So the Draft is winding down and the Bears are done, so time to look back at how we did and try to understand what Pace was thinking.
Round 1 - Pick 8 (#8): Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia
My initial reaction was disappointment, but that was because I had fever dreams about Quenton Nelson making it to us here. In the last days I really started drinking the Koolaid on him. But this isn’t about what could have been.
Smith was the best player available at this point by pretty much every wonk’s board. Many even had him in the 3-5 range making this a modest steal. If I think about it dispassionately this is exactly what I want my GM doing in the 1st round. So, from a “value” point of view this is a big win.
Looking at his tape, his production and his measurables, there’s very little to dislike. My one concern is size. He weighed in at the Combine at 236, which is inflated a bit. He played at 225 at most. In today’s NFL a LB can be smaller, but if he fails it will be because he can’t stay healthy, can’t fill against the run and can’t get off blocks. It obviously didn’t hurt him in the SEC, and he should be able to put on some muscle in the pros. The good stuff is outstanding. Incredible speed, instincts and is a very sure tackler (but not a thumper). Great coverage ability and pursuit sideline to sideline and downfield. Hustle, heart and leadership.
How will he fit on the Bears? That’s another reason for my initial disappointment, but in retrospect that’s not as important. The meatballs are already calling him the heir apparent to the Bears HOF LB tradition, the next Singletary, and if that pans out, awesome. But heading into the draft ILB wasn’t a need. Trevathan has been terrific and he’s not going anywhere and we drafted Kwiatkoski a couple years back. Trevathan is actually a really good comp for Smith physically, so if they play together we’ll be pretty light but also pretty tough to throw over the middle on. Kwiatkoski has been hurt and Smith is absolutely an upgrade, but I wouldn’t call it a hole. Still, getting the best ILB in the draft and maybe one of the best in the last few years isn’t a bad thing and Chicago will love him.
Other options with the pick, Vite Vea, Marcus Davenport and Tremaine Edmunds. If Vea is Hailoti Ngata we may come to regret this. Davenport would have filled a more obvious need. Edmunds vs. Smith is the classic production vs. prototype debate, will be something to watch.
Grade: A-
Round 2 - Pick 7 (#39): James Daniels, C, Iowa
Very similar reaction to the first pick. Daniels is clearly a Nelson consolation prize (maybe Hernandez too) and a lot of people had him going in the 1st, ESPN and NFL.com rated him as the top Center ahead of Ragnow and Price. So again, tough to view this as anything but a good value. A well executed pick. We have potentially the most capable OL coach to scout this draft and if he says he’s the #2 Interior OL in the draft you believe him.
Great prospect and every criticism I would have is about fit and need, not skills or potential. He’s been pretty healthy, has been part of one of the best programs for developing OLs, and he’s got all the physical skills. You expect him to be starting as a rookie.
If I want to go negative, it’s why a Center? Daniels played OG early in his career so he can be flexible and Pace said he wants him working at Guard in camp. Having a versatile guy is great, but this means we’ll have a OG in Whitehair playing Center and a Center in Daniels playing Guard. It’s weird, but in Harry we trust and if you view him simply as the #2 or #3 OG in the draft all the fit questions dissolve away.
Other options with the pick, Harold Landry, Cortland Sutton, Josh Jackson. Our biggest hole is Edge and Landry was the right combo of fit+value here, but lots of people must have questions about the kid. Sutton reminds me of Alshon and this would have been about where we picked him. Jackson I raved about earlier and I’m probably more worried about our current CBs than most, the Packers got him so I hope I’m really, really wrong.
Grade: B+
Round 2 - Pick 19 (#51): Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis
The Bears traded away their 4th rounder (#105, they had a second later in the round at #115) and next years 2nd rounder to the Pats. Basically they gave up a 4th to accelerate a second rounder one year. A pretty fair price I think for a guy they must have loved. Ranked in the 3-8 range for WRs this again feels like the right place for him to come off the board, in a particularly weak WR class this may even be a high value pick.
Miller wasn’t really on my radar and historically I’m pretty biased towards size when it comes to WRs. That said, his tape is electric. The most impressive game was probably against a good UCF defense in the conference championship game. He didn’t play against the very best competition every week but stepped up big against UCLA, UCF and Houston.
We have a clear need at WR so the fit makes sense. We have similar guy in Taylor Gabriel who’s a bit smaller and a bit faster, but they’ll probably compete for reps at the WR3/slot position. Our bigger hole is at WR2 on the outside opposite Robinson, so at least on paper a guy like Sutton or Chark made more sense. Miller was more productive and is more NFL ready than either guy.
Other options with the pick, none, we moved up specifically for him. Already mentioned Chark, but Miller was obviously what the Bears wanted. Sutton was an option when we made the Daniels pick and I think I agree that OG was a more pressing need and Daniels is a better value there. We could have moved up for a OT or Edge, but there was nothing of value at this point.
Grade: B+
Round 3 - Pick 6 (#70): Trubisky Trade
Round 4 - Pick 5 (#105): Miller Trade
Round 4 - Pick 15 (#115): Joel Iyiegbuniwe, OLB/ILB, WKU (Acquired from Cardinals, 2017 2nd Round trade down)
This one is honestly a head scratcher. I can’t claim to know much about him and I haven’t reviewed any game tape apart from some cherrypicked highlights, but he was given a 5th-7th round grade by most of the big sites. Gets tough to assign value in this part of the draft since everyone’s board varies so much, so I won’t call it a reach, but can’t call it a value either.
