Survivor - April 27th - "Perilous Scramble"

I’d just like to point out that my earlier prediction in this thread was entirely correct, insofar as I predicted that there would be a tribal council vote tonight. I was just wrong about who voted for whom, and who was voted out. Details!

I said I kind of liked Cirie earlier, and I really liked her tonight too. I think she’s got a good chance to go to F3: everyone would want to compete against her in the final challenge, but nobody, nobody would dare take her to F2.

Not sure that’s as certain as it is in prior seasons, because with Courtney gone, Danielle is the only one who knows he won the truck, and apparently neither of them bothered to tell the rest of the tribe that part.

I hadn’t really noticed that, but you’re right. AFAIK, this is the first time that the “car challenge” wasn’t done out in the open, in front of God and everybody. I wonder … does that mean there might actually be two car challenges this season? Becase, let’s face it, a Yukon might be a big honking gas guzzler, but it isn’t exactly the standard fugly-mobile that they normally give away on this show.

And if they do have two car challenges, I wonder what that will do to the Car Curse … guess we’ll have to wait and see.

I think Terry’s got a big enough ego that he thinks he can break the Car Curse. I also thought it was strange they did the winning fo the car sort of on the sly, and that no one seemed to mention it when they got back.
“Oh, by they way, we went on and broke some tiles and Terry won a freaking SUV! So there!”

As jayjay said, good for Cirie for bringing the twisty. I didn’t think much of her at first, but I’m liking her more and more.

Yes, but so did Boston Rob … and Terry is no Boston Rob, you know?

Cirie might have the best evil look of any Survivor player ever. That “It’s all going according to my plan! Bwaahahahahaha!!!” expression she had going on was beautiful.

Ah - I’ve got no use for Cirie. I realize the game has nothing to do with survival, but she’s so damn useless. (Okay, she caught a fish. But what the HELL did she do in that RC?) I dislike players who go far by simply being useless and non-threatening, doing little other than stirring the pot among the folks who are actually doing something. Maybe because I just encounter too many folks like that in real life!

Is inShane’s implosion one of the most overpublicized bits of misdirection ever? The previews show him being played for a sap again. The guy really is coming across as clueless. Hard to imagine this helping his business prospects when he returns to the real world.

If Terry makes it to the F2, it would be really disappointing if he failed to win. To get there, he would have had to dominate against great odds like no other competitor I can imagine - with the possible exception of Chris. No matter that he appears to be a jerk - he is beyond question the best in my book.

So - what happens now. Shane goes next and then what? With the HI, Terry is safe next week. So even if he loses, he only needs to win the 2 next ICs to make it to the final 2. With Aras’ yoga background, I’d have to assume he’d be pretty tough on the final balancing challenge. Danielle as well.

And are we gonna get to see the disgusting food challenge?

I have no love for Cirie either. To put it simply, she bugs. She should have been voted out week 1. I’ll give her credit for making a move at the right time, though. Getting rid of Courtney definitely helps her.

I’m rooting for Terry all the way. His strategery could use a little work (he seems to think people will do what’s best for him just because he asks them to), but he’s a monster at the challenges and overall a survivor in every sense of the word.

It’ll be interesting to see if he can pull it off. Right now, I think he’s potentially got four votes: Austin and Sally (locked up tight), and maybe Bruce (out of respect for a good game) and Courtney (out of spite for her teammates). That fifth vote might be the problem, depending on who he’s up against. I can’t see Shane, Cirie, or Aras voting for him, as they’d stick with their tribemate. Maybe Danielle would cross over if they’d made some kind of deal to the final three or something but who knows. He’s got his work cut out for him, that’s for sure.

Next week’s the last chance to use the immunity idol right?

Dude, they’ve already eaten worms, snails, and raw fish like corn on a cob.

Oh, I just remembered what I wanted to say earlier… this late in the game, when you’re trying not to piss people off because they’re going to be on the jury if you make it to final 2, if I had just come back from a food reward challenge (particularly if I was Danielle and had just come back from my second in a row), and somebody had caught one (1) fish, I’d say, “You know, Cirie, since you caught it, you can have my share.” If there was a whole bucket of fish, no problem.

Except Survivor isn’t about survival-- not in the purely physical sense of the word. It’s about outwitting, outplaying and outlasting. It’s a game, and there are many ways to win. It’s not Eco-Challenge.

I really liked this episode, but I have a feeling next week’s is going to be even better. InShane and Terry were completely blindsided. Game on!

Yeah, we all looked over at Aras and asked him if he knew about that. “Not a clue,” he said…the room was kind of dark, and it kind of looked like he had a slight look of contempt on his face, but pretty sure it came from the fact that this had been kept from him. If I’d been the three reward challenge winners, it wouldn’t have been a bad idea to make a pact immediately prior to the bonus challenge to say that whoever wins, we don’t tell anybody about it.

