Mafia Reunion - Day One

[Koldanar]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

:smack: :smack: :smack:

Thanks for the heads up. Yup, I sure did.

unvote Enderw24

vote Koldanar

You guys post too damn much. While I catch up, I can at least answer the Prof here.

I don’t trust these mods, flat out (Love you guys…don’t trust you guys!). I’ve been hunting for something hidden in plain sight - the way they structured the roles, I thought I had caught something. The wizard role using A instead of The fit right into my suspicions. I’m not sure how I missed the line stating one of each role excepting Masons - I read too fast.

[Normal_Phase]

@septimus

Sorry. First for coloring and adding musical notes to my claim; more importantly for being forced to claim. It’s a duty of a Town Power to avoid becoming one of the Lynch leaders, and I certainly failed. For this and other reasons when I click on my role PM, I always hope it says Vanilla Town. No. This time it says I am the Town EMT.

And it was increasingly likely that I’d need to claim. Discussing me had become a distraction, both for me and for Town in general. If not Lynched toDay, I’d be the default Lynchee on Day 2. There was little sign that my comments had reduced suspicion. Several of the voters seemed in for the long haul; some of the non-voters had an FOS on me. Questions were being directed at me repeatedly; my answers provoked more accusation and more questions; my attention was drifting away from Scum-hunting (and Town-hunting — “Dammit Jim, I’m a Doctor not a Detective!”). I decided to get it over with.

And I would need to claim or stay awake until 3AM, less than 2 days from now (not 3 days as someone just wrote). As long as I was suspected — and suspicions were increasing, not decreasing — I could easily be Lynched in a few minutes at EOD, for example if Colby claimed Town Power.

Yes, I was free NOT to Claim — you’d have ended end up with a Town Power dead. Would all y’all have preferred that? I thought of “soft claiming” (“I am a Town Power. Do you really want to know which one?”). I do NOT think that would have had an effect. @ Total — would you have happily Unvoted me after a soft claim like that? Even with the hard claim, Unvotes have not really flurried in rapidly.

And note that Wolves (the Night-time killers) may decide that a Day-time protector is more help than hindrance to them. They’d be more likely to Kill me if my Power were certain but undisclosed. Mafia won’t try to Kill me either: obviously I’ll be self-protecting now.

As for “didn’t septimus claim around the same time End of Day would be”, (1) A lot can happen between 2:08 AM and 3AM, or (2) are we now going to question whether EOD comes at 3AM my time? Discussing my personal life would be a digression; let’s just say that I’d prefer not to feel obliged to keep awake and tuned into SDMB until 3AM for worry about misLynch.

Answering Total again, I was not worried about Scum Killing me because of Scum hints — as I said previously, I’m too easily misLynched for Scum to bother with unless my Power role is certain.

Wrong. Read my previous paragraph. But I take full blame for the “premature” claim. I should have posted little and thought like a Scum (“What vote should I make to avoid accusations against me?”) rather than posting and voting sincerely like a Vanilla Townie.

Septimus, seriously consider NOT self-protecting. I know, WIFOM, ok? But here’s the logic.

The potential kills at the end of today, third parties aside, consist of the following:
Mafia factional kill (you can selfprotect). Outrider kill aimed at the target of protection (you die if you selfprotect and the Outrider targets you. As things stand, the Outrider almost certainly will target you).

If the mafia kill you because you didn’t self-protect, it’s one death, although a painful one. The outrider goes away empty-handed. If the mafia assume you’ll self-protect and shoot elsewhere, and then the Outrider targets you also assuming a self-protect – and you are self-protecting – then it’s TWO deaths, and all town can hope for is that mafia were aiming for a wolf.

[septimus]

@Total_Lost

I’d still very much like to know - even now - if you in fact did soft claim or if I misread you. I know it might not mean anything to the game - but it does now mean something to me.

I’ll answer … provided you first answer my counter-question: Why do you want to know?

But feel free not to answer that! I agree with

@Koldanar

You guys post too damn much.

I’d intended to post little, but got caught up answering questions and accusations. Not only did this distract me, but it distracted the other fifty players who have to wade through it.

[Normal_Phase]

@Thing_Fish

I, of course, would like to invite everyone to come on board the spacious and comfortable Pleonast bandwagon, with gourmet coffee and free wi-fi.

Having said that, thoughts on the vote leaders and other dubious characters:

I am really fine with lynching **Colby **today. I think there is a small but not insignificant chance that the Slip might actually have been a slip, and I think it’s a decent Day One lynch.

