She ought to at least stay until South Carolina’s over to see how that goes.
Only if it happens after T is formally nominated at the Republican National Convention.
No. As @Kent_Clark says, everyone who has “dropped out” will still appear on Republican primary ballots in the remaining states. Saying that that they’ve suspended their campaign is just shorthand that they’re no longer actively pursuing the nomination.
How a Trump death/disqualification would affect the nomination would depend to some extent on when it happens. If he chokes on a Big Mac tomorrow, then all of those “suspended” campaigns could quickly ramp up their campaigns again and the remaining primaries would proceed relatively normally. Whether Trump himself would continue to appear on ballots would probably vary by state.
If Trump dies later in primary season, then the overwhelming majority of delegates will already be pledged to him. Those Trump delegates would be free agents (although they may be required to vote for him on one or more ballots by state party rules). But an important thing to know about primaries is they often only decide how many delegates each candidate gets – the actual decision on who those individuals will be is taken later at state conventions or by party committees. It would be an epic scramble as ambitious politicians tried to maneuver their people into those delegate slots to give them power at the convention.
Finally, if Trump dies/is disqualified after delegates are determined but before the convention, then it’s an open convention. The delegates will decide who the nominee will be. These delegates are likely to be Trump die-hards and are unlikely to find Haley an attractive option. And the convention is not limited to nominating someone who was a candidate in the primaries. The Republican convention rules are that an individual must have support from a plurality of delegates in at least five states in order to be placed into nomination at the convention.
One bright side of the trump years: it has definitely broadened and deepened my civics knowledge. Thank you for sharing that, @flurb . I didn’t know (or have completely forgotten if i ever learned in my wayward youth) how the conventions would work in those different eventualities.
I’m rooting for Haley; not because i like her or want her to win the eventual presidential race, but because she appears to be just a Republican I can disagree with, and not the threat to democracy that trump, DeSantis, or Ramaswamy would absolutely be.
Nice taxonomy there @flurb. Thank you!
Also note that, if I am reading the Republican Party Rules right (see Rule #32), it only takes a majority of delegates at the convention to change the rules (e.g. to nominate someone by acclamation, or to remove any state rules binding anyone to any particular candidate), provided that a majority of the delegates of at least 8 states do so. (I think the Democrats require a 2/3 majority to change the rules at their convention.)
Every New Hampshire Democrat must now do their duty.
Which duty is what exactly?
I assume the ‘duty’ is to try to game the Republican primary to help Nikki Haley.
It doesn’t matter. She isn’t going to be the nominee. New Hampshire will likely be her high water mark, and she’ll probably lose Soouth Carolina. Losing your home state is not a good look.
Also, the other candidates, and the Republicans in general, are seeing the writing on the wall and are coalescing around Trump. Trump said nice things about DeSantis, and he’ll say nice things about Haley - after he beats her. One of those two is likely front runner for the VP spot, or at least a cabinet position if they want it.
But Trump is going to be the nominee. Unfortunately.
When Rubio lost Florida in 2016 he dropped out if I recall. It’s an extremely bad look.
Maybe, I know that’s the game DeSantis is playing at least. It’s possible that Haley might keep up the Trump opposition and hope to carry that over to the 2028 election. “See, I’m the one that warned you about him!” Or maybe not.
Well! That tears it!
I bet she doesn’t.
Why not stay in- just in case trump dies, has a massive stroke, or in in prison?
Yeah, the other campaigns are 'suspended" but Haley will be #2 in the polls and still in. Not a quitter.
There are ongoing costs to not suspending your campaign. Either you continue to pay staff and expenses or you suffer all the stories about staff not getting paid, top advisors quitting, venues being empty, engagements being cancelled, etc. A dying campaign is a bad look if the field does open up.
If you suspend: you bow out gracefully and preserve money that you can use if Trump eventually leaves the race.
Certainly she is staying in to further her brand. Perhaps she is also hoping to show Trump that she can shore up states that are weak for him – NV or MI.
Or maybe she doesn’t think she can beat DeSantis if Trump is out and so it is now or never. Spend the war chest because there isn’t going to be a better time.
Yeah, once her donors dry up, her campaign is going to be “suspended” whether she terms it that way or not. She doesn’t have the kind of personal resources to keep her campaign going herself. She may be staying in to “further her brand,” but that brand is going to look more and more pathetic when she’s sending out self-drafted press releases using the free wi-fi at Starbucks. She needs to cash in her chips while she still has any.
But aren’t the Koch brothers (or at least one of them) among her donors? They could fund her for a while.
They could, but they didn’t get to be billionaires by pissing away good money after bad. Haley has no path, and there are lots of other candidates for other offices that they’re supporting.
It’s a start
Ah, Nevada. Disclaimer: I’m damn near apolitical, so only know what I hear on the news between local weather reports, so I might be waaay off on this…
She’s on the ballot that was mailed out. So, you can fill it out and drop it in the mail. Feel good about yourself, doing your civic duty. However, that is meaningless, as I heard that delegates will only be given from the results of the Caucus. The Caucus that you have to sign up for in advance, ID in hand, and attend some kinda bullshit meeting first (I seem to think I heard it was 3 hours) so you can scream and yell with a bunch of MAGAssholes in a dilapidated firehouse. No Fucking Thank You! Not even for Free Beer. Well, maybe… Might as well drop that mail-in ballot in the fire.
Nobody has a chance against trump in rural Nevada.
I bet it’s really bad beer with some ironic label to “own the libs”.
The caucus is about “election integrity”.
“The NV Republican party was adamant about taking the Caucus route and the argument they gave was election integrity is a big issue for the Republican Party. The big difference between a primary and a Caucus is the Caucus is run by the party, they can do whatever they want, in how they organize it. So, for them, there’s no early voting, there’s no same-day registration, and they’re requiring voter ID. Those are things you don’t have in a primary election, but these are aspects of electoral reform that some Republicans like,” explained Dr. Dan Lee, a political science professor at UNLV, during a recent conversation with FOX5′s John Huck.
From the party that disproportionately gets caught in election fraud cases.
Good luck there Nikki…
Is Trump in cognitive decline?
Nikki: (first list several Trump gaffes, then pivots) Biden is in decline.