Stupid liberal idea of the day

The BBQ Pit
3501

rsa posted a link to an article that cites the US as leading in gun deaths. I pointed out that, not unreasonably, in a nation where guns are easily obtainable people are going to favor guns as their primary weapon; but that says nothing about overall per-capita murder rates.

To make a facetious example, suppose that Switzerland had five murders per year, two of which were committed with lasers; while Columbia had 50,000 murders that year, one of which happened to be with a laser and the rest with machetes. Switzerland would then have double the rate of laser killings that Columbia did.

3502

(cont.)
Now the USA does have a higher homicide rate than many other first-world nations; the question is, how much of that is attributable to guns?

To make a fair comparison you would have to break down USA homicides by gun vs. non-gun, and compare that to the gun vs. non-gun murder rates in other nations with varying levels of gun ownership, ranging from less than the USA to virtually none. If the guns=murder hypothesis is true, then the per capita non-gun murder rates would match closely, with the overall difference being almost solely due to gun ownership. If however the non-gun murder rates vary significantly, then some measure of the total difference would presumably be due to innately different levels of violence in those nations.

Back in the 1990s when US crime and murder rates were at a peak, a seminal study called “American Homicide Exceptionalism” concluded that the USA was innately more violent than the European nations it was being compared to. That probably has changed now, but to what degree I wouldn’t know. The study pointed out for example that the violence and homicide rate for African-Americans is shockingly higher than for whites; gun ownership alone would not explain the difference between the two populations.

3503

If you want to say that America is heartsick with violence, I cannot but agree. And guns are merely the preferred means, ok, fine. Sure doesn’t help anything that lethal violence is so available, that a fit of temper than might mean a broken nose elsewhere is a corpse here.

So, maybe the solution to a bad man with a gun is a good man with a gun, a good guy who carries a weapon around with him because he thinks he might need it. Don’t know any really good people who are that paranoid. Maybe fear like that is not necessarily a mark of bad character and poor mental hygiene, but fuck me if its a virtue.

3504

http://www.ijreview.com/2015/06/348197-obama-said-mass-shootings-dont-happen-in-advanced-countries-like-in-us-one-chart-proves-him-wrong/

3505

That chart actually proves him right (for his statement about shooting frequency) – in frequency of mass shootings, the US is #1 by far (38 in the last few years – no other country on the list has more than 3 (and most have 1 or 2). Obama didn’t make a comment about per-capita deaths, he made a comment about the frequency of such shootings – and on that point, he’s exactly right. No other advanced country comes close to the US in the frequency of mass shootings.

3506

You’d have to measure the USA, with a population of about 300,000,000, with other areas in blocs of about 300,000,000 each. I’ll concede the USA is probably still higher, but comparing the absolute number of USA gun deaths to nations with smaller populations is misleading.

3507

I’m not talking about deaths, I’m talking about the frequency of shootings. And the shootings happen a lot more frequently in the US – which was the point of the president.

3508

Every other nation on that list adds up to a total population of a little over 300 million, with a total gun spree deaths of 172, vs. the USA’s 227. Higher but not double the rate. (If the other nations had exactly the same population as the USA with their same spree death rate, it would be about 179 deaths).

3509

Meaning what? That when shooters in other nations go on a rampage they chalk up higher body counts, while the USA has more incidents where smaller numbers die? The basic point remains the same: that Obama’s assertion that the USA is uniquely plagued with mass gun killings isn’t supported by the numbers.

3510

In frequency, there are more than double the amount of mass shootings in the US even when population is taken into account.

3511

I tried, but I can’t document more than 1 mass shooting in any of these other countries during the specified time frame (2009 -2013)

I can, however account for nearly every single death, because the victims of these attacks conveniently matches the total victims on the charts.

One exception is Germany. The chart claims 23 deaths, I only found 1 killing with 16 deaths. Perhaps there were 1 or more other shootings to make up the difference.

The other is Canada. I can’t find any mass shootings during that time frame.
Look more closely at your chart. It is statistical smoke and mirrors which purports to claim other countries have mass killings at the same frequency or higher than the US. But what it claims as a benchmark for this is nonsense.

The number to look at co compare frequency is – frequency, which oddly enough is not specified in the chart.

The countries ahead of the US ALL have a frequency of … 1. That is during the time that the US had 38.

The reason I know this is because the chart DOES list the total number of deaths, which conveniently matches the numbers of victims of these single incidents.

Norway – Brevik, 1 mass killing of 77 people

Finland – maybe none at all. I found reference to one shooting of 8 people in 2007 and another of 10 in 2008, but neither is in the date range being compared. If you can find another, please post it.

Slovakia – Ľubomír Harman, who shot and killed 8 in 2010

Switzerland – Hermann Schwarz shot and killed 6 people in 2012

These are the countries listed as being higher on the list than the US, which the author falsely claims is a measure of frequency. What they seem to ACTUALLY be is a per capita death rate in terms of the cause of death.

Here are the countries below America.

Belgium – 1 attack – Nordine Amrani murdered 7 people in 2011

Netherlands – 1 attack – Tristan van der Vlis killed 7 in 2011

Germany – 1 attack?? – Tim Kretschmer kills 16 in 2009. I’m not finding another in that date range.

UK – 1 attack – Derrick Bird killed 13.

Canada – no attacks that I can find – though there there was a mass killing of 8 in 2014 (outside the date range)

France – no attacks that I can find within the date range.

3512

His second sentence makes it clear he was talking about frequency, not per capita deaths, and he was correct about the frequency.

For the number of deaths (which the President didn’t appear to be talking about), the median (per capita) death rates would give us a more accurate picture than the average/total per capita, since the Norway shooting was so enormous as to heavily skew the statistics.

3513

OK, point conceded.

3514

The only remaining question is whether **Clothahump **will also concede. My Magic 8 Ball says that he lacks the strength of character to admit error, but I’m willing to be proven wrong.

3515

Like Chuck Norris’ tears, that is something no one will ever live to see.

3516

There is small spool of “outtake” film of Norris’ crying. Its right after Bruce Lee tore out a handful of his chest hair.

3517

…

3518

Haberdash: You have absolutely no idea how cheap life is in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
Wait, don’t you want to tell me all the other things I have 'no idea about"? I have the idea you are a jackass, for example, but I might be underestimating.

3519

If you add up together every other country on that chart, here is (approximately) what you come up with:

Total rampage fatalities: 226
Total population: 303 million
Total incidents: 17

vs USA:

Total rampage fatalities: 227
Total population: 315 million
Total incidents: 38
So first off, you can see right away that the total number of incidents (the total frequency) is twice as high in the USA as it is in the Uber Country of EverywhereElseistan. So Obama was correct in his statement and Clothy’s own source proves him wrong.

But that stated, your point still stands. How does the USA compare with everyone else when you control for population? According to this chart…it’s right on par with everyone else. Almost the same fatalities and total population.

But I must question the source. Are these population numbers correct?
Are the rampage fatality numbers correct?
Boyo Jim has serious doubts as to this chart’s accuracy and I’m inclined to believe him.

3520

Nope. This issue is this statement that he made (emphasis mine):

It does. Period.