I would like to reread if I had time, but the case against Toejam also seems decent.

I think the case against Angel is bogus. There is no good reason for her to draw attention to herself as Scum, and for her to point that out isn’t remotely scummy. I am the first to say that Town must be eternally vigilant and never underestimate the awesome power of a scummy Angel, but this wagon is lame and I fart in the general direction of all of you on it, particularly Boozahol, whose interactions with** Angel** were notably scummy.

I am kind of torn about Lakai. Several people voted him (?) for jumping on the Colby bandwagon, and I can see the argument that his vote seemed like the laziest one on the wagon. Then in defending himself, he cited Diggit’s horribly anti-town opinion that defending another player is scummy. It is notable to me that three of the people on his wagon are lurkers (though I am sure we wouldn’t be able to shut snfaulkner up if he weren’t sick…get better soon!), and the fourth is Plumpudding, who has been called out for fluffposting.
**
Drain Bead**, don’t you think it’s getting a bit late in the Day to keep your vote parked on Meeko?

I want to snuggle you so hard right now. I agree with pretty much everything.

vote: Pleonast

Fair warning I will probably not be staying, as I’ve found multiple people scummier than him toDay, but you deserve support for the read.

[Lakai]

@Normal_Phase

This seems overblown. The game is about paranoia.

Isn’t it about overcoming paranoia?

[Normal_Phase]

@Lakai

Isn’t it about overcoming paranoia?

A little of each. Paranoia is the natural state of things. For you to discredit someone’s read by calling it paranoia is not a good look.

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

@Koldanar

You guys post too damn much. While I catch up, I can at least answer the Prof here.

I don’t trust these mods, flat out (Love you guys…don’t trust you guys!). I’ve been hunting for something hidden in plain sight - the way they structured the roles, I thought I had caught something. The wizard role using A instead of The fit right into my suspicions. I’m not sure how I missed the line stating one of each role excepting Masons - I read too fast.

Okay. Do you have any probable suspects?

[Normal_Phase]

Who are your suspects, Prof P?

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

@Normal_Phase

Who are your suspects, Prof P?

I’ve already said. See Post 526. Doesn’t look like I’ve convinced anyone else, though.

[LightFoot]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

I’ve already said. See Post 526. Doesn’t look like I’ve convinced anyone else, though.

I re read 526. You list low posters but many of them you have commented “good first post” or some such- leaving this reader unsure if you are FOSing them or mentioning them for some other reason

[Normal_Phase]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

I’ve already said. See Post 526. Doesn’t look like I’ve convinced anyone else, though.

Like it, but think it wouldn’t hurt to expand your view to other low posters as long as you’re here.

[Normal_Phase]

@LightFoot

I re read 526. You list low posters but many of them you have commented “good first post” or some such- leaving this reader unsure if you are FOSing them or mentioning them for some other reason

Yeah, I know. The vote on Ender is fine, but there’s a rigidness to this kind of formula-based scumhunting that I find a bit suspicious.

As near as I can tell the others were mentioned merely because they were in Prof’s pre-determined group to be examined, not because they’d done anything in any other way noteworthy. It’s not enough.

[Total_Lost]

@septimus

I’ll answer … provided you first answer my counter-question: Why do you want to know?

Why I want to know if you soft-claimed by intent or if I misread it?

To learn from it of cause. But never mind. It can wait till after the game.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Normal_Phase]

@Suburban_Plankton

On the subject of “bandwagons”:

A town player shouldn’t need to give any consideration to whether or not they are joining, or causing, a “bandwagon”. They have no special knowledge, so they should vote for the person they think is most likely to be Scum. If that person also happens to be suspected by a great number of other players, then it’s a “bandwagon”…and there’s probably a good reason for it. But to not place a vote on someone you think is Scum, simply because “a lot of other people are voting for him”, is not pro-Town behavior. At best, it’s misguided but innocent; at worst it’s a sign that you know the person is innocent, and are trying to find a way to avoid being associated with their lynch.

If you think Player A is likely to be Scum, then vote for Player A. If you don’t then don’t. By all means, base your decision in part on what other players are saying, but don’t base it on who other players are voting for. Not this early in the game, and not this early in the Day. As someone said upthread: votes are cheap, and you can change them all you want. As the game moves on, the most important source of information that the Town has is the voting record - if you don’t vote, then there’s no record.

Bah, I say, bah. There’s 12 scum in this game right now, not to mention third parties. There’s no need to stick like glue to your first scum read – or even to vote for them at all – if there are already 12 other people voting there, and it’s pretty much the opposite of anti-town to behave in a way that encourages people to have to weigh in on more suspects as opposed to less.

