Mafia Reunion - Day One

[Pleonast]

@Suburban_Plankton

There was no ‘in game’ reason for septimus to claim at that point.

Sure there was. septimus had 11% of the vote vs colby11’s 17% with 72% of the players were undecided between the two. That’s an excellent example of an unstable decision.

It’s also pro-Town to claim before nearly the end of the Day. Frantic vote shifts due to last-minute claims don’t help us.

As an aside: I’m not sure we’ll ever manage a second lynch, when we’re not even meeting its threshold with the primary lynch.

@Chronos

It’s somewhat moot now that septimus has fully claimed, but Total Lost was absolutely correct to question him.

Yes, asking players to explain what the mean is an essential part of the game. On the other hand, that does not mean it’s wrong to find scummy motivation in Total Lost’s questioning.

@Chronos

He said something that made it look an awful lot like he has a power role. Scum, having many pairs of eyes on the lookout, and who are specifically looking for clues to power roles, almost certainly spotted it. Any relevant protective role, who has only one pair of eyes, might or might not have spotted it. If nobody had said anything, the most likely result would have been a Scum-kill of septimus that went through successfully due to lack of protection.

I don’t have this concern. There should always be doubt about a claim, especially a soft claim. It’s plausible for a vanilla townie to soft claim in order to draw a Night kill. (Wasn’t it you who said that’s an honor?) And in this game, Scum may or may not want to cross-kill.

@Chronos

On another note, since we’re talking about claims: We may have some non-hostile third parties out there. Speaking for myself, I’m a lot more likely to accept such if you claim, without pressure, on Day 1. If you wait to claim until you’re forced to, I’m likely to conclude that you thought you had something to hide. Now, I know that not everyone agrees with me on this, and there are at least some players who think that every non-Town should automatically be lynched on sight, but it’s something to consider.

I agree with this completely.

@TexCat

I haven’t checked, but we haven’t heard much from Colby. This bothers me almost as much as his original odd wording. You could get a 2-for-1 vote here: lurker + scum slip.

I find this persuasive. I’m not feeling the “scum slip” case on them, but why the poor participation? vote colby11, you’re likely to die, why aren’t you getting all your thoughts out there while you still can?

@Scathach

I really wish people would just claim fully.

What else are you expecting from septimus regarding their claim? Be specific.

@Zeriel

What’s a Plump Udding? ducks

It’s what a Plump Udder does. (I need brain bleach now.)

@Thing_Fish

Hey! Pleonast!

In this post 192, I suspected you of trying to address your comments to your Scum teammates rather than to Town.

Your rebuttal, part of a long omnibus post 241, completely misses the point:

In the next paragraph of the same post, you snuggle me for doing some analysis on the protector roles.

I call you out on the evasion in post 253:

Since then, you have posted five times, giving your reads on or interacting with ten other players. Two of those posts referred back to your snuggle of me. And yet, you still haven’t responded to this post.

vote Pleonast

I don’t think that I missed the point, but you think I did. What’s more to say? I didn’t feel the need to respond any further. I’d rather be voted by you than waste my bandwidth arguing about it.

@Plumpudding

I find this snippet funny, coming from someone who usually claims Day 1…

@Pleonast: Explain to me why the Patsy can’t advocate claiming Day 1 publicly?

If a player who advocated that the Patsy claim on Day 1, and also doesn’t themselves claim Patsy on Day 1, what do you think the likely reaction will be when that player claims Patsy on a later Day?

Just to be clear, my usual mode of operation is to claim “vanilla” or “not-vanilla” early in the game. A purely soft claim. I only make an early full claim when the role works better in the open (typically non-exclusive-winning third party).

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

My votes again.
unvote
vote colby11 for poor participation while under lynch threat.
vote bufftabby for a lousy vote in D1.259.
vote Normal Phase for daring us to vote for them in D1.27.
vote Chronos for snuggling up to Meeko in D0.442.
vote Scathach for scolding a player for being a “helpful townie” in D1.35.

[wonky]

@Normal_Phase

From Chronos’ 450:

I’d forgotten about the switches, but this has possible repercussions for the current EMT situation. Not sure I’d lay my own life on the likelihood of switches going the right way, but it’s a thing.

The switches make my head hurt every time I try to think about them.

