‘‘Statistically speaking the most reliable predictor of future behavior is past behavior.’’
My husband the psychologist. :rolleyes:
You are absolutely right that people do change and that not having cheated in the past is not a sure sign that someone won’t cheat in the future. The thing is, why risk it? theres 6 billion people out there, disquilifying those who’ve shown they can’t adere to the most basic rule of being in a relationship makes as much sense as not hiring the guy with a DUI to drive the school bus.
I had a human sexuality course in college and the subject turned to fantasies. The [del]crotch[/del] crux of the matter is that some people pursue a fantasy and are turned off, never want to do it again—it just wasn’t what they had expected at ALL. Others are meh about it, maybe like that frozen entree that looks so good on the package’s picture but fails to deliver Nirvana. Still others think the fantasy was every bit as good as they imagined, maybe even better, and they can’t get enough. Cheating may be like that…people have very different reactions
There was a fourth group WRT fantasies, of course: those who never would go through with it. Are people who have seriously considered cheating but decided against it for whatever reason? Uh, yeah, a few.
olives said, ‘‘Statistically speaking the most reliable predictor of future behavior is past behavior.’’ Note to Olive: I know, you :dubious:ed the statement.
What’s interesting about this old ax is the way it’s phrased. The “most reliable” doesn’t have to an overwhelming majority, or even 50% +. The SPD was the “most popular party” in the 1928 German election, but it managed less than 30% of the vote. It even had double its nearest competitor.
But some people superimpose “more likely than not” or “very likely” onto the “most reliable” notion, which it sometimes deserves and sometimes doesn’t.
Ahem. If we magically had the figures that something like “70% of cheaters repeat/30% don’t,” the question would remain whether a particular cheater in question was among the 70% or the 30%.
I think it’s very similar to what I typically tell clients about dealing with animals–every dog will bite under the right circumstances. But a lot of dogs have such a short list of right circumstances, and those circumstances are so very unlikely to arise, that you hear phrases like “wouldn’t bite a biscuit.”
Pretty much all of us would cheat given the right circumstances, and I think the people who are willing to cut cheaters more slack have a longer list of right circumstances than those of us who are harder-nosed about it. My list is like Rubystreak’s–one of us is going to die if I don’t. It’s so inconceivably unlikely that such a situation would actually happen, that I feel pretty damn comfortable saying that I would never, ever cheat. And if such a bizarre thing were to happen, it certainly wouldn’t happen a second time.
How likely “once a cheater, always a cheater” is to be true depends on someone’s list of right circumstances and how commonly those circumstances arise. “She was cute and you weren’t there for five minutes” is much more likely to recur than “I was drunk and we’d had a fight”, which is in it’s turn much more likely to recur than “we hadn’t had sex in five years, and you’ll fight me every step of the way for a divorce.” If it’s much above that last level of likelihood, it’s too likely to be true for me to entangle myself.
My take is that people change…most people do stupid things until their mid 20s or so - and one of those stupid things is often cheating. But that doesn’t mean they won’t grow up and become responsible for their obligations. And likewise, there are points in time where people become stupid - mid-life crisis points, points at which you question your life. These points are unpredictable in how you’ll react.
I don’t think because my boyfriend when I was seventeen cheated on me doesn’t mean his is cheating on his current girlfriend - or even likely to - 25 years later. We are still friends and - while it took him a long time to grow up - and he cheated on a lot of women from 17 to 25 - I don’t think cheating is in his current nature.
Now, my ex-husband was a cheater by nature, and although he has been with the same women for fifteen years, gossip says he still cheats.
Because you can’t get a guaranty that a person who hasn’t cheated in the past won’t cheat in the future. When someone hasn’t cheated previously, that still doesn’t mean that there is zero risk of them cheating in the future. After all, everyone had to have started cheating at some point.
If a person has gone through the necessary steps to change their lives, and that is a big “if,” then you get someone who has matured and knows themselves better.
I’m a firm believer that cheating should not be in a relationship which I’m part of. I put my wife’s odds at damn near zero, but that’s not simply based on her never having cheated in the past, it’s based on who she is.
I believe in the ability of people to make changes and I believe that it is possible for people to change enough that the odds of them cheating again are not significantly different that those who have not cheated.
YMMV
This logic suggests that once a person cheats, he should never ever be in any relationship with anybody again, ever.
Well, why risk being in a relationship at all? Why not get a goldfish or a cat and be done with it? Loving people is inherently risky.
“Has cheated” does not mean “will always cheat” any more than “has never cheated” means “*will *never cheat”. I have a friend who has been married for 28 years. He’s a good guy, a good husband, and a good father. Two years ago, he had a very short-lived fling. He’d never cheated before. He regrets it and has no intention of ever doing it again. Does one indiscretion negate a lifetime of good behavior? Should his family be broken up over it? Should he be branded and removed from the dating pool? Is he “a cheater” now?
You are right, but why make things even riskier then?
Once again i agree, but ill add that “has cheated” also means “can cheat”. Read the comments in this thread, some people think everyone can under the right circumstance and some people know they never would for any reason.
Wether one indiscretion is enough to break up his marriage is up to his wife to decide, i know in my case wether i tried to work things out or not the relationship would NEVER be the same and even if we stayed together for one, five, or twenty more years eventually it would end badly and it would be because of the cheating. And yes obviously he IS a cheater, what kind of question is that.
So essentially what you’re saying is that cheating is unforgiveable, and that for you, once a person has cheated, they are “a cheater” and any good qualities they may have are negated by that.
And if that’s how you feel, and that works for you, that’s fine. But I personally think it’s a little silly to define a person by any one thing they’ve ever done.
D’ye see that bridge? I built that bridge with my own two hands. But do they call me, ‘Peter the Bridge Builder?’ Nay…
After further thought i’ve come to the conclusion that cheating after 28 years of marriage is much much worse, i couldn’t even begin to understand how someone could possibly forgive that kind of betrayal.
And yet people do it all the time. Why? Because that is but a small part of the person and the relationship that’s been built over 28 years.
Well of course you’d say that.
I think its a lot more due to the fact that most people just cant stand being alone.
Or alternatively, most people are emotionally mature enough to not have quite such a black and white view of the world.
It’s called forgiveness. And love.
So people who find cheating unforgivable are emotionally immature? And you’re accusing others of black and white thinking?
While people do learn and some even change, on the whole, the best single predictor of what someone will do in the future is looking at what they did in the past. You ignore this at your on peril.
So then (and yes, this is skirting close to that “you fuck ONE SHEEP” joke) what carries more weight when you judge past behavior? All the relationships where the person did not cheat, or the number of times they did?
If I’ve had, say, four long-term relationships and lots of short-term ones, and cheated once in my life, what’s the best predictor of my behavior – my past fidelity or the time I cheated?