Okay. So what? What was the point of all that? Why, are you suddenly suspicious of the people who were suspicious of septimus? Were you suspicious of these people before septimus’s claim? or only after? Why does septimus’s claim suddenly make this set of people suspect?
I recall some chatter about being suspicious about Colby voters because of the perceived idea that the case was weak and opportunistic scum would like to jump on a ‘slip.’ I do not recall any similar reasoning involving septimus. Do you feel the case was weak and opportunistic? Did you state so? I stand by my statements and opinions regarding septimus’s posts. Furthermore, we aren’t even sure septimus isn’t scum anyway!
So here’s what I think is happening. Drain Bead is suspicious of people for being wrong (or possibly wrong as the current case stands). This is terrible reasoning. I don’t have any information, so of course I could be wrong. If being wrong about someone is suddenly a ‘case’ against them then this will be a very long game indeed. If you had a problem with my commentary on septimus, why didn’t you comment on it then?
Furthermore, I would point out that the best way for me (and everyone else) NOT to be wrong about anything is to shut the fuck up and not post diddly squat. That doesn’t seem like a good idea, now does it?
Based on the context, I am 100% sure Pleo was referring to the sort of, sort of not, soft claim as not being counterable. Obviously a specific EMT claim is counterable in this game set up.
FWIW, I’ll be heading out of town in a couple of hours. I’ll have limited access to the game with my phone. I’ll try to keep up with reading - but doubt I’ll post.
Unless Colby comes forward with something profound, I’m fine leaving my vote where it is.
The more I think about it, the more Drain Bead’s treating septimus’s claim like pure gold bothers me. If this were a normal game with just one scum faction, I’d be making a case against Drain Bead based on that, but with two scum factions, that messes up the reasoning.
I recall games where scum were just a little bit too quick to accept a claim or some result that wasn’t mod-verified. The details are fuzzy, but the gist is lets say someone claims cop and names, names. Town don’t know if the cop is legit, but scum do so they know the claim is real and that the results are reliable.
{Oh wait! We call it PIS - Perfect Information Syndrome, yay memory}
Anyway, I get a little bit of that from Drain Bead in her treatment of septimus. The problem is, of course, that with two scum factions, even if Drain Bead is scum, she wouldn’t know if septimus is other-scum. In other words, she can’t show PIS because she doesn’t have perfect information.
So I’m left with a more fuzzy interpretation of Drain Bead. I still don’t like it, but it isn’t as strong given the setup.
I think it’s easy (and I am very not immune) to get irritated with someone being wrong and then let that irritation lead to a bad feeling. I need to assess if that’s what I did with Total Lost.
I do think if people leave their votes on septimus now and add votes now and the worst happens and he’s lynched and is Town, I’d have some strong accusing thoughts about that. But being wrong in the absence of data is, as you say, a function of not knowing what the hell is going on. We’re going into a quiz without being able to study our notes beforehand.
I THINK that might be what happened with me for Total Lost. I allowed myself to get a bit irked that she didn’t see how asking for ambiguity to be cleared up makes a soft claim a bit firmer, and it came across as scummy. For tight now, I will
**Unvote Total Lost **
but I am going to re-read and try to figure out where my vote should be. Sigh. That’s a whole lotta posts to go through again.
As much as I hate to string along this Conspiracy Theory, there’s a very slight chance you could be on to something here…
We have seen the Role PMs for all Town and Scum roles. We have not been given any information from the Mods about any Third Party roles. It is *possible *that there is “another Wizard” there.
And if we assume for the moment that is indeed the case…
…it really doesn’t help us at all.
You’ve placed two votes so far today. Both were based entirely on post count, and both were one-off votes.
Do you plan to place a vote based upon anything that’s actually gone on in the game so far, or should we just put Inner Stickler, Precambrianmollusc, and Red Skeezix in a jar, shake them around, and pencil you in for whichever one falls out?
Another question to Prof. Pepperwinkle: I see you have promised to be “voting on one of the lynch leaders closer to EoD”.
Does that mean you’re going to do some analysis, or simply wait until just before EoD and pick someone who’s already ‘in the mix’, so as to avoid any complications that might come from taking a stand for something?
There are at least 14 players in this game who are “anti-Town”. That means that a least 11 of those are not currently “one of the lynch leaders”. Perhaps you could spend a bit of time trying to find them, rather than just counting posts and votes.
First off, I wish you and Mr. Foot a much better year in 2017 than you had in the last one.
I stand by a statement which I have posted a number of times toDay: D1 is inevitably a crapshoot. I don’t see anything that particularly sets one player apart from another (which is why I was going with LtL). Everyone’s potential scum (excepting, of course, myself and the Modkilled Dante G).
So over the next couple o’ days I will be examining the cases on the top 4 or 5 lynch leaders, and place my vote on whoever seems the scummiest. A singleton vote this early on should only be cast if the poster has at least a moderate degree of confidence in the culpability of the lynchee.
Analysis, for certain, as far as that will take me. Apparently you disagree with my thinking D1 is a crapshoot, but I haven’t seen anything in my last year-and-a-half of playing to think a successful Town lynch on D1 is anything but luck.
That’s actually a good thing, for purposes of later vote analysis. It’s easy for a Scum to park a vote on a teammate to build up credibility when that teammate is in no actual danger. It’s a lot harder to actually lynch a teammate for credibility.