In reading the power roles re: switches, the scum teams can each set all switches to “off” once, while the Town can set them all to “on” once. So I was thinking very basic (probably naive) thoughts that that means “on” is good and “off” is bad. But if each faction has on/off roles, which Chronos suggests and which I think is a good guess, then those big toggles are way more suspect than I was thinking. It’s possible we’ll want half on and half off at any given time.

So does that mean the Tinkerer should wait as long as possible in the game before turning on all switches, since it’s possible that he or she would be overriding someone else turning off a scum power? It would be overriding the surgical switches with a mallet. This is recognizing that the surgical switches are really more like randomly cutting into a person and hoping you miss anything vital.

And do we have any knowledge or guesses about whether switches will be revealed at death? If not, then the Tinkerer would never have more information about what powers are unswitchable by anyone else, I think. Unless I’m just being stupid, which is likely.

If there’s no way for the Tinkerer to gain the information about who controls what switch, there’s no way to know when to hit the button based on that in order not to override a Town person switching off a scum power. So, I’m leaving this whole thing here only for the amusement of those who like to watch a monkey try to think.

Tinkerer, you do you!

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

@Normal_Phase

We have a clearing of Idle? What did I miss?

As for the rest, I still find your rigid thinking here to be a bit more likely scum than random. I don’t remember you acting like this in the game we played together.

No, there’s been no clearing of Idle. He merely claimed vanilla Town.

The game we played together was one of my first ones. I’ve hopefully developed my play style since then.

[sachertorte]

@Chronos

It’s somewhat moot now that septimus has fully claimed, but Total Lost was absolutely correct to question him. He said something that made it look an awful lot like he has a power role. Scum, having many pairs of eyes on the lookout, and who are specifically looking for clues to power roles, almost certainly spotted it. Any relevant protective role, who has only one pair of eyes, might or might not have spotted it. If nobody had said anything, the most likely result would have been a Scum-kill of septimus that went through successfully due to lack of protection.

Total Lost saw it, though, and asked about it. What are the possible consequences now? Well, if septimus follows up with an actual claim, then he’d be a priority target for Scum… but he probably already was that. So that’s no different. But with Total pointing it out, protectors would know to consider targeting him, and with the actual claim, the rest of Town can judge for themselves whether they believe it.

At least, that’s the case if septimus is being honest, but on the other hand, if he’s not being honest, then it’s also appropriate to grill him.

In short: septimus’ soft-claim (deliberately or not) put the game state into a relatively bad position for Town. Total’s question about it improved the game state.

I disagree. We aren’t talking about logic or strategy or some clue that needs to be deciphered. We’re talking about intentional ambiguity. The ambiguity was part of the point. It just so happened that septimus wound up claiming a Town Power, but what if he was vanilla and was trying to be ambiguous to make scum think he was a Town Power? There was a whole bunch of possibilities. All gone because ambiguity needs to be stamped out. Why? That’s been my central question. Why?
Essentially it was because Total Lost wanted to know, which to me, isn’t good enough.

@Chronos

That’s an interesting point: If you’re self-protecting, the Mafia wants to kill you (because you can block their kills) but can’t, and the Wolves can kill you (via the Outrider) but might not want to (because you can’t block their kills anyway).

And you making that point actually causes me to lean Townie on you. Because that sort of detailed thinking about one specific role is what I’d expect from the person who actually has that role.

True. But it is also true that Wolves and Mafia would think along the same lines, especially the protector-killer roles.

@septimus

Sorry again. I seem irritated in my last post. I should have toned it down after preview but, just as with the Role Claim 9 hours ago, I clicked Post just to “get it over with.”

Don’t apologize. That post was the Towniest post you’ve had in a while (It’s kind of hard to judge accurately though, because, you know, claim).

@Captain_Klutz

This will need a larger than usual crowd of confirmed town, as scum get 2 kills per cycle rather than just 1. So multilynching will be essential.

In regard to multilynching, I am a bit concerned about the third lynch, as this will only need a small number of votes. For example, when we are down to 20 players, the third lynch will need just 2 votes. If the votes finish as 7-7-2-1-1-1-1 then that third lynch could have easily been any of 5 different people.

