And with Chris Christie having dropped out* Haley likely has even better prospects in NH (at least). It’s unlikely that any Christie voters would default to voting for Trump.
.
.
*Former N.J. governor Chris Christie drops out of 2024 presidential election race
Has anyone seen any statistical analysis on how the terrible weather predicted for the Iowa caucuses could impact the outcome? I heard some pundits blathering on MSNBC, but it was stuff I could have said. “Hard to tell, lots of variables, who has the best ground game, etc., etc.”
They’re predicting 20 below temperatures and snow. So, my armchair speculation is that whichever candidate has the oldest base takes the biggest hit. And my recollection is that most analyses show that the older the cohort, the Trumpier the voters. So I’m wondering if this helps Haley.
Anyway, I was looking for some expert punditry beyond, “Yeah, who can tell?”
No.
Here’s a reasonable article on Iowa caucus polling, but it doesn’t mention weather:
I read a fair amount about polling and would be shocked if the weather will have a significant effect on what looks to me a race where one candidate has a big stable lead.
However, the final Iowa GOP caucuses poll from the legendarily best of the best Selzer and Company is yet to come out. If it shows a big Trump downswing, I may change my mind.
As for my total guess analysis: While old people don’t like cold, old people do like to vote. So it will all average out.
If Trump does suffer a shock loss, the weather will be part of his excuse. Ann Selzer would just say she messed up.
A caucus doesnt only measure which candidate you like best, but which candidate you are willing to put up with crap for. trump will win.
Where the pundits made a fair point (re: the weather) was the difference with caucuses. An inch of snow can reduce turnout by 1% (if I’m remembering correctly) in a “regular,” all-day election. The curve is not linear as the amount of snow increases. And bad weather favors the candidate whose base is likelier to mail in their vote.
But caucuses are different (obviously) and worse. You have to get there at a specific time and commit an hour (or hours). I saw some Iowans interviewed who said, yeah, I’ll be there, but probably not my mom and dad.
If the polls are correct, I don’t think Trump loses regardless. But if it’s a narrow victory over Haley, and she then wins NH, then she has “big mo,” as the talking heads put it.
Anyway, just pointless noodling on my part, but it seems to me, the weather would be good news for whoever had the more youthful base.
Chris Christie, apparently, isn’t particularly sanguine about Ms. Haley’s chances:
Candor is something MAGAs love about Trump. But he lacks self-discipline, savvy, maturity, temperament, knowledge, depth, breadth, and wisdom.
Agree or disagree with Chris Christie on this point, I like his breed of candor. He’s good in “The Emperor Has No Clothes” mode.
One of the guys on MSNBC yesterday talking about the Iowa caucuses and the weather, mentioned that in a lot of smaller towns the caucuses are held in school gyms. If schools are closed that day because of the weather, they’re probably not going to come out and open them up for the caucuses. So that could have an impact.
They said the storm could be the biggest in 50 years. I got stuck in a blizzard in Iowa on a business trip about 10 years ago – it took me about six hours to get from Iowa City to Des Moines on I-80. If they’re expecting this storm to be worse than that one, yeah there’s going to be problems.
I know it’s unlikely, but wouldn’t it be a hoot if Haley (or someone else) simply beat Trump in the primaries? He (and the MAGAt crowd) would still piss and moan about witchhunts and persecution, but in the end he’d be ineligible to be on the GOP ticket simply because GOP voters preferred someone else.
Chatting with a coworker in Iowa, he mentioned that schools are closed Monday anyway because of the MLK holiday. So, not sure what the guy on msnbc was talking about.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4403038-trump-loses-ground-haley-boost-new-hampshire/
Former President Trump has lost support in New Hampshire since November, while Republican rival Nikki Haley has gained support in the state’s presidential primary, new polling shows.
An Emerson College Polling/WHDH New Hampshire survey released Thursday found Trump with 44 percent support among Republican primary voters in the Granite State, down from 49 percent in November.
She does realize that Trump will be her opponent? He’s literally the elephant in the R room.
I want to see a clear difference in her proposals and Trumps. There should be a clear choice between the candidates.
I understand it’s difficult because Trump has ignored the other candidates and the debates. Haley hasn’t been able to confront Trump on any issues.
Wekl, she cant really debate an empty chair. She is doing pretty well debating an empty brain, however.
Has Trump ever really debated anyone? He just shouts and blathers. In a normal time she might make a great candidate. Pity normal left town awhile ago.
No, in a battle of wits he is completely unarmed.
As for Haley, we know she can’t knock off the orange elephant in the room. She knows it. She’s just hanging around in case he becomes a convicted felon and the party turns to her as the runner-up. I’d like to ask her: If you’re running for president and afraid to take on your main rival, why should we believe you have the courage to stand up to Putin, Kim, and Xi?
An interesting article from the BBC. It partly posits that she’s trying to reach back to the old style of Republican voters. Can she gather enough nostalgia to win, or just place/show?
“She’s boring," one Iowan said of Ms Haley, before quickly clarifying he meant it as a compliment. “We need to get out of the era of politics that is dominated by what someone tweeted.”
As a stalwart Democrat, I’m torn. Given the current political situation, I want Biden to be reelected. I think Haley is more likely to beat Biden this fall than Trump; now that Scott and Christie are out, she’s the best of a bad lot in the R field. For all her many flaws, she would almost certainly be a better President than Trump. But if Trump gets the GOP nomination, as still seems very likely, there’s at least a decent chance he wins in November, and that would be horrible for American democracy and the rule of law.
In a vacuum if you put them against each other, maybe. But Trump would go nuclear if he lost, specially to a woman. She cannot survive Trump telling his voters to stay home, and he would, he HAS already when he handed the Senate to Democrats by telling his voters to sit the Georgia runoffs. Nobody but Trump has a chance while Trump is alive.
Haley is the least offensive Republican by far. It would suck if she won but she’s not an existential threat.
Fair point, DigitalC. If the nomination slipped out of Trump’s hands he would probably pout and rant and rave all the way through Election Day. That would not help nominee Haley.
It’s better for Haley to win the nomination and potentially beat Biden than for Trump to win it and have even the slightest chance.
As was correctly noted above, Trump would not allow Haley to win. He would probably prefer Biden to win over any Republican but himself because narcissists must always have control, and causing the Republican who had beaten him to lose would be preferable to just taking the L.
But another benefit of Haley winning would be the complete demoralization of the MAGAs. They would probably sit out the election out of spite. But even if she went on to win, they would be completely deflated and have significantly less influence in politics and society than were Trump to win.
I do think, however, that Biden would handily trounce her no matter what.