My biggest issue with the pick is that he’s basically a poor-man’s Roquan Smith. I already mentioned that this isn’t a need area, so double dipping here is a strange move. He played outside in college and is best against the run, but in the pros he’ll need to play inside since he doesn’t have Edge skills. His pass coverage is so-so and his pursuit is really good. I think the reality is that he’s a depth player who’ll show up a ton on special teams. That’s okay, but I feel like you can find this type of player in the next 3 rounds.
Other options with the pick, Will Dissly, John Franklin-Meyers, Josh Sweat. Will Richardson, Shaquem Griffin. Dissly is my favorite option here. We have Shaheen and Burton who are pass catching TEs, but we haven’t been able to find a reliable inline blocker. We kept Sims who’s overpaid to be the 2-way guy, but Dissly would have made Sims expendable. Franklin-Meyers could have been interesting as a 5-tech which is a hole. Sweat is one of the few Edge guys with upside. Richardson would have been a potential upgrade to Massie at RT. If I wanted another speed/pursuit LB, Griffin is the one I wanted.
Grade: D
**Round 5 - Pick 8 (#145): Bilal Nichols, DT, Deleware **
Another small school guy without a ton of tape. Certainly is graded as a draftable player due to his size and physical traits so I can’t hate on the selection, but I have to wonder if we could have gotten Iyiegbuniwe here and gotten a better DL/Edge prospect with the previous pick.
Based on what little info is out there this guy looks to be a blocker eater and not much else. He’ll hopefully be a depth player behind Goldman or a DT in short yardage, but he’s got no pass rush.
Other options with the pick, one of a bunch of DBs who could provide depth. At this point a lot of guys look the same, but this is a really deep DB class and I have to think one would have more upside than Nichols.
Grade: C
Round 6 - Pick 7 (#181): Kylie Fitts, Edge, Utah
This pick I like a lot. He’s had injury issues which worries me more than a little, bit this is the time in the draft to roll the dice. He’s got 4th round talent and slid due to injury, so if he can get right in the pros this could be a nice upside option.
Tough to really do any deep analysis on this guy but the wonks are fans. He’s a classic 3-4 Edge though and that’s out biggest need, so if he can give us anything as a rotational guy on passing downs that’s amazing. Finding a productive Edge in the 6th round of this dog shit draft would be a miracle.
Other options with the pick, Luke Falk, Equanimeous St. Brown. I’m a draft a QB every year proponent and Falk is my favorite of the longshots. I love EQ St. Brown a bunch and think he’ll be a heck of a pro. The fact that another one of my guys went to the Packers sucks. If Miller is a slot, St. Brown could be the #2 of the future when White almost certainly flames out.
Grade: B
Round 7 - Pick 6 (#224): Javon Wims, WR, Georgia
Another Georgia guy! We finally grab another WR with some size which I’m obviously a fan of. Wims is a one year wonder, but when you’re the top WR on the Championship runner up you get the benefit of the doubt.
His biggest liability is straight line speed and quickness, which are pretty important for a WR, and his route running isn’t sophisticated. But he’s got natural ball skills and plus hands. He can learn to run routes and considering his level of competition you expect he has effective game speed. Hope he can contribute on special teams.
Other options with the pick, in the 7th round who knows? Bo Scarbrough might have been interesting as complement to Howard and Cohen. Josh Frazier is a cheaper version of Nichols, so we could have gone in a different direction there. Sieler would have competed at 5-tech.
Grade: B-
Summary
Well, we did pretty good in a all-name department with a Wims, Fitts and Iyiegbuniwe. We basically pick Georgia guys or small school guys…we’ll begrudgingly take a BigTen players when he falls in our lap.
Pace has historically been GREAT drafting in the middle rounds and then swings for the fences in the top 2 rounds. This draft feels like the inverse, taking safe, obvious players early and leaving you scratching your head in the middle rounds.
Day One seemed like it was straight BPA. Vic’s defense gets a toy. Day Two was all about the offense and helping Biscuit. Day Three seems like Pace handed the reins over to Vic and let him throw darts. The Bears have been good with defensive picks since Pace and Vic have been together and 2017 was all offense, so it makes some sense. Hopefully they didn’t get too cute.
WR was an area of need which was amplified when Pace fucked up with Cam Meredith. We responded by using 3 picks on 2 WRs, unfortunately one wasn’t EQ St. Brown.
OG was an area of need when Josh Sitton moved on and we addressed it not with Nelson but with Daniels, which is great.
OT was an area of need and is scarily thin right now, so lots of work to do there post-draft. Bad year for that position to be so weak in the draft.
Edge was an area of need that was only barely addressed. We’ll be counting on Floyd returning from injury and Aaron Lynch. Ouch, we may be giving Lamar Houston a call again.
DL was an area of opportunity, but probably not a critical need. A lot is depending on Bullard being a full time player. Marcell Frazier was a UDFA we could have used but he’s heading to Seattle.
LB was not an area of need but we double dipped at the position. I half wonder if they think Iyiegbuniwe can come off the edge, we’ll see.
CB and S were solid for us but depth is always welcome and this was a deep class. No picks there so the UDFA signings will be interesting to watch.
TE position is very crowded, we have 6 on the roster. We’ll cut at least 2, so not adding another rookie makes sense, but we don’t have a great blocker.
RB is set, but injuries happen. Doubt anyone got a look in the draft, we’ll be watching the waiver wire.
QB is set. Mitch is the guy, Daniels is the highly paid backup, Bray is Nagy’s security blanket from KC. Still…always like to be developing someone but I can see how that was a luxury.
I’m betting we got just 2 starters from this draft, but they will be really important starters. Hopefully we have 2 more high-end rotational players, Miller is a safe bet for 1. After that, fingers crossed.