I feel you have not thought this through.

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

@Normal_Phase

Yeah, I know. The vote on Ender is fine, but there’s a rigidness to this kind of formula-based scumhunting that I find a bit suspicious.

As near as I can tell the others were mentioned merely because they were in Prof’s pre-determined group to be examined, not because they’d done anything in any other way noteworthy. It’s not enough.

Okay, formula-based scumhunting (LtL) is what I do on D1 and maybe D2, before we have any date from votes and Night activities. My analyses have provided me with a small base that has an 85% chance of producing at least one Scum. It is terribly limited in that it does NOT provide me a way of choosing which one. Since D1 is a crapshoot anyway, it seems a better place for me to set my vote than on someone who, by the very fact they are participating, is more likely to make an error if Scum.

In this go-round, remember, even the Scum are paranoid, 'cause they have to worry about the other team. That means we have (ideally) 50+ people combing over every sentence posted, and the best we have toDay is a possible clearing of septimus and (maybe) Idle. Everyone else is necessarily suspect, and those who aren’t playing much do sneak under the radar.

Of course, closer to EoD, I will probably change my vote to whichever one of the pack leaders looks the most scummy to me, as I see a singleton vote as pretty much a throwaway and scummy in and of itself. YMMV.

[LightFoot]

@Normal_Phase

Bah, I say, bah. There’s 12 scum in this game right now, not to mention third parties. There’s no need to stick like glue to your first scum read – or even to vote for them at all – if there are already 12 other people voting there, and it’s pretty much the opposite of anti-town to behave in a way that encourages people to have to weigh in on more suspects as opposed to less.

I feel you have not thought this through.

12?

The rest I think I agree with

[septimus]

Red Skeezix usually posts very little Day 1, IIRC. His vote of Lakai seems reasonable. Inner Stickler is also relatively quiet, IIRC.

Regarding the case against Colby11: At first his seems like it might be a scum slip, but again: What would lead a Scum to post like that? It’s not Scum talking to his teammates. And it sure doesn’t sound like Scum pretending to be Town letting slip with a point of view. Unless someone can explain exactly what sort of mental lapse would lead a Scum to post like that, I think Colby is more likely than average to be Town! (Scum would be likely to preview and look for such bad wordings.) I will look with disfavor with those still voting Colby if they can’t explain Colby’s post as a Scum lapse.

When I called the Professor “fluffy” I really meant “overly helpful.” (AS I say, English may be my first language, but it isn’t my best. :smack: )

[Lakai]

@Normal_Phase

A little of each. Paranoia is the natural state of things. For you to discredit someone’s read by calling it paranoia is not a good look.

I made a joke about paranoia because every one of my posts was used as evidence that I was scum. And now you find my joke suspicious.

[Normal_Phase]

From Chronos’ 450:

This has implications, in particular, for the doc-killer scum roles (Hitman and Outrider, which were the roles I found most troubling). We’d been assuming that, given a single confirmed Townie, the Scum would be likely to use the doc-killer on that player, and that if they did, they’d kill the protector. But it looks like it might be more like, they kill the protector, if the doc-killer isn’t turned off, and if the protector also isn’t turned off. This makes it a lot safer for a protector to target a confirmed Townie.

I’d forgotten about the switches, but this has possible repercussions for the current EMT situation. Not sure I’d lay my own life on the likelihood of switches going the right way, but it’s a thing.

[Normal_Phase]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Okay, formula-based scumhunting (LtL) is what I do on D1 and maybe D2, before we have any date from votes and Night activities. My analyses have provided me with a small base that has an 85% chance of producing at least one Scum. It is terribly limited in that it does NOT provide me a way of choosing which one. Since D1 is a crapshoot anyway, it seems a better place for me to set my vote than on someone who, by the very fact they are participating, is more likely to make an error if Scum.

In this go-round, remember, even the Scum are paranoid, 'cause they have to worry about the other team. That means we have (ideally) 50+ people combing over every sentence posted, and the best we have toDay is a possible clearing of septimus and (maybe) Idle. Everyone else is necessarily suspect, and those who aren’t playing much do sneak under the radar.

Of course, closer to EoD, I will probably change my vote to whichever one of the pack leaders looks the most scummy to me, as I see a singleton vote as pretty much a throwaway and scummy in and of itself. YMMV.

We have a clearing of Idle? What did I miss?

As for the rest, I still find your rigid thinking here to be a bit more likely scum than random. I don’t remember you acting like this in the game we played together.