That said, though, I’m not sure how often we’ll even have the opportunity for that third kill: We’ll only get that if we have three Townies die in one Night, and given the roles we know about, that would require three out of five of the Wolf kill, the Vigilante, the Hitman, the Patsy’s revenge kill, and the Wizard using up his last protection. There’s probably some third party that Night-kills, too (we’ll know soon enough, I suppose), but even with that, it’d be pretty hard for there to not only be that many Night deaths, but for three of them to hit Townies.
In other news: I think I may have actually found a genuine Scum slip. It’d been bugging me for a while, but I finally got the time to go back and look for the exact post and who made it. In [url=“http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19899878&postcount=292”]N0.292](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19916806&postcount=799), Thing Fish was summarizing the known roles.
Except that the Understudy isn’t one-shot: They completely assume the role they’re replacing. But the Mook and the Whelp are. This might mean that Thing Fish read the Mook/Whelp role first, before the Understudy, skimmed, and assumed that it worked the same way. And why would he have read a Scum role before a Town one? Possibly because he got it in a PM, possibly because he scrolled down to check his own team’s roles before reading Town’s. That’s good enough for me, on Day 1.
Unvote jsgoddess (though I still suspect her) Vote Thing Fish
(and yeah, I’m a bit uncomfortable about talk of snuggling connecting me to Thing Fish, but what can you do?)
I agree with you that Day 1 is mostly a crapshoot.
I don’t fully agree that a successful Day 1 lynch is “anything but luck”…but I can’t blame you too much for feeling that way.
But whatever you think about Day 1, your apparent strategy of “analysis doesn’t matter” is flawed. This is not a One Day game/ Analysis on Day 1, even if it does not help us Today, may prove useful later. Things that do not seem terribly significant on Day 1 may turn out to be part of a pattern after additional analysis - but only if they are pointed out in the first place. Scum who make statements on Day 1 are forced to stick to them in subsequent Days, often to their detriment.
Holy shit balls people. Take a little while to look at the rest of the Board and three pages fly by!
:smack: Yes. I had a really long post that quoted each post where the player in question stated their reason, then I just shortened the whole thing, because I thought it would be kinder. I also thought maybe I was over-analyzing. Looking at all of this, I can see that I should just lay it all out there in future.
This was meant to a be summary of Septimus’s stated reason for moving, I’m having trouble with the many layers of multi-quoting:
Post 231, Septimus quotes
The bolded bit appeared to be why Septimus un-voted Colby. My interpretation of the bolded remark is that only scum would vote based on a slip. I found that strange. And I find the justification for the un-vote also strange. Septimus has claimed, and no one has counter-claimed, but I find I have a niggling doubt about Septimus. I hope I’m wrong.
post 264 DiggitCamara
Here, my reading of the bolded portion is that DiggitCamara is stating that defense of another player would only occur if you knew something others didn’t. On Day 1 there aren’t very many sources of information. I may have read too much into this, but I don’t think so, so that means that you are therefore scum if you defend. Between the first two arguments, you are damned if you do, and damned if you don’t. Also, I note that DiggitCamara still has his (her) eye on Colby, but they are moving their vote anyway. This starts to be a theme.
Candidly, taking a quick detour here, Colby’s “slip” on its own, is not to me what is damning. What is damning is the larger context, especially as the week goes on and he says very little. If he had followed up his initial explanation with normal game play, he could have made a case for an honest slip of the tongue. Now, it’s hard to see it that way. I return to the comments.
Yes, sort of. That is what they stated. It seemed weak to me. Let’s look at it. The final vote change. Suburban Plankton, Post 541. This was a very long post. He did go and look at the entire posting history, and list it, of PlumPudding. There was a longer bit preceding this that pertained to other posts, so this is a shortened post.
This post really nags at me. Suburban Plankton states that he still thinks that Colby is scum, but he’s moving his vote anyway. He’s moving it to a person who almost certainly will not get enough votes to actually get lynched. I am new at this but the very elaborate nature of this vote move struck me as most likely to be scum trying to protect a teammate, while hiding behind numbers and statistics.
My gut call here now is that Colby and Suburban Plankton are both scum. It wouldn’t surprise me if Plumpudding was too.
I did a bit above. The slip in phrasing with “team” which has been followed by almost total absence of Colby. I would guess that many people started the week thinking that the slip was as good a reason as any on DAY ONE (I will get this, I will get this) to place a vote. Colby himself never gave them a reason to change it. Septimus was a contender, but he has claimed. Unless that claim is proved false, the cheese stands alone. (I’m sorry, I couldn’t resist.)
Hopefully, I’ve expanded enough above that my statement is clearer. Let me know if not, and I will.
True, thank you. I’m learning as I go.
Thank you for bringing this up/expanding on this. I have been wondering what happens with a fake claim. Wouldn’t the real EMT say something though? Or does that expose the real EMT to un-necessary risk too early in the game?
Oh yes, really my first. I watched the last one here. There were what, 10 players? I thought, oh, I can do that. Looks like fun. (Really, it is fun. But just reading this thread is a full time job!)
Day One (I am spelling these out so I stop fucking them up) is closing. I am torn. I am still convinced by my ToeJam vote. ToeJam will not swing this time unless something drastic happens. I am more and more convinced that Colby is also scum.
I ask you, my brothers and sisters, what to do? Should I move my vote to Colby? It’s not needed, but it won’t be useful where it is now. Or should I leave it on ToeJam in order to keep in place a solid second candidate in case something strange happens late in the Day?