10% is a low bar, so 3rd Lynch will have to be handled with care. But I would also point out that I believe (I haven’t checked for sure) that the threshold is strictly greater than 10%. So 2 votes wouldn’t be enough in your example. The example works for 19 alive though and 4 different 3rd Lynch targets.

Also, also, 3rd Lynch requires 3 dead townies the previous night. When we are down to 19 players, the probability of 3 dead in one night should be reduced (at least one would hope).

@Total_Lost

I’d still very much like to know - even now - if you in fact did soft claim or if I misread you. I know it might not mean anything to the game - but it does now mean something to me.

I like this. Well I hate the content, but I like that it reflects well on Total Lost. That Total Lost, even after the claim and the blowback Total Lost was getting for the claim, still wants to know what septimus was thinking looks more like Townie-who-just-needs-to-know (Nosy Townie) rather than Scum-fisherwoman.

[LightFoot]

@Lakai

I made a joke about paranoia because every one of my posts was used as evidence that I was scum. And now you find my joke suspicious.

" every one of your posts" yes, all 2 of them ( at the time)

[Nanook_of_the_North_Shore]

I think a second lynch is more likely later in the game. Right now people are flailing around, since there isn’t a lot to go on. As more evidence comes in, vote counts will be higher.

I agree about non-exclusive third party claiming now. The issue of course is how to know that they actually ARE non-exclusive?

Speaking of paranoia, am I the only one who has considered that EMT is a great Mafia fake claim? A Mafia septimus doesn’t have to worry about being DK’d, the wolf protector killer wouldn’t have any effect, and he wouldn’t have to worry about being called out as fake by said wolf. Sure, he could be counter claimed, but a Mafia septimus might think the risk of lynch is high enough that the downside of a guaranteed eventual death is worth flushing out the real day protector. None of this need to be acted on now mind you, but something to keep in the back of our minds as the game goes on.

[Plumpudding]

@Pleonast

If a player who advocated that the Patsy claim on Day 1, and also doesn’t themselves claim Patsy on Day 1, what do you think the likely reaction will be when that player claims Patsy on a later Day?

My reaction would depend upon the claim and the justifications for delaying, rather than claiming Day 1. I think there are situations that justify not being *completely *transparent, like the one we, you and me, just outlined regarding a Patsy claim.

@Pleonast

Just to be clear, my usual mode of operation is to claim “vanilla” or “not-vanilla” early in the game. A purely soft claim. I only make an early full claim when the role works better in the open (typically non-exclusive-winning third party).

I guess you’ve heard this time and again, but a claim of vanilla limits the pool of potential powers scum have to guess from, by one. Varies from game to game how compromising that is, but it might scum, while not helping town at all since we can’t take your word for it.

[Plumpudding]

@sachertorte

I disagree. We aren’t talking about logic or strategy or some clue that needs to be deciphered. We’re talking about intentional ambiguity. The ambiguity was part of the point. It just so happened that septimus wound up claiming a Town Power, but what if he was vanilla and was trying to be ambiguous to make scum think he was a Town Power? There was a whole bunch of possibilities. All gone because ambiguity needs to be stamped out. Why? That’s been my central question. Why?
Essentially it was because Total Lost wanted to know, which to me, isn’t good enough.

Agreed. Essentially what me and raventhief (I think?) was trying to get at - by making septimus confirm yes/no, something vague (not necessarily bad, remember) turns concrete. We’re not dealing in absolutes, and for town to try to force thing into one, from LtL, to policy-voting, to third-on-a-wagon-is-always-scum etc. sort of misses the point, IMO.

[Drain_Bead]

@brewha

This is my biggest issue with day one votes as well. Right now there are a handful of prolific posters and a whole bunch of people that have posted little. Admittedly, I’m one of the players that hasn’t posted much. I’m just not seeing much to post about now. This early in the game, I’m completely blind. It won’t be until we’ve got voting records and lynch results that we can start figuring out motivations.

I do need to get a vote in day one. I think it’s important for everyone to vote and be accountable.

Vote Colby11

It wasn’t just the three words - but the three words, the content around those three words, and his reaction to the suspicion - he called it BS, and the fact that he’s been quiet quite since the incident.

I’ve seen a ton of games where if people are quiet for long enough, something else comes up and the players move on. It’s looking like that’s his strategy.

