If I wanted to see Trump re-elected, I think I’d advise him to stay in Washington. His presence there is sure to stir things up, and maybe not in ways that are good for his campaign.
So imagine you want him to win. Should he go?
I don’t think it will change his chances of reelection either way.
I think (hope?) it will be of minimal impact, but he seems to have decided (or his campaign has decided) that increased conflict is the best way to get re-elected. I can imagine a scenario in which his presence increases the conflict. Clearly staying away will not increase the conflict.
So, if more conflict = winning then clearly it makes sense for him to go.
Whether staking your re-election on hoping Americans hurt one another is a proper course of action I will leave as an exercise for the reader…
Trump needs to recover votes in the suburbs. He lost many of them since taking office. Since he’s only got a few weeks left, and can’t reasonably hope to win them over through great policy initiatives, that leaves only appealing to their fears. Going to Kenosha will almost certainly increase conflict. Remember Trump divides, never unites. Therefore, going to Kenosha should, team Trump hopes, decrease stability and increase voter’s fears, which is a Good Thing in his world.
He is drawn to discord and hatred and resentment and unrest. Of course he’ll go to Kenosha.
There is an old Vulcan saying, “only Trump could go to Kenosha”.
And if he goes, MAGAts will follow to hear his drivel or defend him or whatever the hell they think they are doing. It’s SURE to cause more problems, if not full on battles in the streets. Which is what his election team wants.
- My good decent supporters wiped the BLM thugs off the streets. We need 4 more years
- BLM massacred my good decent supporters we need 4 more years to wipe them out.
Would be a ‘win’ for him either way. IMHO, nobody is going to be changing their minds about that asshole.
It has been demonstrated for 4 years now and polls continue to show that Trump has approximately 42% approval/support, nationally. Broken out by state, it goes as high as 49% in Ohio and one other state I can’t quite recall.
Nothing Trump says or does seems to shake that level of support, so it’s time to face the fact that this will be another close election and the only meaningful impact we can expect is for anti-Trump voters to show up in record numbers.
So if Trump going to Kenosha inflames violence, how is that supposed to play well with people in Kenosha specifically, Wisconsin more broadly, and living in the suburbs generally?
Things didn’t go well for him (polling wise) when he thugged his way into the demonstrations earlier this summer. I don’t see it helping his numbers among the voters he needs to win over now either. YMMV.
ETA: To answer the OP: Should the President go to Kenosha? As a president who is supposed to unite and do well by our citizens, no. politically speaking, I don’t see this helping him, so sure.
Oh, it’s a good bit higher in several states: 58.1% in Oklahoma, 57.3% in Alabama, 53.3% in Mississippi, etc.
He’ll go, there’s no question about that. He’s scheduled to be here in about 2 hours. The mayor (I think it was the mayor) has asked that he not coming. Even leaving politics aside, he said that police are already stretched pretty thin and they don’t want to deal with running security for him on top of everything else.
A few republic members of government said he SHOULD be here. One of them stated that he would have invited Obama or Biden if this happened at a different time and that he simply feels it’s important to have leaders in the area. Whether or not he actually feels that way, I have no idea.
I think it’s safe to say that the (openly racist) police chief wants him to come. Between both of them being Rs and the Governor of Wisconsin being very D, it’s one more slap in the face for Evers, who’s been fighting an uphill battle since March.
Also, I have two deliveries to make out that way today, so that’s another reason I’d rather he wasn’t here. And normally that would only take one driver, but one is North of the riots and one is South, so I’m splitting them up to avoid anyone having to drive through it.
I don’t think winning over Kenosha is his goal so much as hoping suburban voters elsewhere seeing the violence in this community will become fearful that it’s coming soon to them…so if you want to be SAFE vote for Trump, because he’s the Law and Order Guy!
Never mind that this playing out entirely during his watch.
I think him going to Kenosha and stirring up trouble helps his election chances, so yes, from his perspective, he should definitely go.
He’s also ignoring the pleas of the Democratic governor, so another win from his perspective.
I think more unrest and rioting helps him because it causes suburbanites to be more afraid. I don’t really understand the logic (Look how bad things are under my administration! Vote for me…), but fear isn’t all that rational.
But that’s why I added the bit about Wisconsin and suburban voters as well. When he used teargas to clear the streets so he could hold that Bible up earlier this summer, people saw through it and his numbers tanked. I don’t think we should automatically assume everything he does will help his election chances with those suburban voters.
A move like this may energize the base, but going against the relatively popular governor of a midwestern state who has asked him to stay away during racial unrest isn’t going to necessarily win him over any suburban or moderate voters.
I may be wrong, and YMMV, but there is recent precedent to show that when Trump tries to insert himself into these types of situations, they don’t always go as he hoped.
This is true, of course - things can always go pear-shaped, especially when Trump is involved. I think the calculus for this trip is more like:
(A) Trump goes, gives a speech, and there are no violent repurcussions = strong leader stopped the violence.
(B) Trump goes, gives a speech, protestors demonstrate, riots break out due to some combination of agitation from supporters and bad actors using protests as cover for riots and looting = look at how out of control these “Democrat cites” are = re-elect Trump.
I guess there is a (C) in which Trump specifically does something beyond the pale (like the tear gas Bible photo op), but I think he’s probably learned his lesson on that one.
Agreed on all points, Happy_Lendervedder. Also, I think Kenosha is too risky for a campaign. Like much of what Trump touches, it could turn into a clusterf***, causing his poll numbers to move the wrong way (wrong for him, I mean).
Trump never learns any lesson. To do so means admitting to himself that he had erred, which he will never, ever do.
No he shouldn’t go because he shouldn’t stir that pot. But he will.
I don’t see any good outcome, other than his having a stroke and collapsing into a drooling fatty mass. He’s going to praise the law enforcement and blame Biden, BLM, and Antifa for all the troubles in the world and declare that he alone can save white suburban women from people who don’t look like them. All he is capable of is feeding red meat to his racist, ignorant base.
We made it through Trump.
Tomorrow we have Biden in Kenosha.
Biden is also meeting with Jacob Blake. Trump refused to even talk to him/his family on the phone because the family wanted their lawyers to sit in (the lawyers sat in during a call with Biden/Harris).
If Trump hadn’t come to Kenosha (or decided against it after saying he would), I doubt Biden would be coming. I assume Biden knows it’s better to stay out of the way during riots/protests, but after Trump coming, I think Biden has to. After Trump called the protests ‘domestic terror’, said that Rittenhouse was just defending himself and pledging well north of $40m for Wisconsin “law enforcement and funding for addition prosecutors to punish criminals”…Biden really has to show up and do the opposite. Condemn the violence, sorta kinda endorse the peaceful protests and say that adding $45ish million dollars to law enforcement (in any state), is going to do more harm (in the long term) than good.