t then it gives scum a small pool to hide in.
But that isn’t my choice. That’s cool, masons do what you gotta, but don’t get killed.
Ok, back later with what I think the above means.
Let’s say we loose 3 players per day/Night. If they are a power role they will claim before we lynch them, so