What about that strategy is inherently scummy, though? I can easily see a Townie Colby doing the same thing. “We’ll just go down to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for all of this to blow over.” Should he be more vociferously defending himself? How would one do that? He explained what he meant when he used those words. What else is there?

[LightFoot]

@Chronos

`~snipped~ If nobody had said anything, the most likely result would have been a Scum-kill of septimus that went through successfully due to lack of protection.
Total Lost saw it, though, and asked about it. What are the possible consequences now? Well, if septimus follows up with an actual claim, then he’d be a priority target for Scum… but he probably already was that. So that’s no different. But with Total pointing it out, protectors would know to consider targeting him, and with the actual claim, the rest of Town can judge for themselves whether they believe it.

Which would likely result the death of the protector.

Do you not think it could also be a Scum TL trying to verify a power so they could ’ shoot straight"?

~snip~
In short: septimus’ soft-claim (deliberately or not) put the game state into a relatively bad position for Town. Total’s question about it improved the game state.

I can think of a few ways this is not correct- YMMV

On another note, since we’re talking about claims: We may have some non-hostile third parties out there. Speaking for myself, I’m a lot more likely to accept such if you claim, without pressure, on Day 1. If you wait to claim until you’re forced to, I’m likely to conclude that you thought you had something to hide. Now, I know that not everyone agrees with me on this, and there are at least some players who think that every non-Town should automatically be lynched on sight, but it’s something to consider.

a bold request/suggestion. If I were a non-hostile I would keep my cards to my vest until pressured- odds are against being believed early or late, why start the ball rolling?

[NAF1138]

**
DAY ONE VOTE COUNT
As a quick reminder - there are no powers, hidden or open, that can affect the vote count. If you see an apparent discrepancy, it’s the result of moderator error.

colby11 (10 votes) - Texcat (91), Guiri (101), Meeko (130), ToeJam (132), Hockey Monkey (152), Hawkeye(350), Nanook(455), beewha (683), Pleonast (841)
ToeJam (6 votes) - Sunny Daze (113), Hooker Chemical (184), sinjin (200), Sachertorte (534), Lakai (775), Captain Klutz(796)

Angelofthenorth (4 votes) - Zeriel(413), TotalLost(492), Boozahol Squid PI (546), jsgoddess (503)

septimus (3 votes) - Enderw24 (243), Colby(335)
Lakai (4 votes) - Inner Stickler (257), snfaulkner (295), RedSkeeziz(319), Plumpudding(647)

Boozahol Squid PI (2 votes) - AngeloftheNorth (542), Biotop (709)

Total Lost (2 vote) - raventhief (679), jsgoddess (716)

Pleonast (1 vote) - Thing Fish (794), Normal Phase (824)

PLAYERS WITH 1 VOTE:
Meeko (1 vote) - Drain Bead (94)
Jsgoddess (1 vote) - Chronos (183)
snfaulkner (1 vote) - diggitcamera (264)
Normal Phase (1 vote) - Johnny Bravo (36),
Koldanar (1 vote) - Professor Pepperwinkle (545),
Plumbpudding (1 vote) - Suburban Plankton (541),
**Prof. Pepperwinkle ** (1 vote) - septimus (659)
Johnny Bravo (1 votes) - bufftabby (259)
Texcat (1 vote) - Scathach(758)
scathatch (1 vote) - Hoopy Frood (798)

Promoted Slogan - Town the other White Meat
–paid for by the Doperville Werewolf Farmer Coalition

Colby remains the lynch leader and if nothing changes, he would be the one to be lynched.

Here is a countdown to the end of Day.
**

[LightFoot]

[quote=“Plumpudding, post:820, topic:776577”]

~snipped~
I’m not sure how comfortable I am posting this, but here you go.

~s~
what part were you uncomfortable posting, and why? please

[Plumpudding]

Links to earlier games I’ve played with Colby, from another board. I’m usually not that fond of excessively relying on meta, but I brought it up and Guiri asked.

[Pleonast]

@Plumpudding

I guess you’ve heard this time and again, but a claim of vanilla limits the pool of potential powers scum have to guess from, by one. Varies from game to game how compromising that is, but it might scum, while not helping town at all since we can’t take your word for it.