Thank God. I’d rather have ten Terrys than one Boston Rob.

Exactamundo. You can try to be (1) Mr. Team Leader (and it’s almost always a guy)…they get booted as soon as they lose a post-merge IC. Or (2) Mr. Nice Guy. Always catching fish and building fires, try to get along with everybody. (This would be my personal strategy). They always get booted around this point in the game. Or you can be a (3) Strategizer. Kinda like (2), but you actually have a plan for who’s left, who’s allied with who, who you want to take to the final 4, 3, 2…who can be flipped. This is way over my head. Cirie seems to have this locked down.

rockle, what did Terry do that was stupid? (I’ve admitted to not having a strategic bone in my body…so winning IC always seems like a good plan to me.)

Don’t I clearly recall that in the first Panama Survivor, Burton won the car challenge and never told anybody (except, I believe, Jonny Fairplay, who was along when he did)? He still didn’t win. So the car curse has worked thus far whether or not anybody else knew about it.

It was nice to see something other than a straight pagonging last night. And it was even more fun seeing inShane’s horror at realizing how truly marginal he really is to the game. It took long enough, but we finally have some entertainment!

Baaaaad strategy. Because he won immunity last night, he’s a lock for the final four. If he had thrown it, the group would have ripped his hidden immunity idol from his grasp, and the next time he lost an immunity challenge, he’d be the one to go. Besides, I think the gang IS strategic enough to realize they could take his hidden immunity and still call the shots as to who gets taken out (although Courtney switching sides would have posed a problem).

If Terry had lost last night, would have tried to orchestrate the vote like this:

Terry votes for Aras.
Three vote for Terry.
Two vote for Danielle or Courtney.

Terry would have had the most votes, his hidden idol would have saved him, and Danielle or Courtney would have had the second highest number and would have been gone.

Things get reeeeeeal tricky next week if Terry loses immunity. Basically, Aras and Cirie have to convince Danielle and Shane to vote for Terry and then they have to vote for whoever they want off. This would force a 2-2 tie…and not sure if Terry’s idol gets automatically used, or if they engage in some sort of tiebreaker and only THEN would it get used. Also, this requires Danielle and Shane to TRUST Aras and Cirie…who have to pretty much tell Danielle they’re voting Shane off…and vice versa.

Almost would be easier at this point to let Terry make it to the final three and avoid the backlash of his hidden idol…

I guess I was merely espressing my personal distaste for folks who pursue this strategery. And, up to last night, I saw precious little strategy by C other than flying under the radar. Even now, her main argument for folks to bring her along is primarily “I’m so useless, I’m no threat to you. You can beat me anytime you wish.” And I guess I’m not a fan of her stupid self-satisfied giggle.

But maybe I’m mistaken and she has a “brick” in Brooklyn she wants to sell me…

Does anyone recall for sure how long T gets to hang onto the HI?
Someone above suggested it will only guarantee being a member of the final 4.
Sounds right, but I’m not sure.

I’m pretty sure that’s right. So if Terry wins IC next week, he goes to the Final4 and can throw away the idol. If he loses IC next week, he uses the Idol and goes to Final 4. And since every *knows * he has the idol, it’s existence doesn’t change the voting much.

So Terry and Shane have to realize that Aras, Cirie, and Danielle are pretty much unbreakable. But, Shane should be safe as kittens with Courtney gone–would anyone really vote for him to win it all? I don’t think so but if the alliance is as strong as it appears to be, they will vote Shane off (that assumes Terry wins immunity again) in order to take the alliance to the final four.

I started typing all sorts of scenarios, but I think there’s still too much open; i.e., if Shane wins immunity, the alliance has to assume Terry has the HII and plan accordingly, etc., and my head started to hurt.

Here’s my breakdown:

Shane should target Aras, then Danielle, then Cirie, to go up against Terry in the final two.

Terry should probably want the same thing, and hope to convince the jury that, compared to Shane The Moonbat, he should win.

Aras should target Terry, then Danielle, then Cirie and head into the final two with Shane.

Danielle should target Terry, then Aras, then Cirie and head into the final two with Shane.

Cirie should target Terry, then Aras, then Danielle and head into the final two with Shane.

By the way, I’m not convinced Cirie actually caught that fish. It wouldn’t surprise me if some production assistant got it on the line and then handed it off to her. I really can’t stand her.

I thought the HII was good until the final two; that is, you could use it to get to the final two but not to win the whole thing. Bueller?

I believe he can use it in the final four tribal council, but not in the final three…but won’t swear to that. Also, trying to remember if Aras said “it’s quite a while before the immunity idol is used” or if he said “it’s quite a while before the immunity idol become a factor.” If the former, guessing it gets used next week…