Hint: scum can’t take my word for it either.

I might as well explicitly explain my gambit in more detail, just so it’s clear to everyone what I’m doing.

0. Background: my typical half-life is about 2 Day-Night cycles. So I have about a 50% chance to be alive at the Dawn of Day 3, 20% on Day 5, 10% on Day 7, etc. I place little value on surviving, because I don’t expect to survive.

1. As a vanilla Townie, my goal is to trick Scum into Night-killing me. Sometimes that means falsely claiming not-vanilla, and sometimes that means making them think my vanilla claim is false.

2. As a non-vanilla Townie, my goal is to trick Scum into not Night-killing me. Sometimes that means falsely claiming vanilla, and sometimes that means making them think my non-vanilla claim is false.

3. As Scum, my goal is to trick Town into thinking I’m playing one of the above gambits.

And in every case, I try to find scum and vote for them.

@LightFoot

Which would likely result the death of the protector.

Do you not think it could also be a Scum TL trying to verify a power so they could ’ shoot straight"? I can think of a few ways this is not correct- YMMV

a bold request/suggestion. If I were a non-hostile I would keep my cards to my vest until pressured- odds are against being believed early or late, why start the ball rolling?

Because a claim while not under pressure indicates a willingness to trust. By claiming under pressure, it indicates the player did not trust us–so why should we trust them?

[Drain_Bead]

@Chronos

Except that, at the time that Total was hounding him, she didn’t know that he could self-protect.

And if you think the hard claim is worse, then explain how. What advantage does it give the Scum that they didn’t already have?

He’s completely lost the ability to self-protect, thanks to the Outrider (or Hitman, I can never remember which is Day and which is Night). He’s basically a sitting duck now. If the Scum thought he was a Town power role, but wasn’t sure (and wasn’t sure which one), they’d still have to be playing the WIFOM game of whether the EMT was self-protecting or protecting someone else. Now they know that the potential power role IS the EMT, and they’ll definitely get him toDay unless the Zoning Protector gets lucky and blocks the Outrider/Hitman. Ouch.

[Plumpudding]

Q: Then why not just not do it? Seems like you’re playing a circular WIFOM-game with yourself, more than anything else.

Apart from that, it binds you to a claim, which can undermine a claim further down the road. It also gives scum something to read into, as in trying to determine if you look like you’re posting from the perspective of vanilla/not-vanilla or not. To boot it introduces an unneccesary guessing game for your fellow town, if your town. Again, why not keep the page blank?

[LightFoot]

@Nanook_of_the_North_Shore

~s~

Speaking of paranoia, am I the only one who has considered that EMT is a great Mafia fake claim? A Mafia septimus doesn’t have to worry about being DK’d, the wolf protector killer wouldn’t have any effect, and he wouldn’t have to worry about being called out as fake by said wolf. Sure, he could be counter claimed, but a Mafia septimus might think the risk of lynch is high enough that the downside of a guaranteed eventual death is worth flushing out the real day protector. None of this need to be acted on now mind you, but something to keep in the back of our minds as the game goes on.

This is a good point.Although the real EMT or any Wolf/Mafia character would have thought of this as well.
And it is a great way to smudge the claimed EMT
not saying that is your intent- but it is another point to note

[NAF1138]

@NAF1138

**
septimus (3 votes) - Enderw24 (243), Colby(335)

**

Sigh,

While it’s probably fairly obvious **
Septimus only has 2 votes not three. That’s why there are only 2 names after his vote tally.

**

Good lord. No wonder we aren’t trusted.

[wonky]

@LightFoot

This is a good point.Although the real EMT or any Wolf/Mafia character would have thought of this as well.
And it is a great way to smudge the claimed EMT
not saying that is your intent- but it is another point to note

I think we should be keeping a very open mind about all claimed roles. I’m not sure it’s possible to smudge a claimed role unfairly.

[Plumpudding]

@LightFoot

This is a good point.Although the real EMT or any Wolf/Mafia character would have thought of this as well.
And it is a great way to smudge the claimed EMT
not saying that is your intent- but it is another point to note

He can still be Day/Night killed, though, if he self-protects.

(Funny, under POWERS for hitman and outrider, it never explicitly say target to kill, only target. Of course it’s implied that it’s a kill-power…)